Analysing the impact of climate change on hydrological ecosystem services in laguna del sauce (Uruguay) using the swat model and remote sensing data

Assessing how climate change will affect hydrological ecosystem services (HES) provision is necessary for long-term planning and requires local comprehensive climate information. In this study, we used SWAT to evaluate the impacts on four HES, natural hazard protection, erosion control regulation and water supply and flow regulation for the Laguna del Sauce catchment in Uruguay. We used downscaled CMIP-5 global climate models for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 projections. We calibrated and validated our SWAT model for the periods 2005 2009 and 2010 2013 based on remote sensed ET data. Monthly NSE and R2 values for calibration and validation were 0.74, 0.64 and 0.79, 0.84, respectively. Our results suggest that climate change will likely negatively affect the water resources of the Laguna del Sauce catchment, especially in the RCP 8.5 scenario. In all RCP scenarios, the catchment is likely to experience a wetting trend, higher temperatures, seasonality shifts and an increase in extreme precipitation events, particularly in frequency and magnitude. This will likely affect water quality provision through runoff and sediment yield inputs, reducing the erosion control HES and likely aggravating eutrophication. Although the amount of water will increase, changes to the hydrological cycle might jeopardize the stability of freshwater supplies and HES on which many people in the south-eastern region of Uruguay depend. Despite streamflow monitoring capacities need to be enhanced to reduce the uncertainty of model results, our findings provide valuable insights for water resources planning in the study area. Hence, water management and monitoring capacities need to be enhanced to reduce the potential negative climate change impacts on HES. The methodological approach presented here, based on satellite ET data can be replicated and adapted to any other place in the world since we employed open-access software and remote sensing data for all the phases of hydrological modelling and HES provision assessment. © 2021 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.This work has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme within the framework of the project SMARTLAGOON under grant agreement No. 101017861. This study was also supported by the State Research Agency of Spain through the excellence certification María de Maeztu (Ref. MDM-2017-0714). Celina Aznarez was supported by the Doctoral INPhINIT–INCOMING program, fellowship code (LCF/BQ/DI20/11780004), from “la Caixa” Foundation (ID 100010434). Javier Senent-Aparicio was supported by the training grant (21201/EE/19) awarded by the Séneca Foundation in the framework of the Jimenez de la Espada Mobility, Cooperation and Internationalization Program. Adrián López-Ballesteros was supported by the Spanish Ministerio de Educación, Cultura y Deporte with an FPU grant (FPU17/00923). Juan Pablo Pacheco was supported by the Sino-Danish Center–Aarhus University, the University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and the University of the Republic, Uruguay. This work has received funding from the European Union?s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme within the framework of the project SMARTLAGOON under grant agreement No. 101017861. This study was also supported by the State Research Agency of Spain through the excellence certification Mar?a de Maeztu (Ref. MDM-2017-0714). Celina Aznarez was supported by the Doctoral INPhINIT?INCOMING program, fellowship code (LCF/BQ/DI20/11780004), from ?la Caixa? Foundation (ID 100010434). Javier Senent-Aparicio was supported by the training grant (21201/EE/19) awarded by the S?neca Foundation in the framework of the Jimenez de la Espada Mobility, Cooperation and Internationalization Program. Adri?n L?pez-Ballesteros was supported by the Spanish Ministerio de Educaci?n, Cultura y Deporte with an FPU grant (FPU17/00923). Juan Pablo Pacheco was supported by the Sino-Danish Center?Aarhus University, the University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and the University of the Republic, Uruguay. The authors acknowledge Paper Check Proofreading and Editing Services for proofreading the manuscript

Multi-Model Ensemble Machine Learning Approaches to Project Climatic Scenarios in a River Basin in the Pyrenees

This study employs machine learning algorithms to construct Multi Model Ensembles (MMEs) based on Regional Climate Models (RCMs) within the Esca River basin in the Pyrenees. RCMs are ranked comprehensively based on their performance in simulating precipitation (pr), minimum temperature (tmin), and maximum temperature (tmax), revealing variability across seasons and influenced by the General Circulation Model (GCM) driving each RCM. The top-ranked approach is used to determine the optimal number of RCMs for MME construction, resulting in the selection of seven RCMs. Analysis of MME results demonstrates significant improvements in precipitation on both annual and seasonal scales, while temperature-related enhancements are more subtle at the seasonal level. The effectiveness of the ML–MME technique is highlighted by its impact on hydrological representation using a Temez model, yielding outcomes comparable to climate observations and surpassing results from Simple Ensemble Means (SEMs). The methodology is extended to climate projections under the RCP8.5 scenario, generating more realistic information for precipitation, temperature, and streamflow compared to SEM, thus reducing uncertainty and aiding informed decision-making in hydrological modeling at the basin scale. This study underscores the potential of ML–MME techniques in advancing climate projection accuracy and enhancing the reliability of data for basin-scale impact analyses. © The Author(s) 2024.We acknowledge support from the María de Maeztu Excellence Unit for the periods 2018-2022 (Ref. MDM-2017-0714) and 2023-2027 (Ref. CEX2021-001201-M funded by MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033), including support from the KVORTEX predoctoral project (MDM-2017-0714-19-3). This research was also partly supported by the research project TwinTagus from the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation under grant PID2021-128126OA-I00. Javier Senent-Aparicio was also supported by the BC3 Visiting Programme - Talent Attraction

Differential expression of THOC1 and ALY mRNP biogenesis/export factors in human cancers

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>One key step in gene expression is the biogenesis of mRNA ribonucleoparticle complexes (mRNPs). Formation of the mRNP requires the participation of a number of conserved factors such as the THO complex. THO interacts physically and functionally with the Sub2/UAP56 RNA-dependent ATPase, and the Yra1/REF1/ALY RNA-binding protein linking transcription, mRNA export and genome integrity. Given the link between genome instability and cancer, we have performed a comparative analysis of the expression patterns of THOC1, a THO complex subunit, and ALY in tumor samples.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The mRNA levels were measured by quantitative real-time PCR and hybridization of a tumor tissue cDNA array; and the protein levels and distribution by immunostaining of a custom tissue array containing a set of paraffin-embedded samples of different tumor and normal tissues followed by statistical analysis.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We show that the expression of two mRNP factors, THOC1 and ALY are altered in several tumor tissues. THOC1 mRNA and protein levels are up-regulated in ovarian and lung tumors and down-regulated in those of testis and skin, whereas ALY is altered in a wide variety of tumors. In contrast to THOC1, ALY protein is highly detected in normal proliferative cells, but poorly in high-grade cancers.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>These results suggest a differential connection between tumorogenesis and the expression levels of human THO and ALY. This study opens the possibility of defining mRNP biogenesis factors as putative players in cell proliferation that could contribute to tumor development.</p

Declining water resources in the Anduña River Basin of Western Pyrenees: Land abandonment or climate variability?

Study Region: Mountains play a crucial role in supplying water for consumption, irrigation, and hydroelectric power. However, they are highly vulnerable to climate change. The Pyrenees exemplify a mountainous region undergoing significant changes, notably in land-use practisces, with a significant shift towards forest cover. Study Focus: We use the SWAT model, to analyse in depth two factors that most influence the hydrological cycle: land-use change and climate variability. The model is calibrated and validated using daily streamflow for the periods 1992–2004 and 2005– 2018. The following results were obtained for both periods: an NSE of 0.51, an R2 of 0.72, and a PBIAS of –12.67 % for the calibration period and an NSE of 0.55, an R2 of 0.75, and a PBIAS of –16.49 % for the validation period, indicating that the model accurately represented the daily streamflow. Subsequently, we designed three scenarios based on combinations of historical data to quantify the contribution of each factor. New Hydrological Insights for the Region: Comparing the scenarios confirms the downward trend of streamflow in the region and provides quantitative information on the influence of each factor on this decline. Notably, that land-use changes account for 41.4 % almost as much as the climate variability. Furthermore, we observed an increase in the frequency and magnitude of floods with an increase in flood parameters of about 40%. The alteration of these parameters is slightly mitigated by reforestation, leading to a decrease of 5%. © 2024 The AuthorsWe acknowledge support from the María de Maeztu Excellence Unit for the periods 2018\u20132022 (Ref. MDM-2017-0714) and 2023\u20132027 (Ref. CEX2021-001201-M funded by MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033), including support from the KVORTEX predoctoral project (MDM-2017-0714-19-3). This research was also partly supported by the research project TwinTagus from the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation under grant PID2021-128126OA-I00. Javier Senent-Aparicio was also supported by the BC3 Visiting Programme \u2013 Talent Attraction

Pneumonia treated in the internal medicine department: Focus on healthcare-associated pneumonia

Patients with pneumonia treated in the internal medicine department (IMD) are often at risk of healthcare-associated pneumonia (HCAP). The importance of HCAP is controversial. We invited physicians from 72 IMDs to report on all patients with pneumonia hospitalized in their department during 2weeks (one each in January and June 2010) to compare HCAP with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) and hospital-acquired pneumonia (HAP). We analysed 1002 episodes of pneumonia: 58.9% were CAP, 30.6% were HCAP and 10.4% were HAP. A comparison between CAP, HCAP and HAP showed that HCAP patients were older (77, 83 and 80.5years; p<0.001), had poorer functional status (Barthel 100, 30 and 65; p<0.001) and had more risk factors for aspiration pneumonia (18, 50 and 34%; p<0.001). The frequency of testing to establish an aetiological diagnosis was lower among HCAP patients (87, 72 and 79; p<0.001), as was adherence to the therapeutic recommendations of guidelines (70, 23 and 56%; p<0.001). In-hospital mortality increased progressively between CAP, HCAP and HAP (8, 19 and 27%; p<0.001). Streptococcus pneumoniae was the main pathogen in CAP and HCAP. Pseudomonas aeruginosa and methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) caused 17 and 12.3% of HCAP. In patients with a confirmed aetiological diagnosis, the independent risk factors for pneumonia due do difficult-to-treat microorganisms (Enterobacteriaceae, P. aeruginosa or MRSA) were HCAP, chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases and higher Port Severity Index. Our data confirm the importance of maintaining high awareness of HCAP among patients treated in IMDs, because of the different aetiologies, therapy requirements and prognosis of this population. © 2011 The Authors. Clinical Microbiology and Infection © 2011 European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases