Actuarial Model Assumptions for Australian Inflation, Equity Returns, and Interest Rates

Though actuaries have developed several types of stochastic investment models for inflation, stock market returns, and interest rates, there are two commonly used in practice: autoregressive time series models with normally distributed errors, and autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) models. ARCH models are particularly suited when there is heteroscedasticity in inflation and interest rate series. In such cases nonnormal residuals are found in the empirical data. This paper examines whether Australian univariate inflation and interest rate data are consistent with autoregressive time series and ARCH model assumptions

Risk of congenital anomalies for children exposed to PTU.

<p>Risk of congenital anomalies for children exposed to PTU.</p

Funnel plot of studies exposure to PTU.

<p>Funnel plot of studies exposure to PTU.</p

Flow chart of the study selection process.

<p>Flow chart of the study selection process.</p

Characteristics of included studies.

<p>Note: One study reported the outcomes with all congenital anomalies coded in ICD-9 (Korelitz et al.), one study reported the outcomes with congenital anomalies but without a clear definition (Lian et al.), and other 6 studies reported their outcomes with major congenital anomalies.</p><p>Characteristics of included studies.</p

Assessment of methodological quality by NOS.

<p>NOS: Newcastle-Ottawa Scale</p><p>▲: One score in the item</p><p>Assessment of methodological quality by NOS.</p

Congenital Anomalies in Children Exposed to Antithyroid Drugs <i>In-Utero</i>: A Meta-Analysis of Cohort Studies

<div><p>Background</p><p>Hyperthyroidism affects about 0.2%-2.7% of all pregnancies, and is commonly managed with antithyroid drugs (ATDs). However, previous studies about the effects of ATDs on congenital anomalies are controversial. Therefore, the present meta-analysis was performed to explore the risk of congenital anomalies in children exposed to ATDs in-utero.</p><p>Methods</p><p>Embase, Pubmed, Web of Knowledge, and BIOSIS Citation Index were searched to find out studies about congenital anomalies in children exposed to ATDs in-utero reported up to May 2014. The references cited by the retrieved articles were also searched. The relative risks (RRs) and confidence intervals (CIs) for the individual studies were pooled by fixed effects models, and heterogeneity was analyzed by chi-square and <i>I</i>² tests.</p><p>Results</p><p>Eight studies met the inclusion criteria. Exposure to propylthiouracil (PTU), methimazole/carbimazole (MMI/CMZ), and PTU & MMI/CMZ was investigated in 7, 7 and 2 studies, respectively. The pooled RR was 1.20 (95%CI: 1.02-1.42), 1.64 (95%CI: 1.39-1.92), and 1.83 (95%CI: 1.30-2.56) for congenital anomalies after exposure to PTU, MMI/CMZ, and PTU & MMI/CMZ, respectively.</p><p>Conclusions</p><p>The meta-analysis suggests that exposure to ATDs in-utero increases the risk of congenital anomalies. The use of ATDs in pregnancy should be limited when possible. Further research is needed to delineate the exact teratogenic risk for particular congenital anomaly.</p></div

Funnel plot of studies exposure to PTU.

<p>Funnel plot of studies exposure to PTU.</p

Results of sensitivity analysis.

<p><i>P</i>_het = <i>P</i> value of heterogeneity test</p><p>Results of sensitivity analysis.</p

Funnel plot of studies exposure to MMI/CMZ.

<p>Funnel plot of studies exposure to MMI/CMZ.</p