The welfare effects of freight travel time savings

In this article we investigate the welfare effect of freight travel time savings. The general setup of this article is to suppose that transport operators face a constraint on minimum travel time and to examine what is occurring when this minimum travel time is changed. We briefly examine the current assessment methods and propose a less restrictive approach, in which we analyse how different economic agents trade off between the duration and cost of the different operations that are used in production and transport activities. We analyse how the change in the minimum travel time affects the different economic agents and investigate how these changes should be valued in cost benefit analysis.freight value of time; cost benefit analysis

Costs and efficiency of highway concessionaires: a survey of Italian operators

Measuring the productivity of highway concessionaires is very relevant, especially when a price cap regulation is applied where tariff increases are based on expected improvements of productivity. Output may be measured in terms of traffic or network length, or a combination of both, while quality of service should ideally be accounted for. To measure productivity we consider only operating costs, as amortization and financial costs depend upon the original highway design and historical costs. A cross section analysis of the Italian concessionaires shows that: 1) operating costs depend on both traffic and capacity; 2) economies of scale are relevant but their estimate is very sensitive to the model specification; 3) there are large differences in efficiency among operators, indicating that there could be significant room for yardstick competition. We subsequently consider the main economic data regarding the major Italian concessionaire (Autostrade spa) over two decades. Revenues increased greatly, even more than traffic, while operating costs remained substantially stable in real terms, as the automation of toll collection allowed the company to reduce the number of collectors by almost half. Finally, a comparison between Italian and French concessionaires shows that the latter have much lower operating costs, which cannot be entirely explained by economies of scale or lower personnel costs.Highway; Regulation; Productivity; Price-cap

The welfare effects of freight travel time savings

In this article we investigate the welfare effect of freight travel time savings. The general setup of this article is to suppose that transport operators face a constraint on minimum travel time and to examine what is occurring when this minimum travel time is changed. We briefly examine the current assessment methods and propose a less restrictive approach, in which we analyse how different economic agents trade off between the duration and cost of the different operations that are used in production and transport activities. We analyse how the change in the minimum travel time affects the different economic agents and investigate how these changes should be valued in cost benefit analysis

L’impatto economico dell’Expo, dal sogno alla realtà

l'articolo analizza quanto gli studi d'impatto realizzati per l'Expo 2015 a Milano e quella realizzata per Torino 2006, rispettano una serie di criteri. L'analisi mette in luce un forte rischio di sovra stima dei benefici dell'event

Explaining, modelling and measuring the heterogeneity in shipper's value of time

The intention of the present article is to shed light on the heterogeneity of value of time among shippers. In order to deal with this issue, we first look at the reasons for which different shippers may value a time saving differently. This analysis makes use of a distinction between generic goods and specific (tailor made) goods. Subsequently, we analyse how this heterogeneity could be represented in the framework of Mixed Logit which is increasingly popular among the Transport Science research community. We concentrate on the issue of the selection of an adequate distribution for the random coefficients of time and costs attributes. In the final part of this article, we make an estimate of the value of time heterogeneity using data collected from shippers in Italy

Una stima realistica dell’impatto economico dei visitatori dell’Expo 2015

Many economic impact assessments of major events overestimate the benefits of such events because they do not consider the substitution effects. In reality, a more careful evaluation should consider only the spending that is additional to the area of investigation. In this paper, we focus on a recent event, Expo 2015, and consider a single impact item, the impact of visitors. We propose, in coherence with some methodological proposals made in various countries, to use a survey to distinguish the additional component of the visitors’ expenditure from the substitutive one. This allows to better measure the economic impact of Expo on Italy. The data show that almost all of the Italian visits substitute other presences in Italy, while just 50% of visits for foreigners are additional. Moreover, the number of visits of foreigners appears lower than forecasted. Putting together these elements, the additional expenditure generated by the Expo can be estimated up to 1 billion, or a little more in more optimistic estimates, likely to activate 1.3 billion euro of VA (2 billion in a more speculative case) to be compared to 4 or 4.3 billion estimated ex ante. This benefit, with that resulting from other impacts, should be compared with the cost of the event

Una stima realistica dell’impatto economico dei visitatori dell’Expo 2015

Many economic impact assessments of major events overestimate the benefits of such events because they do not consider the substitution effects. In reality, a more careful evaluation should consider only the spending that is additional to the area of investigation. In this paper, we focus on a recent event, Expo 2015, and consider a single impact item, the impact of visitors. We propose, in coherence with some methodological proposals made in various countries, to use a survey to distinguish the additional component of the visitors’ expenditure from the substitutive one. This allows to better measure the economic impact of Expo on Italy. The data show that almost all of the Italian visits substitute other presences in Italy, while just 50% of visits for foreigners are additional. Moreover, the number of visits of foreigners appears lower than forecasted. Putting together these elements, the additional expenditure generated by the Expo can be estimated up to 1 billion, or a little more in more optimistic estimates, likely to activate 1.3 billion euro of VA (2 billion in a more speculative case) to be compared to 4 or 4.3 billion estimated ex ante. This benefit, with that resulting from other impacts, should be compared with the cost of the event

Il valore della vita nell’Analisi Costi Benefici: concetti e valutazione

Le stime del valore della vita assumono un ruolo chiave nell'analisi costi-benefici. Tuttavia, il concetto non è sempre definito in maniera univoca e la prassi comune evidenzia, soprattutto in paesi come l'Italia dove non esiste una procedura unificata per l'Analisi Costi Benefici, forti differenze nei valori utilizzati e disomogeneità nelle giustificazioni teoriche adoperate. Il presente articolo propone un esame più approfondito del concetto, sia nei suoi aspetti teorici che pratici e delle diverse metodologie disponibili per fornire un’equivalente monetario a situazioni di rischio sulla vita delle persone. Si mettono in evidenza l’inadeguatezza degli approcci basati sulla perdita di produzione, e l’elusività di quella basata sul capitale umano. Malgrado i suoi limiti, il metodo delle preferenze rivelate o dei prezzi edonici, appare il migliore compromesso proponibile, atto a rappresentare molti aspetti del fenomeno studiato. In questo contesto, si fornisce anche una sintesi critica dei risultati empirici disponibili e delle raccomandazioni in uso in diversi paesi occidentali. Si suggerisce che è coerente con le preferenze degli agenti economici, utilizzare 1,7 – 2,1 milioni € come valore della vita nei paesi europei. Tale stima è molto inferiore alle stime più recenti in uso negli Stati Uniti. Questo rende necessaria la produzione di altre stime empiriche valide nel contesto europeo e una particolare attenzione per l’evoluzione della materia

CGE Analysis of Mega Events: A Timely Issue

CGE models are more and more frequently used to evaluate the real impact of mega events. However, the implementation of CGE models reveals a number of methodological features that may provide misguiding policy recommendations. A first series of issues relates to how time is represented in CGE models, where most applications make simplifying assumptions that can profoundly alter the realism of results. The proposed contribution aims at examining these various assumptions and evaluate their impact based on a reference CGE model. We review questions such as : 1- dynamicity. Many models still are based on a single period. In some applications, the multiperiodicity of the model is accounted for through a set of independent simulations, losing the interlinkages between the different periods. It seems however useful to produce quantitative results which show how much the model results are impacted by dynamic linkage, for this particular class of applications. 2- time concentration of visitors impacts. Time concentration is a striking aspect of events, and one can wonder whether the general annual periodicity used by typical CGE are suitable to represent phenomenon with such a time pattern. Using a model that neglects the time concentration of the phenomenon certainly risks provoking errors of large magnitude. 3- how infrastructures are often accelerated rather than generated by the event and how infrastructure legacy impacts span on an even longer period. Interestingly, a more accurate consideration for time issues makes other questions apparent. This relates to issues linked with the productivity of infrastructure, to the likely overcosts of these infrastructures compared with normal infrastructure provision, and others. We provide results on these issues and argument for the need to properly account for a whole set of more realistic assumptions in the models

CGE Analysis of Mega Events: A Timely Issue

CGE models are more and more frequently used to evaluate the real impact of mega events. However, the implementation of CGE models reveals a number of methodological features that may provide misguiding policy recommendations. A first series of issues relates to how time is represented in CGE models, where most applications make simplifying assumptions that can profoundly alter the realism of results. The proposed contribution aims at examining these various assumptions and evaluate their impact based on a reference CGE model. We review questions such as : 1- dynamicity. Many models still are based on a single period. In some applications, the multiperiodicity of the model is accounted for through a set of independent simulations, losing the interlinkages between the different periods. It seems however useful to produce quantitative results which show how much the model results are impacted by dynamic linkage, for this particular class of applications. 2- time concentration of visitors impacts. Time concentration is a striking aspect of events, and one can wonder whether the general annual periodicity used by typical CGE are suitable to represent phenomenon with such a time pattern. Using a model that neglects the time concentration of the phenomenon certainly risks provoking errors of large magnitude. 3- how infrastructures are often accelerated rather than generated by the event and how infrastructure legacy impacts span on an even longer period. Interestingly, a more accurate consideration for time issues makes other questions apparent. This relates to issues linked with the productivity of infrastructure, to the likely overcosts of these infrastructures compared with normal infrastructure provision, and others. We provide results on these issues and argument for the need to properly account for a whole set of more realistic assumptions in the models