Modeling the role of soil moisture in North American summer climate

Thesis (Ph.D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, 2001.Includes bibliographical references (p. 185-193).In this thesis, we investigate the physical pathways and mechanisms responsible for shaping the role of soil moisture in North American summer climate using a regional model. To investigate these pathways and mechanisms, we first identify and improve upon some of the deficiencies within the NCAR regional climate model (RegCM), which is used in this study. A new large-scale cloud and precipitation scheme that accounts for the sub-grid variability of clouds is presented and coupled to NCAR RegCM. In addition, a cumulus convective closure that tends to better represent convection in the Great Plains and Midwest is also implemented. Lastly, significant improvements are made to the specification of the initial and boundary conditions of atmospheric and biospheric variables. The combined results show considerable improvements when compared to the old version of the model and display reasonable agreement with observations from satellite and surface station data. Overall, these modifications improve the model's sensitivity, which is critical for both climate change and process studies. A series of numerical experiments are performed to investigate the local pathways relating initial soil moisture to future precipitation using the 1988 drought and 1993 flood as representative events. These experiments show that increases in initial soil moisture over the Midwest result in an increase in rainfall over the same region. The results suggest that local soil moisture conditions played a significant role in maintaining these extreme events. Soil moisture's impact on both the local energy and water budgets proves to be crucial in determining the strength of the soil moisture-rainfall feedback. An additional series of experiments are performed to investigate the remote soil moisture-rainfall pathways. The experiments suggest that an accurate representation of the domain-wide spatial variations in soil moisture is critical to accurately reproduce rainfall. The interannual temporal variations of soil moisture are less important. In addition to the local feedbacks, soil moisture perturbations have a pronounced impact on the large-scale dynamics, which tends to induce a storm track shift that enhances the soil moisture-rainfall feedback. Depending on the region, soil moisture perturbations not only impact the local climate, but also remote climates.by Jeremy Stephan Pal.Ph.D

The role of soil moisture conditions in the occurence of floods and droughts over the Mississippi basin

Thesis (M.S.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, 1997.Includes bibliographical references (p. 119-123).by Jeremy S. Pal.M.S

Connection between Spring Conditions and Peak Summer Monsoon Rainfall in South America: Role of Soil Moisture, Surface Temperature, and Topography in Eastern Brazil

A link between peak summer monsoon rainfall in central-east Brazil, composing part of the South American monsoon core region, and antecedent conditions in spring is disclosed. Rainfall in this region during part of spring holds a significant inverse correlation with rainfall in peak summer, especially during ENSO years. A surface–atmosphere feedback hypothesis is proposed to explain this relationship: low spring precipitation leads to low spring soil moisture and high late spring surface temperature; this induces a topographically enhanced low-level anomalous convergence and cyclonic circulation over southeast Brazil that enhances the moisture flux from northern and central South America into central-east Brazil, setting up favorable conditions for excess rainfall. Antecedent wet conditions in spring lead to opposite anomalies. The main links in this hypothesis are confirmed through correlation analysis of observed data: spring precipitation is negatively correlated to late spring surface temperature in central-east Brazil, and surface temperature in southeast Brazil is positively correlated with peak summer monsoon precipitation in central-east Brazil. The intermediary links of the surface–atmosphere feedback are tested in sensitivity experiments with the regional climate model version 3 (RegCM3). These experiments confirm that the proposed links are possible: the reduced soil moisture in central-east Brazil is shown to increase the surface temperature and produce a cyclonic anomaly over southeast Brazil, as well as increased precipitation in central-east Brazil. A crucial role of the mountains of southeast Brazil in anchoring the patterns of intraseasonal variability, and sustaining the “dipolelike” precipitation mode observed over South America, is suggested. The low predictability of monsoon rainfall anomalies in central-east Brazil during the austral summer might be partially ascribed to the fact that the models do not well reproduce the topographical features and the land–atmosphere interactions that are important for the variability in that region

Future changes in snowmelt-driven runoff timing over the western US

We use a high-resolution nested climate model to investigate future changes in snowmelt-driven runoff (SDR) over the western US. Comparison of modeled and observed daily runoff data reveals that the regional model captures the present-day timing and trends of SDR. Results from an A2 scenario simulation indicate that increases in seasonal temperature of approximately 3° to 5°C resulting from increasing greenhouse gas concentrations could cause SDR to occur as much as two months earlier than present. These large changes result from an amplified snow-albedo feedback driven by the topographic complexity of the region, which is more accurately resolved in a high-resolution nested climate model. Earlier SDR could affect water storage in reservoirs and hydroelectric generation, with serious consequences for land use, agriculture, and water management in the American West

Climate change to severely impact West African basin scale irrigation in 2 °C and 1.5 °C global warming scenarios

Abstract West Africa is in general limited to rainfed agriculture. It lacks irrigation opportunities and technologies that are applied in many economically developed nations. A warming climate along with an increasing population and wealth has the potential to further strain the region’s potential to meet future food needs. In this study, we investigate West Africa’s hydrological potential to increase agricultural productivity through the implementation of large-scale water storage and irrigation. A 23-member ensemble of Regional Climate Models is applied to assess changes in hydrologically relevant variables under 2 °C and 1.5 °C global warming scenarios according to the UNFCCC 2015 Conference of Parties (COP 21) agreement. Changes in crop water demand, irrigation water need, water availability and the difference between water availability and irrigation water needs, here referred as basin potential, are presented for ten major river basins covering entire West Africa. Under the 2 °C scenario, crop water demand and irrigation water needs are projected to substantially increase with the largest changes in the Sahel and Gulf of Guinea respectively. At the same time, irrigation potential, which is directly controlled by the climate, is projected to decrease even in regions where water availability increases. This indicates that West African river basins will likely face severe freshwater shortages thus limiting sustainable agriculture. We conclude a general decline in the basin-scale irrigation potential in the event of large-scale irrigation development under 2 °C global warming. Reducing the warming to 1.5 °C decreases these impacts by as much as 50%, suggesting that the region of West Africa clearly benefits from efforts of enhanced mitigation

Consistency of projected drought over the Sahel with changes in the monsoon circulation and extremes in a regional climate model projections

As a step toward an increased understanding of climate change over West Africa, in this paper we analyze the relationship between rainfall changes and monsoon dynamics in high-resolution regional climate model experiments performed using the Regional Climate Model (RegCM3). Multidecadal simulations are carried out for present-day and future climate conditions under increased greenhouse gas forcing driven by the global climate model European Center/Hamburg 5 (ECHAM5). Compared to the present day, the future scenario simulation produces drier conditions over the Sahel and wetter conditions over orographic areas. The Sahel drying is accompanied by a weaker monsoon flow, a southward migration and strengthening of the African Easterly Jet, a weakening of the Tropical Easterly Jet, a decrease of the deep core of ascent between the jets, and reduced African Easterly Wave activity. These circulation changes are characteristics of dry periods over the Sahel and are similar to the conditions found in the late twentieth century observed drought over the region. Changes in extreme events suggest that the drier conditions over the Sahel are associated with more frequent occurrences of drought periods. The projected drought over the Sahel is thus physically consistent with changes in the monsoon circulation and the extreme indices (maximum dry spell length and 5 day precipitation)

Climate projections over the Great Lakes Region: using two-way coupling of a regional climate model with a 3-D lake model

Warming trends in the Laurentian Great Lakes and surrounding areas have been observed in recent decades, and concerns continue to rise about the pace and pattern of future climate change over the world\u27s largest freshwater system. To date, most regional climate models used for Great Lakes projections either neglected the lake-atmosphere interactions or are only coupled with a 1-D column lake model to represent the lake hydrodynamics. This study presents a Great Lakes climate change projection that has employed the two-way coupling of a regional climate model with a 3-D lake model (GLARM) to resolve 3-D hydrodynamics essential for large lakes. Using the three carefully selected Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) general circulation models (GCMs), we show that the GLARM ensemble average substantially reduces surface air temperature and precipitation biases of the driving GCM ensemble average in present-day climate simulations. The improvements are not only displayed from an atmospheric perspective but are also evident in the accurate simulations of lake temperature and ice coverage. We further present the GLARM projected climate change for the mid-21st century (2030-2049) and the late 21st century (2080-2099) in the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Under RCP 8.5, the Great Lakes basin is projected to warm by 1.3-2.1 C by the mid-21st century and 4.1-5.0 C by the end of the century relative to the early century (2000-2019). Moderate mitigation (RCP 4.5) reduces the mid-century warming to 0.8-1.8 C and late-century warming to 1.8-2.7 C. Annual precipitation in GLARM is projected to increase for the entire basin, varying from 0 % to 13 % during the mid-century and from 9 % to 32 % during the late century in different scenarios and simulations. The most significant increases are projected in spring and fall when current precipitation is highest and a minimal increase in winter when it is lowest. Lake surface temperatures (LSTs) are also projected to increase across the five lakes in all of the simulations, but with strong seasonal and spatial variability. The most significant LST increases occur in Lakes Superior and Ontario. The strongest warming is projected in spring that persists into the summer, resulting from earlier and more intense stratification in the future. In addition, diminishing winter stratification in the future suggests the transition from dimictic lakes to monomictic lakes by the end of the century. In contrast, a relatively smaller increase in LSTs during fall and winter is projected with heat transfer to the deep water due to the strong mixing and energy required for ice melting. Correspondingly, the highest monthly mean ice cover is projected to reduce to 3 %-15 % and 10 %-40 % across the lakes by the end of the century in RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5, respectively. In the coastal regions, ice duration is projected to decrease by up to 60 d

Climate projections over the Great Lakes Region: using two-way coupling of a regional climate model with a 3-D lake model

Warming trends in the Laurentian Great Lakes and surrounding areas have been observed in recent decades, and concerns continue to rise about the pace and pattern of future climate change over the world\u27s largest freshwater system. To date, most regional climate models used for Great Lakes projections either neglected the lake-atmosphere interactions or are only coupled with a 1-D column lake model to represent the lake hydrodynamics. This study presents a Great Lakes climate change projection that has employed the two-way coupling of a regional climate model with a 3-D lake model (GLARM) to resolve 3-D hydrodynamics essential for large lakes. Using the three carefully selected Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) general circulation models (GCMs), we show that the GLARM ensemble average substantially reduces surface air temperature and precipitation biases of the driving GCM ensemble average in present-day climate simulations. The improvements are not only displayed from an atmospheric perspective but are also evident in the accurate simulations of lake temperature and ice coverage. We further present the GLARM projected climate change for the mid-21st century (2030–2049) and the late 21st century (2080–2099) in the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Under RCP 8.5, the Great Lakes basin is projected to warm by 1.3–2.1 ∘C by the mid-21st century and 4.1–5.0 ∘C by the end of the century relative to the early century (2000–2019). Moderate mitigation (RCP 4.5) reduces the mid-century warming to 0.8–1.8 ∘C and late-century warming to 1.8–2.7 ∘C. Annual precipitation in GLARM is projected to increase for the entire basin, varying from 0 % to 13 % during the mid-century and from 9 % to 32 % during the late century in different scenarios and simulations. The most significant increases are projected in spring and fall when current precipitation is highest and a minimal increase in winter when it is lowest. Lake surface temperatures (LSTs) are also projected to increase across the five lakes in all of the simulations, but with strong seasonal and spatial variability. The most significant LST increases occur in Lakes Superior and Ontario. The strongest warming is projected in spring that persists into the summer, resulting from earlier and more intense stratification in the future. In addition, diminishing winter stratification in the future suggests the transition from dimictic lakes to monomictic lakes by the end of the century. In contrast, a relatively smaller increase in LSTs during fall and winter is projected with heat transfer to the deep water due to the strong mixing and energy required for ice melting. Correspondingly, the highest monthly mean ice cover is projected to reduce to 3 %–15 % and 10 %–40 % across the lakes by the end of the century in RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5, respectively. In the coastal regions, ice duration is projected to decrease by up to 60 d

Effect of selective heart rate slowing in heart failure with preserved ejection fraction

Background Heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) is associated with significant morbidity and mortality but is currently refractory to therapy. Despite limited evidence, heart rate reduction has been advocated, on the basis of physiological considerations, as a therapeutic strategy in HFpEF. We tested the hypothesis that heart rate reduction improves exercise capacity in HFpEF. Methods and Results We conducted a randomized, crossover study comparing selective heart rate reduction with the If blocker ivabradine at 7.5 mg twice daily versus placebo for 2 weeks each in 22 symptomatic patients with HFpEF who had objective evidence of exercise limitation (peak oxygen consumption at maximal exercise [GraphicO2 peak] <80% predicted for age and sex). The result was compared with 22 similarly treated matched asymptomatic hypertensive volunteers. The primary end point was the change in GraphicO2 peak. Secondary outcomes included tissue Doppler–derived E/e′ at echocardiography, plasma brain natriuretic peptide, and quality-of-life scores. Ivabradine significantly reduced peak heart rate compared with placebo in the HFpEF (107 versus 129 bpm; P<0.0001) and hypertensive (127 versus 145 bpm; P=0.003) cohorts. Ivabradine compared with placebo significantly worsened the change in GraphicO2 peak in the HFpEF cohort (-2.1 versus 0.9 mL·kg−1·min−1; P=0.003) and significantly reduced submaximal exercise capacity, as determined by the oxygen uptake efficiency slope. No significant effects on the secondary end points were discernable. Conclusion Our observations bring into question the value of heart rate reduction with ivabradine for improving symptoms in a HFpEF population characterized by exercise limitation

Suppression of south Asian summer monsoon precipitation in the 21st century

We used a high-resolution nested climate modeling system to investigate the response of South Asian summer monsoon dynamics to anthropogenic increases in greenhouse gas concentrations. The simulated dynamical features of the summer monsoon compared well with reanalysis data and observations. Further, we found that enhanced greenhouse forcing resulted in overall suppression of summer precipitation, a delay in monsoon onset, and an increase in the occurrence of monsoon break periods. Weakening of the large-scale monsoon flow and suppression of the dominant intraseasonal oscillatory modes were instrumental in the overall weakening of the South Asian summer monsoon. Such changes in monsoon dynamics could have substantial impacts by decreasing summer precipitation in key areas of South Asia