Smoothing and filtering with a class of outer measures

Filtering and smoothing with a generalised representation of uncertainty is considered. Here, uncertainty is represented using a class of outer measures. It is shown how this representation of uncertainty can be propagated using outer-measure-type versions of Markov kernels and generalised Bayesian-like update equations. This leads to a system of generalised smoothing and filtering equations where integrals are replaced by supremums and probability density functions are replaced by positive functions with supremum equal to one. Interestingly, these equations retain most of the structure found in the classical Bayesian filtering framework. It is additionally shown that the Kalman filter recursion can be recovered from weaker assumptions on the available information on the corresponding hidden Markov model

Progress Towards Modeling the Ablation Response of NuSil-Coated PICA

The Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) Entry, Descent and Landing Instrumentation (MEDLI) collected in-flight data largely used by the ablation community to verify and validate physics-based models for the response of the Phenolic Impregnated Carbon Ablator (PICA) material [1-4]. MEDLI data were recently used to guide the development of NASAs high-fidelity material response models for PICA, implemented in the Porous material Analysis Toolbox based on OpenFOAM (PATO) software [5-6]. A follow-up instrumentation suite, MEDLI2, is planned for the upcoming Mars 2020 mission [7] after the large scientific impact of MEDLI. Recent analyses performed as part of MEDLI2 development draw the attention to significant effects of a protective coating to the aerothermal response of PICA. NuSil, a silicone-based overcoat sprayed onto the MSL heatshield as contamination control, is currently neglected in PICA ablation models. To mitigate the spread of phenolic dust from PICA, NuSil was applied to the entire MSL heatshield, including the MEDLI plugs. NuSil is a space grade designation of the siloxane copolymer, primarily used to protect against atomic oxygen erosion in the Low Earth Orbit environment. Ground testing of PICA-NuSil (PICA-N) models all exhibited surface temperature jumps of the order of 200 K due to oxide scale formation and subsequent NuSil burn-off. It is therefore critical to include a model for the aerothermal response of the coating in ongoing code development and validation efforts

Inverse Determination of Aeroheating and Charring Ablator Response

The Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) was protected during its Mars atmospheric entry by an instrumented heatshield that used NASA's Phenolic Impregnated Carbon Ablator (PICA). PICA is a lightweight carbon fiber/polymeric resin material that offers excellent performances for protecting probes during planetary entry. The Mars Entry Descent and Landing Instrument (MEDLI) suite on MSL offers unique in-flight validation data for models of atmospheric entry and material response. MEDLI recorded, among others, time-resolved in-depth temperature data of PICA using thermocouple sensors assembled in the MEDLI Integrated Sensor Plugs (MISP). These measurements have been widely used in the literature as a validation benchmark for state-of-the-art ablation codes. The objective of this work is to perform an inverse estimate of the MSL heatshield material properties and aerothermal environment during Mars entry from the MISP flight data

Preliminary Measurements of the Motion of Arcjet Current Channel Using Inductive Magnetic Probes

This paper covers the design and first measurements of non-perturbative, external inductive magnetic diagnostics for arcjet constrictors which can measure the motion of the arc current channel. These measurements of arc motion are motivated by previous simulations using the ARC Heater Simulator (ARCHeS), which predicted unsteady arc motion due to the magnetic kink instability. Measurements of the kink instability are relevant to characterizing motion of the enthalpy profile of the arcjet, the arcjet operational stability, and electrode damage due to associated arc detachment events. These first measurements indicate 4 mm oscillations at 0.5-2 kHz of the current profile

Significance of DSMC Computed Aerothermal Environments in the Rarefied Regime for Atmospheric Entry Material Response

During Mars atmospheric entry, the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) was protected by a 4.5 meters diameter ablative heatshield assembled in 113 tiles. The heatshield was made of NASA's flagship ablative material, the Phenolic Impregnated Carbon Ablator (PICA). Prior work compared the traditional one-dimensional and three-dimensional material response models at different locations in the heatshield. It was observed that the flow was basically one-dimensional in the nose and flank regions, but three-dimensional flow effects were observed in the outer flank. The objective of this work is to study the effects of the aerothermal environment on the material response. We extend prior work by computing aerothermal environments using the direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) code SPARTA and the CFD code Data Parallel Line Relaxation (DPLR). SPARTA is used to compute environment in the rarefied regime prior to 48.4s of entry where the Knudsen number is such that the Navier-Stokes equations can be inaccurate. Similarly to previous work, the DPLR software is used to compute the hypersonic environment for laminar then turbulent boundary layer assumptions from 48.4 s up to 100 s after Entry Interface (EI) along the MSL 08-TPS-02/01a trajectory. We observe that extending the aerothermal environments to times prior to 48.4 s modifies the thermal response of the heat shield at the surface and in-depth; however the effects on the recession are minimal. Additionally, using the assumption of a turbulent boundary layer versus a laminar one leads to higher surface and in-depth temperatures, larger recession, and a displacement of the peak heating and peak recession location

Full-Scale MSL Heatshield Material Response Using DSMC and CFD to Compute the Aerothermal Environments

During Mars atmospheric entry, the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) was protected by a 4.5 meters diameter ablative heatshield assembled in 113 tiles [1]. The heatshield was made of NASA's flagship ablative material, the Phenolic Impregnated Carbon Ablator (PICA) [2]. Prior work [3] compared the traditional one-dimensional and three-dimensional material response models at different locations in the heatshield. It was observed that the flow was basically one-dimensional in the nose and flank regions, but three-dimensional flow effects were observed in the outer flank. Additionally, the effects of tiled versus monolithic heatshield models were also investigated. It was observed that the 3D tiled and 3D monolithic configurations yielded relative differences for in-depth material temperature up to 18% and 28%, respectively, when compared to the a 1D model

Stable self similar blow up dynamics for slightly L^2 supercritical NLS equations

We consider the focusing nonlinear Schr\"odinger equations $i\partial_t u+\Delta u +u|u|^{p-1}=0$ in dimension $1\leq N\leq 5$ and for slightly $L^2$ supercritical nonlinearities p_c with $p_c=1+\frac{4}{N}$ and 0<\e\ll 1. We prove the existence and stability in the energy space $H^1$ of a self similar finite time blow up dynamics and provide a qualitative description of the singularity formation near the blow up tim

Heatshield Entry Modeling Using a Design, Analysis, and Optimization Toolbox

The Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) was protected during its Mars atmospheric entry by an instrumented heatshield that used NASA's Phenolic Impregnated Carbon Ablator (PICA). PICA is a lightweight carbon fiber/polymeric resin material that offers excellent performances for protecting probes during planetary entry. The Mars Entry Descent and Landing Instrument (MEDLI) suite on MSL offers unique in-flight validation data for models of atmospheric entry and material response. MEDLI recorded, among others, time-resolved in-depth temperature data of PICA using thermocouple sensors assembled in the MEDLI Integrated Sensor Plugs (MISP). The objective of this work is to showcase the capability of the Design, Analysis, and Optimization of Thermal Protection Materials (DAOTPM) software. DAO-TPM is a Python based framework that works as a link between mission design, aerothermal and radiative environment computation, Thermal Protection Systems (TPS) microstructure analysis, material response and optimization tools. The toolbox has a Graphical User Interface (GUI) that allows the user to build as well as run the various software and utilities used to design, analyze and optimize a heatshield during atmospheric entry

Status of the Super-B factory Design

The SuperB international team continues to optimize the design of an electron-positron collider, which will allow the enhanced study of the origins of flavor physics. The project combines the best features of a linear collider (high single-collision luminosity) and a storage-ring collider (high repetition rate), bringing together all accelerator physics aspects to make a very high luminosity of 10$^{36}$ cm$^{-2}$ sec$^{-1}$. This asymmetric-energy collider with a polarized electron beam will produce hundreds of millions of B-mesons at the $\Upsilon$(4S) resonance. The present design is based on extremely low emittance beams colliding at a large Piwinski angle to allow very low $\beta_y^\star$ without the need for ultra short bunches. Use of crab-waist sextupoles will enhance the luminosity, suppressing dangerous resonances and allowing for a higher beam-beam parameter. The project has flexible beam parameters, improved dynamic aperture, and spin-rotators in the Low Energy Ring for longitudinal polarization of the electron beam at the Interaction Point. Optimized for best colliding-beam performance, the facility may also provide high-brightness photon beams for synchrotron radiation applications

Towards the Prediction of the Mars 2020 Heatshield Material Response

Introduction: NASAs next mission to Mars, the Mars 2020, will use the same heatshield of the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) for thermal protection during entry, descent and landing. The heatshield is a tiled system made of Phenolic Impregnated Carbon Ablators (PICA) blocks [1]. PICA is a lightweight carbon fiber/polymeric resin material that offers excellent performances for protecting probes during planetary entry. The Mars Entry Descent and Landing Instrument (MEDLI) suite on MSL offers unique in-flight validation data for models of atmospheric entry and material response. MEDLI recorded, among others, time-resolved in-depth temperature data of PICA using thermocouple sensors assembled in the MEDLI Integrated Sensor Plugs (MISP). The objective of this work is to compare the thermal response of the MSL heatshield to the MISP flight data. In preparation to Mars 2020 post-flight analysis, the predictive material response capability is benchmarked against MEDLI flight data