Semiparametric Regression in Capture-Recapture Modelling

Capture-recapture models were developed to estimate survival using data arising from marking and monitoring wild animals over time. Variation in the survival process may be explained by incorporating relevant covariates. We develop nonparametric and semiparametric regression models for estimating survival in capture-recapture models. A fully Bayesian approach using MCMC simulations was employed to estimate the model parameters. The work is illustrated by a study of Snow petrels, in which survival probabilities are expressed as nonlinear functions of a climate covariate, using data from a 40-year study on marked individuals, nesting at Petrels Island, Terre Adelie

Water vapour line assignments in the 9250-26 000 cm (-1) frequency range

Line parameters for water vapour in natural abundance have recently been determined for the 9250-13 000 cm(-1) region [M.-F. Wrienne, A. Jenouvrier, C. Hermans, A.C. Vandaele, M. Carleer, C. Clerbaux, P.-F. Coheur, R. Colin, S. Fally, M. Bach, J. Quant. Spectrosc. Radiat. Transfer 82 (2003) 99] and the 13 000-26 000 cm(-1) region [P.-F. Coheur, S. Fally, M. Carleer, C. Clerbaux, R. Colin, A. Jenouvrier, M.-F. Wrienne, C. Hermans, A.C. Vandaele, J. Quant. Spectrosc. Radial. Transfer 74 (2002) 493] using a high-resolution Fourier-transform spectrometer with a long-path absorption cell. These spectra are analysed using several techniques including variational line lists and assignments made. In total, over 15 000 lines were assigned to transitions involving more than 150 exited vibrational states of (H2O)-O-16. Twelve new vibrational band origins are determined and estimates for a further 16 are presented. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved

Buying Years to Extinction: Is Compensatory Mitigation for Marine Bycatch a Sufficient Conservation Measure for Long-Lived Seabirds?

Along the lines of the ‘polluter pays principle’, it has recently been proposed that the local long-line fishing industry should fund eradication of terrestrial predators at seabird breeding colonies, as a compensatory measure for the bycatch caused by the fishing activity. The measure is economically sound, but a quantitative and reliable test of its biological efficacy has never been conducted. Here, we investigated the demographic consequences of predator eradication for Cory's shearwater Calonectris diomedea, breeding in the Mediterranean, using a population model that integrates demographic rates estimated from individual life-history information with experimental measures of predation and habitat structure. We found that similar values of population growth rate can be obtained by different combinations of habitat characteristics, predator abundance and adult mortality, which explains the persistence of shearwater colonies in islands with introduced predators. Even so, given the empirically obtained values of survival, all combinations of predator abundance and habitat characteristics projected a decline in shearwater numbers. Perturbation analyses indicated that the value and the sensitivity of shearwater population growth rates were affected by all covariates considered and their interactions. A decrease in rat abundance delivered only a small increase in the population growth rate, whereas a change in adult survival (a parameter independent of rat abundance) had the strongest impact on population dynamics. When adult survival is low, rat eradication would allow us to “buy” years before extinction but does not reverse the process. Rat eradication can therefore be seen as an emergency measure if threats on adult survival are eliminated in the medium-term period. For species with low fecundity and long life expectancy, our results suggest that rat control campaigns are not a sufficient, self-standing measure to compensate the biological toll of long-line fisheries

Avian cholera, a threat to the viability of an Arctic seabird colony?

© The Author(s), 2012. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in PLoS One 7 (2012): e29659, doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0029659.Evidence that infectious diseases cause wildlife population extirpation or extinction remains anecdotal and it is unclear whether the impacts of a pathogen at the individual level can scale up to population level so drastically. Here, we quantify the response of a Common eider colony to emerging epidemics of avian cholera, one of the most important infectious diseases affecting wild waterfowl. We show that avian cholera has the potential to drive colony extinction, even over a very short period. Extinction depends on disease severity (the impact of the disease on adult female survival) and disease frequency (the number of annual epidemics per decade). In case of epidemics of high severity (i.e., causing >30% mortality of breeding females), more than one outbreak per decade will be unsustainable for the colony and will likely lead to extinction within the next century; more than four outbreaks per decade will drive extinction to within 20 years. Such severity and frequency of avian cholera are already observed, and avian cholera might thus represent a significant threat to viability of breeding populations. However, this will depend on the mechanisms underlying avian cholera transmission, maintenance, and spread, which are currently only poorly known.The study was supported by the Canadian Wildlife Service-Environment Canada (http://www.ec.gc.ca/), Nunavut Wildlife Management Board (http:// www.nwmb.com/), Greenland Institute of Natural Resources (http://www.natur.gl/), Polar Continental Shelf Project (http://polar.nrcan.gc.ca/), Fonds Que´be´cois de la Recherche sur la Nature et les Technologies (http://www.fqrnt.gouv.qc.ca/), Canadian Network of Centres of Excellence ArcticNet (http://www.arcticnet.ulaval. ca/), Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (http://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/), and the Department of Indian Affairs and Northern Canada (http://www.ainc-inac.gc.ca/)

Climate driven life histories: the case of the Mediterranean Storm petrel

Seabirds are affected by changes in the marine ecosystem. The influence of climatic factors on marine food webs can be reflected in long-term seabird population changes. We modelled the survival and recruitment of the Mediterranean storm petrel (Hydrobates pelagicus melitensis) using a 21-year mark-recapture dataset involving almost 5000 birds. We demonstrated a strong influence of prebreeding climatic conditions on recruitment age and of rainfall and breeding period conditions on juvenile survival. The results suggest that the juvenile survival rate of the Mediterranean subspecies may not be negatively affected by the predicted features of climate change, i.e., warmer summers and lower rainfall. Based on considerations of winter conditions in different parts of the Mediterranean, we were able to draw inferences about the wintering areas of the species for the first time

Antarctic penguin response to habitat change as Earth's troposphere reaches 2°C above preindustrial levels

Author Posting. © Ecological Society of America, 2010. This article is posted here by permission of Ecological Society of America for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Ecological Monographs 80 (2010): 49–66, doi:10.1890/08-2289.1.We assess the response of pack ice penguins, Emperor (Aptenodytes forsteri) and Adélie (Pygoscelis adeliae), to habitat variability and, then, by modeling habitat alterations, the qualitative changes to their populations, size and distribution, as Earth's average tropospheric temperature reaches 2°C above preindustrial levels (ca. 1860), the benchmark set by the European Union in efforts to reduce greenhouse gases. First, we assessed models used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) on penguin performance duplicating existing conditions in the Southern Ocean. We chose four models appropriate for gauging changes to penguin habitat: GFDL-CM2.1, GFDL-CM2.0, MIROC3.2(hi-res), and MRI-CGCM2.3.2a. Second, we analyzed the composited model ENSEMBLE to estimate the point of 2°C warming (2025–2052) and the projected changes to sea ice coverage (extent, persistence, and concentration), sea ice thickness, wind speeds, precipitation, and air temperatures. Third, we considered studies of ancient colonies and sediment cores and some recent modeling, which indicate the (space/time) large/centennial-scale penguin response to habitat limits of all ice or no ice. Then we considered results of statistical modeling at the temporal interannual-decadal scale in regard to penguin response over a continuum of rather complex, meso- to large-scale habitat conditions, some of which have opposing and others interacting effects. The ENSEMBLE meso/decadal-scale output projects a marked narrowing of penguins' zoogeographic range at the 2°C point. Colonies north of 70° S are projected to decrease or disappear: 50% of Emperor colonies (40% of breeding population) and 75% of Adélie colonies (70% of breeding population), but limited growth might occur south of 73° S. Net change would result largely from positive responses to increase in polynya persistence at high latitudes, overcome by decreases in pack ice cover at lower latitudes and, particularly for Emperors, ice thickness. Adélie Penguins might colonize new breeding habitat where concentrated pack ice diverges and/or disintegrating ice shelves expose coastline. Limiting increase will be decreased persistence of pack ice north of the Antarctic Circle, as this species requires daylight in its wintering areas. Adélies would be affected negatively by increasing snowfall, predicted to increase in certain areas owing to intrusions of warm, moist marine air due to changes in the Polar Jet Stream.This project was funded by the World Wildlife Fund and the National Science Foundation, NSF grant OPP-0440643 (D. G. Ainley), and a Marie-Curie Fellowship to S. Jenouvrier

Winter extra-tropical cyclones as a driver of seabird survival: variation between and within Common eider populations

Mid-latitude atmospheric variability is mainly driven by a type of cyclone, the extra-tropical cyclones (ETCs) that have a primary role in determining local weather and its variation, inducing strong winds, precipitation, and temperature changes. ETCs have a broad range of intensities, from benign to extreme, and their paths, frequency and intensity may change with global warming. However, how ETCs, and cyclones in general, currently affect marine wildlife is poorly studied and remains substantially unexplored. Indeed, only few studies have examined the impact of tropical cyclones, another kind of cyclones, on the temporal variation of seabird survival and no study has explored the potential impact of ETCs, although the latters could be potential mechanisms behind some winter NAO-survival relationships highlighted in previous studies. A fortiori, very little has been done to study the potential heterogeneity within or between populations with different winter migratory tactics and undergoing different winter environmental conditions. We used capture-mark-recapture (CMR) data sets collected in two arctic (northern Canada and Svalbard) and one subarctic (northern Norway) populations of Common eider, Somateria mollissima, over periods of 19, 16 and 30 years, respectively and corresponding datasets of winter ETCs in each wintering area to explore their link with the temporal variation of adult annual survival. We found significant and negative correlations between ETC activity and eider survival but different mechanisms seemed to be involved among the studied populations and could explain part of observed winter NAO effects. The number of ETCs, extreme or not, was directly linked to survival in the Canadian population, whereas the wind speed of the strongest ETC impacted adult survival with time lags for the Svalbard and northern Norway eider populations. We suggest that climatic shelters found on the wintering grounds, such as fjords, could provide natural protection and partly explain inter-population heterogeneity