Evolutionary stability of behavioural types in the continuous double auction

In this paper, we investigate the effectiveness of different types of bidding behaviour for trading agents in the Continuous Double Auction (CDA). Specifically, we consider behavioural types that are neutral (expected profit maximising), passive (targeting a higher profit than neutral) and aggressive (trading off profit for a better chance of transacting). For these types, we employ an evolutionary game-theoretic analysis to determine the population dynamics of agents that use them in different types of environments, including dynamic ones with market shocks. From this analysis, we find that given a symmetric demand and supply, agents are most likely to adopt neutral behaviour in static environments, while there tends to be more passive than neutral agents in dynamic ones. Furthermore, when we have asymmetric demand and supply, agents invariably adopt passive behaviour in both static and dynamic environments, though the gain in so doing is considerably smaller than in the symmetric case

Behaviour change at work: Empowering energy efficiency in the workplace through user-centred design

Copyright @ 2011 University of California eScholarship RepositoryCO2 emissions from non-domestic buildings - primarily workplaces - make up 18 percent of the UK's carbon footprint. A combination of technology advances and behavioural changes have the potential to make significant impact, but interventions have often been planned in ways which do not take into account the needs, levels of understanding and everyday behavioural contexts of building users - and hence do not achieve the hoped-for success.This paper provides a brief introduction to the Empower project, a current industrial-academic collaboration in the UK which is applying methods from user-centred design practice to understand diverse users' needs, priorities, mental models of energy and decision-making heuristics - as well as the affordances available to them - in a number of office buildings. We are developing and trialling a set of low-cost, simple software interventions tailored to multiple user groups with different degrees of agency over their energy use, which seek to influence more energy efficient behaviour at work in areas such as HVAC, lighting and equipment use. The project comprises an ethnographic research phase, a participatory design programme involving building users in the design of interventions, and iterative trials in a large office building in central London

Semi-transparent brane-worlds

We study the evolution of a closed Friedmann brane perturbed by the Hawking radiation escaping a bulk black hole. The semi-transparent brane absorbes some of the infalling radiation, the rest being transmitted across the brane to the other bulk region. We characterize the cosmological evolution in terms of the transmission rate $\epsilon$. For small values of $\epsilon$ a critical-like behaviour could be observed, when the acceleration due to radiation pressure and the deceleration induced by the increasing self-gravity of the brane roughly compensate each other, and cosmological evolution is approximately the same as without radiation. Lighter (heavier) branes than those with the critical energy density will recollapse slower (faster). This feature is obstructed at high values of $\epsilon$, where the overall effect of the radiation is to speed-up the recollapse. We determine the maximal value of the transmission rate for which the critical-like behaviour is observed. We also study the effect of transmission on the evolution of different source terms of the Friedmann equation. We conclude that among all semi-transparent branes the slowest recollapse occurs for light branes with total absorption.Comment: 15 pages, 8 figure

The Shell Model, the Renormalization Group and the Two-Body Interaction

The no-core shell model and the effective interaction $V_{{\rm low} k}$ can both be derived using the Lee-Suzuki projection operator formalism. The main difference between the two is the choice of basis states that define the model space. The effective interaction $V_{{\rm low} k}$ can also be derived using the renormalization group. That renormalization group derivation can be extended in a straight forward manner to also include the no-core shell model. In the nuclear matter limit the no-core shell model effective interaction in the two-body approximation reduces identically to $V_{{\rm low} k}$. The same considerations apply to the Bloch-Horowitz version of the shell model and the renormalization group treatment of two-body scattering by Birse, McGovern and Richardson

A simple hourly wind power simulation for the South-West region of Western Australia using MERRA data

A simple simulator capable of generating synthetic hourly values of wind power was developed for the South West region of Western Australia. The global Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) atmospheric database was used to calibrate the simulation with wind speeds 50m above ground level. Analysis of the MERRA data indicated that the normalised residual of hourly wind speed had a double exponential distribution. A translated square-root transformation function yn=(√(1.96+ ye )−1.4)/0.302 was used to convert this to a normal-like distribution so that autoregressive (AR) time series analysis could be used. There was a significant dependency in this time series on the last three hours, so a third order AR model was used to generate hourly 50m wind speed residuals. The MERRA daily average 50m wind speed was found to have a Weibull-like distribution, so a square root conversion was used on the data to obtain a normal distribution. The time series for this distribution was found to have a significant dependency on the values for the last two days, so a second order AR model was also used in the simulation to generate synthetic time series values for the square root of the daily average wind speed. Seasonal, daily, diurnal, and hourly components were added to generate synthetic time series values of total 50m wind speed. To scale this wind speed to turbine hub height, a time varying wind shear factor model was created and calibrated using measured data at a coastal and an inland site. Standard wind turbine power curves were modified to produce an estimate of wind farm power output from the hub-height wind speed. Comparison with measured grid supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) data indicated that the simulation generated conservative power output values. The simulation was compared to two other models: a Weibull distribution model, and an AR model with normally distributed residuals. The statistical fit with the SCADA data was found to be closer than these two models. Spatial correlation using only the MERRA data was found to be higher than the SCADA data, indicating that there is still a further source of variability to be accounted for. Hence the simulation spatial correlation was calibrated to previously reported findings, which were similar to the SCADA data

Factors Influencing the Distribution of Blackchin Tilapia Sarotherodon melanotherodon (Osteichthyes: Cichlidae) in the Indian River System, Florida

The blackchin tilapia, Sarotherodon melanotheron, was first collected from the Indian River system, in Brevard County, Florida, in 1980. Since its introduction, this species has expanded its range northward along the coast approximately 37 km, to just north of Whites Point, Brevard County, and southward about 68 km to Vero Beach, Indian River County. Laboratory studies on salinity tolerance indicate an ability of this species to tolerate hypersaline concentrations of at least 100 ppt, and to reproduce in salinities of up to 35 ppt. The northern distribution of blackchin tilapia is almost certainly limited by cold temperature; however, the potential exists for extensive coastal, and possibly inland, invasion south of Its present limits

The identification and psychological treatment of panic disorder in adolescents: a survey of CAMHS clinicians

Background Panic disorder is experienced by around 1% of adolescents, and has a significant impact on social and academic functioning. Preliminary evidence supports the effectiveness of panic disorder specific treatment in adolescents with panic disorder, however panic disorder may be overlooked in adolescents due to overlapping symptoms with other anxiety disorders and other difficulties being more noticeable to others. The aim of this study was to establish what training National Health Service (NHS) Child and Adolescent Mental Health Services (CAMHS) clinicians have received in psychological therapies and panic disorder and how they identify and treat panic disorder in adolescents. Method CAMHS clinicians from a range of professions (n = 427), who were delivering psychological treatments to children and adolescents with anxiety disorders, participated. They completed a cross-sectional, online survey, including a vignette describing an adolescent with panic disorder, and were asked to identify the main diagnosis or presenting problem. Results Less than half the clinicians (48.6%) identified panic disorder or panic symptoms as the main presenting problem from the vignette. The majority of clinicians suggested CBT would be their treatment approach. However, few identified an evidence-based treatment protocol for working with young people with panic disorder. Almost half the sample had received no training in cognitive behaviour therapy (CBT) and around a fifth had received no training in delivering psychological treatments. Conclusions Only half of CAMHS clinicians identified panic disorder from a vignette and although CBT treatments are widely offered, only a minority of adolescents with panic disorder are receiving treatments developed for, and evaluated with young people with panic disorder. There is a vital need for clinician training, the use of tools that aid identification and the implementation of evidence-based treatments within CAMHS

A grid-based coverage analysis of urban mmWave vehicular ad hoc networks

In this letter, a tractable coverage model, specifically designed for urban vehicular ad hoc networks, is presented to aid a better system designer. This is achieved through the use of a model based upon line processes, which simplifies the analysis. It is found, that even in crowded interferer scenarios, mmWave vehicular communications can establish reliable links with an SINR threshold of around 5 dB, with a coverage probability of approximately 0.8 at 50 m separation between a typical transmitter and a typical receiver. These results, and their inference towards the design and deployment of urban vehicular ad-hoc networks, may impact the developments of future vehicle- to-vehicle (V2V) applications and services