Effects of Contact Network Models on Stochastic Epidemic Simulations

The importance of modeling the spread of epidemics through a population has led to the development of mathematical models for infectious disease propagation. A number of empirical studies have collected and analyzed data on contacts between individuals using a variety of sensors. Typically one uses such data to fit a probabilistic model of network contacts over which a disease may propagate. In this paper, we investigate the effects of different contact network models with varying levels of complexity on the outcomes of simulated epidemics using a stochastic Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model. We evaluate these network models on six datasets of contacts between people in a variety of settings. Our results demonstrate that the choice of network model can have a significant effect on how closely the outcomes of an epidemic simulation on a simulated network match the outcomes on the actual network constructed from the sensor data. In particular, preserving degrees of nodes appears to be much more important than preserving cluster structure for accurate epidemic simulations.Comment: To appear at International Conference on Social Informatics (SocInfo) 201

Steering in computational science: mesoscale modelling and simulation

This paper outlines the benefits of computational steering for high performance computing applications. Lattice-Boltzmann mesoscale fluid simulations of binary and ternary amphiphilic fluids in two and three dimensions are used to illustrate the substantial improvements which computational steering offers in terms of resource efficiency and time to discover new physics. We discuss details of our current steering implementations and describe their future outlook with the advent of computational grids.Comment: 40 pages, 11 figures. Accepted for publication in Contemporary Physic

Novel Use of Surveillance Data to Detect HIV-Infected Persons with Sustained High Viral Load and Durable Virologic Suppression in New York City

Background: Monitoring of the uptake and efficacy of ART in a population often relies on cross-sectional data, providing limited information that could be used to design specific targeted intervention programs. Using repeated measures of viral load (VL) surveillance data, we aimed to estimate and characterize the proportion of persons living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA) in New York City (NYC) with sustained high VL (SHVL) and durably suppressed VL (DSVL). Methods/Principal Findings: Retrospective cohort study of all persons reported to the NYC HIV Surveillance Registry who were alive and $12 years old by the end of 2005 and who had$2 VL tests in 2006 and 2007. SHVL and DSVL were defined as PLWHA with 2 consecutive VLs $100,000 copies/mL and PLWHA with all VLs #400 copies/mL, respectively. Logistic regression models using generalized estimating equations were used to model the association between SHVL and covariates. There were 56,836 PLWHA, of whom 7 % had SHVL and 38 % had DSVL. Compared to those without SHVL, persons with SHVL were more likely to be younger, black and have injection drug use (IDU) risk. PLWHA with SHVL were more likely to die by 2007 and be younger by nearly ten years, on average. Conclusions/Significance: Nearly 60 % of PLWHA in 2005 had multiple VLs, of whom almost 40 % had DSVL, suggesting successful ART uptake. A small proportion had SHVL, representing groups known to have suboptimal engagement in care. This group should be targeted for additional outreach to reduce morbidity and secondary transmission. Measures based o

Virtual versus Physical Channel for Sex Networking in Men Having Sex with Men of Sauna Customers in the City of Hong Kong

BACKGROUND: Advances in communication technology may affect networking pattern, thereby influencing the dynamics of sex partnership. The aim of the study is to explore the impacts of partner sourcing through internet and related channels on exposure risk to sexually transmitted infections (STI) including HIV. METHODS: Using venue-based sampling, a cross-sectional questionnaire survey was conducted at saunas frequented by men having sex with men (MSM) in Hong Kong. Comparison was made between MSM sourcing partners through physical venues alone versus concomitant users of physical and virtual channels, the latter referring to internet and smart-phone applications, using bivariate logistic regression. RESULTS: Over a 7-week study period, 299 MSM were recruited from 9 saunas. Three main types of sex partners were distinguished: steady (46.8%), regular (26.4%) and casual (96.0%) partners. Users of sauna (n = 78) were compared with concomitant users of saunas and virtual channels (n = 179) for partner sourcing. Sauna-visiting virtual channel users were younger and inclined to use selected physical venues for sourcing partners. Smart-phone users (n = 90) were not different from other internet-users in terms of age, education level and single/mixed self-identified body appearance. Classifying respondents into high risk and low risk MSM by their frequency of condom use, concomitant use of both sauna and virtual channels accounted for a higher proportion in the high risk category (71.6% vs. 58.2%, OR = 1.81, p<0.05). In virtual channel users, partner sourcing through smart-phone was not associated with a higher practice of unprotected sex. CONCLUSION: MSM sauna customers commonly use virtual channels for sex partner sourcing. Unprotected sex is more prevalent in sauna customers who use virtual channel for sex partner sourcing. While the popularity of smart-phone is rising, its use is not associated with increased behavioural risk for HIV/STI transmission

HIV incidence estimate combining HIV/AIDS surveillance, testing history information and HIV test to identify recent infections in Lazio, Italy

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The application of serological methods in HIV/AIDS routine surveillance systems to identify persons with recently acquired HIV infection has been proposed as a tool which may provide an accurate description of the current transmission patterns of HIV. Using the information about recent infection it is possible to estimate HIV incidence, according to the model proposed by Karon et al. in 2008, that accounts for the effect of testing practices on the number of persons detected as recently infected.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We used data from HIV/AIDS surveillance in the period 2004-2008 to identify newly diagnosed persons. These were classified with recent/non-recent infection on the basis of an avidity index result, or laboratory evidence of recently acquired infection (i.e., previous documented negative HIV test within 6 months; or presence of HIV RNA or p24 antigen with simultaneous negative/indeterminate HIV antibody test). Multiple imputation was used to impute missing information. The incidence estimate was obtained as the number of persons detected as recently infected divided by the estimated probability of detection. Estimates were stratified by calendar year, transmission category, gender and nationality.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>During the period considered 3,633 new HIV diagnoses were reported to the regional surveillance system. Applying the model, we estimated that in 2004-2008 there were 5,465 new infections (95%CI: 4,538-6,461); stratifying by transmission category, the estimated number of infections was 2,599 among heterosexual contacts, 2,208 among men-who-have-sex-with-men, and 763 among injecting-drug-users. In 2008 there were 952 (625-1,229) new HIV infections (incidence of 19.9 per 100,000 person-years). In 2008, for men-who-have-sex-with-men (691 per 100,000 person-years) and injecting drug users (577 per 100,000 person-years) the incidence remained comparatively high with respect to the general population, although a decreasing pattern during 2004-2008 was observed for injecting-drug-users.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>These estimates suggest that the transmission of HIV infection in Lazio remains frequent and men-who-have-sex-with men and injecting-drug-users are still greatly affected although the majority of new infections occurs among heterosexual individuals.</p

Social, Structural and Behavioral Determinants of Overall Health Status in a Cohort of Homeless and Unstably Housed HIV-Infected Men

Background: Previous studies indicate multiple influences on the overall health of HIV-infected persons; however, few assess and rank longitudinal changes in social and structural barriers that are disproportionately found in impoverished populations. We empirically ranked factors that longitudinally impact the overall health status of HIV-infected homeless and unstably housed men. Methods and Findings: Between 2002 and 2008, a cohort of 288 HIV+ homeless and unstably housed men was recruited and followed over time. The population was 60 % non-Caucasian and the median age was 41 years; 67 % of study participants reported recent drug use and 20 % reported recent homelessness. At baseline, the median CD4 cell count was 349 cells/ml and 18 % of eligible persons (CD4,350) took antiretroviral therapy (ART). Marginal structural models were used to estimate the population-level effects of behavioral, social, and structural factors on overall physical and mental health status (measured by the SF-36), and targeted variable importance (tVIM) was used to empirically rank factors by their influence. After adjusting for confounding, and in order of their influence, the three factors with the strongest negative effects on physical health were unmet subsistence needs, Caucasian race, and no reported source of instrumental support. The three factors with the strongest negative effects on mental health were unmet subsistence needs, not having a close friend/confidant, and drug use. ART adherence.90 % ranked 5th for its positive influence on mental health, and viral loa

Cellular Phenotype-Dependent and -Independent Effects of Vitamin C on the Renewal and Gene Expression of Mouse Embryonic Fibroblasts

Vitamin C has been shown to delay the cellular senescence and was considered a candidate for chemoprevention and cancer therapy. To understand the reported contrasting roles of vitamin C: growth-promoting in the primary cells and growth-inhibiting in cancer cells, primary mouse embryonic fibroblasts (MEF) and their isogenic spontaneously immortalized fibroblasts with unlimited cell division potential were used as the model pair. We used microarray gene expression profiling to show that the immortalized MEF possess human cancer gene expression fingerprints including a pattern of up-regulation of inflammatory response-related genes. Using the MEF model, we found that a physiological treatment level of vitamin C (10−5 M), but not other unrelated antioxidants, enhanced cell growth. The growth-promoting effect was associated with a pattern of enhanced expression of cell cycle- and cell division-related genes in both primary and immortalized cells. In the immortalized MEF, physiological treatment levels of vitamin C also enhanced the expression of immortalization-associated genes including a down-regulation of genes in the extracellular matrix functional category. In contrast, confocal immunofluorescence imaging of the primary MEF suggested an increase in collagen IV protein upon vitamin C treatment. Similar to the cancer cells, the growth-inhibitory effect of the redox-active form of vitamin C was preferentially observed in immortalized MEF. All effects of vitamin C required its intracellular presence since the transporter-deficient SVCT2−/− MEF did not respond to vitamin C. SVCT2−/− MEF divided and became immortalized readily indicating little dependence on vitamin C for the cell division. Immortalized SVCT2−/− MEF required higher concentration of vitamin C for the growth inhibition compared to the immortalized wildtype MEF suggesting an intracellular vitamin C toxicity. The relevance of our observation in aging and human cancer prevention was discussed

Energetic eruptions leading to a peculiar hydrogen-rich explosion of a massive star

Every supernova so far observed has been considered to be the terminal explosion of a star. Moreover, all supernovae with absorption lines in their spectra show those lines decreasing in velocity over time, as the ejecta expand and thin, revealing slower-moving material that was previously hidden. In addition, every supernova that exhibits the absorption lines of hydrogen has one main light-curve peak, or a plateau in luminosity, lasting approximately 100 days before declining1. Here we report observations of iPTF14hls, an event that has spectra identical to a hydrogen-rich core-collapse supernova, but characteristics that differ extensively from those of known supernovae. The light curve has at least five peaks and remains bright for more than 600 days; the absorption lines show little to no decrease in velocity; and the radius of the line-forming region is more than an order of magnitude bigger than the radius of the photosphere derived from the continuum emission. These characteristics are consistent with a shell of several tens of solar masses ejected by the progenitor star at supernova-level energies a few hundred days before a terminal explosion. Another possible eruption was recorded at the same position in 1954. Multiple energetic pre-supernova eruptions are expected to occur in stars of 95 to 130 solar masses, which experience the pulsational pair instability2,3,4,5. That model, however, does not account for the continued presence of hydrogen, or the energetics observed here. Another mechanism for the violent ejection of mass in massive stars may be required