Exploiting coastal altimetry to improve the surface circulation scheme over the central Mediterranean Sea

This work is the first study exploiting along track altimetry data to observe and monitor coastal ocean features over the transition area between the western and eastern Mediterranean Basins. The relative performances of both the AVISO and the X‐TRACK research regional altimetric data sets are compared using in situ observations. Both products are cross validated with tide gauge records. The altimeter‐derived geostrophic velocities are also compared with observations from a moored Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler. Results indicate the good potential of satellite altimetry to retrieve dynamic features over the area. However, X‐TRACK shows a more homogenous data coverage than AVISO, with longer time series in the 50 km coastal band. The seasonal evolution of the surface circulation is therefore analyzed by conjointly using X‐TRACK data and remotely sensed sea surface temperature observations. This combined data set clearly depicts different current regimes and bifurcations, which allows us to propose a new seasonal circulation scheme for the central Mediterranean. The analysis shows variations of the path and temporal behavior of the main circulation features: the Atlantic Tunisian Current, the Atlantic Ionian Stream, the Atlantic Libyan Current, and the Sidra Gyre. The resulting bifurcating veins of these currents are also discussed, and a new current branch is observed for the first time

Automated detection of coastal upwelling in the Western Indian Ocean: Towards an operational “Upwelling Watch” system

Coastal upwelling is an oceanographic process that brings cold, nutrient-rich waters to the ocean surface from depth. These nutrient-rich waters help drive primary productivity which forms the foundation of ecological systems and the fisheries dependent on them. Although coastal upwelling systems of the Western Indian Ocean (WIO) are seasonal (i.e., only present for part of the year) with large variability driving strong fluctuations in fish catch, they sustain food security and livelihoods for millions of people via small-scale (subsistence and artisanal) fisheries. Due to the socio-economic importance of these systems, an "Upwelling Watch" analysis is proposed, for producing updates/alerts on upwelling presence and extremes. We propose a methodology for the detection of coastal upwelling using remotely-sensed daily chlorophyll-a and Sea Surface Temperature (SST) data. An unsupervised machine learning approach, K-means clustering, is used to detect upwelling areas off the Somali coast (WIO), where the Somali upwelling – regarded as the largest in the WIO and the fifth most important upwelling system globally – takes place. This automatic detection approach successfully delineates the upwelling core and surrounds, as well as non-upwelling ocean regions. The technique is shown to be robust with accurate classification of out-of-sample data (i.e., data not used for training the detection model). Once upwelling regions have been identified, the classification of extreme upwelling events was performed using confidence intervals derived from the full remote sensing record. This work has shown promise within the Somali upwelling system with aims to expand it to the rest of the WIO upwellings. This upwelling detection and classification method can aid fisheries management and also provide broader scientific insights into the functioning of these important oceanographic features

Cold ridge formation mechanisms on the Agulhas Bank (South Africa) as revealed by satellite-tracked drifters

The formation of the cold ridge, a seasonal mid-shelf upwelling feature on the Agulhas Bank, is investigated from a combination of satellite-tracked surface drifters, in situ current and temperature data, as well as satellite sea surface temperature (SST) and chlorophyll-a (Chl-a). The observational data showed coastal upwelling along the Tsitsikamma coast to be induced by the easterly wind in austral summer, with a coexistent westward flowing coastal current. Under this wind and current regime, surface drifters moved west and onto the mid-shelf with the cold water, thereafter following the southward-curved 100 m isobath. Satellite observations in March–April 2008 showed increased south-westward advection of wind-driven upwelled water during an Agulhas Current intrusion that resulted in the formation of a classically shaped cold ridge. Also of interest was the passing of a Natal Pulse along the south-eastern shelf edge of the Agulhas Bank in July 2007. This generated a large cyclonic eddy in the Agulhas Bight with an attendant warm water plume that swept over the adjacent shelf. Two idle drifters positioned on the mid-shelf at the time, immediately west of the Natal Pulse, were rapidly advected offshore along the curved 100 m isobath, confirming the long-thought association of the cold ridge with an Agulhas Bight cyclone. A moored current meter adjacent to the Tsitsikamma coast (1.5 km offshore) showed the effect of the Natal Pulse on the nearshore. Drifter trajectories show accelerated south-westward flow on the offshore side of the cold ridge and recirculation towards the east on its shoreward side. These findings strongly support the Westward Transport Hypothesis where squid paralarvae are advected westward from the inshore breeding grounds, to the food maxima on the interior of the central Agulhas Bank, to improve their chances of survival and can therefore have important implications for the management of the South African chokka squid fishery

Earth observation and machine learning reveal the dynamics of productive upwelling regimes on the Agulhas Bank

The combined application of machine learning and satellite observations offers a new way for analysing complex ocean biological and physical processes. Here, an unsupervised machine learning approach, Self Organizing Maps (SOM), is applied to discover links between surface current variability and phytoplankton productivity during seasonal upwelling over the Agulhas Bank (South Africa), from 23 years (November-March 1997-2020) of daily satellite observations (surface current, sea surface temperature, chlorophyll-a). The SOM patterns extracted over this dynamically complex region, which is dominated by the Agulhas Current (AC), revealed 4 topologies/modes of the AC system. An AC flowing southwestward along the shelf edge is the dominant mode. An AC with a cyclonic meander near shelf is the second most frequent mode. An AC with a cyclonic meander off shelf and AC early retroflection modes are the least frequent. These AC topologies influence the circulation and the phytoplankton productivity on the shelf. Strong (weak) seasonal upwelling is seen in the AC early retroflection, the AC with a cyclonic meander near shelf modes and in part of the AC along the shelf edge mode (the AC with a cyclonic meander off shelf mode and in part the AC along the shelf edge mode). The more productive patterns are generally associated with a strong southwestward flow over the central bank caused by the AC intrusion to the east Bank or via an anticyclonic meander. The less productive situations can be related to a weaker southwest flow over the central bank, strong northeast flow on the eastern bank, and/or to a stronger northwest flow on the central bank. The SOM patterns show marked year-to-year variability. The high/low productivity events seem to be linked to the occurrence of extreme phases in climate variability modes (El Niño Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole)

Absence of the Great Whirl giant ocean vortex abates productivity in the Somali upwelling region

Somali upwelling is the fifth largest upwelling globally with high productivity, attracting tuna migratory species. A key control on the upwelling productivity is its interaction with one of the world’s largest oceanic eddies, the Great Whirl inducing a strong downwelling signal. Here, we use satellite-derived observations to determine the Great Whirl impact on the extent of the upwelling-driven phytoplankton bloom. We find that following decreases in upwelling intensity, productivity has declined by about 10% over the past two decades. The bloom extent has also been diminishing with an abrupt decrease around 2006–2007, coinciding with an abrupt increase in the downwelling effect. Absent or weak Great Whirl leads to the occurrence of smaller anticyclonic eddies with a resulting downwelling stronger than when the Great Whirl is present. We suggest that 2006–2007 abrupt changes in the bloom and downwelling extents’ regimes, are likely driven by Indian Ocean Dipole abrupt shift in 2006

Marine heatwaves and cold spells in the Northeast Atlantic: what should the UK be prepared for?

Up to now, the UK has avoided major marine heatwaves (MHWs) that cause severe damage to marine ecosystems and the blue economy. However, an unprecedented in its intensity, though short-lived, MHW occurred in UK waters in June 2023. This event sounded an alarm bell, highlighting gaps in our understanding of MHW characteristics and their potential future impacts in the UK. Here, we use a combination of remote sensing data and model output to characterise MHWs and Marine Cold Spells (MCSs) around the UK and the wider North Atlantic, and to assess the potential for concurrent biogeochemical extreme events. Results indicate that across the wider North Atlantic, the UK is not a hot spot for MHWs or MCSs but, regionally, the southern North Sea experiences the most activity. This is also the location of extreme chlorophyll-a concentrations, here termed blue waves (low chlorophyll-a) and green waves (high chlorophyll-a). However, there is not a very pronounced relationship between temperature and chlorophyll-a extremes, which may be impacted by the exact location, drivers and season of occurrence. In contrast, the southern North Sea and English Channel may experience a MHW and low near-bottom oxygen compound events year-round, which, due to the combination of thermal stress and reduced oxygen availability, may negatively impact benthic marine ecosystems. While MHWs in UK waters do not appear to be as long-lasting or intense as other well-documented events around the world, they are projected to increase. Thus, the UK has a unique opportunity to learn from other nations and so develop robust and comprehensive policies to increase preparedness and response capability for future extreme events

Retention properties of the Agulhas bank and their relevance to the chokka squid life cycle

Retention is thought to be a crucial component required to create a favourable habitat for coastal pelagic species. It is vital for the survival of ‘chokka’ squid (Loligo reynaudii), which is a fishery that supports thousands of people living in the Eastern Cape of South Africa. After chokka spawn, retention on the Agulhas Bank is crucial to prevent starvation in the early life stages. Using a high-resolution ocean model, this study quantifies retention properties of the Agulhas Bank most relevant to the chokka squid. We estimate the proportion of virtual Lagrangian particles, representing paralarvae, that are retained on the Agulhas Bank within 30 days after being released from the main chokka squid spawning sites. Over an 18-year period (1995–2013), considerable variability is found on seasonal and interannual timescales, with the greatest retention occurring for particles released further to the west. The greater losses for the easternmost release sites are due to increased interaction with the Agulhas Current. While 90–100% retention is the most common scenario, high loss (>50%) events are also apparent and are associated with different variability modes of the Agulhas Current. These variability modes include i) meanders that cause offshore flow at the northeast edge of the Bank, ii) the presence of a fast, onshore branch of the Agulhas Current rapidly advecting the particles off the Bank further west (associated with a Natal Pulse) and iii) an Agulhas Current positioned further south of the Bank leading to an offshore flow from the eastern Agulhas Bank. The third variability mode usually occurs 1–2 months after the passage of a Natal Pulse or meander. However, 1–2 weeks after the passage of a Natal Pulse, retention increases, so the timing of these events relative to particle release is crucial. This shows that the key to understanding paralarvae retention lies both in the occurrence of these dynamic features and in their timing relative to the spawning events

Spatial and temporal variability of net primary production on the Agulhas Bank, 1998–2018

Despite the importance of Agulhas Bank (AB) marine productivity in supporting South African coastal fisheries and shelf ecosystems, there are relatively few regional-scale assessments of its spatial and temporal variability, and most productivity studies have been limited in scale. Here we use satellite-derived Net Primary Production (NPP) rates calculated using the Vertically Generalized Production Model (VGPM) to examine the spatial and temporal dynamics of NPP over the 21-year satellite record (1998–2018) on the AB. In calculating VGPM NPP we used the OCCI Chlorophyll-a product, SST from Operational-Sea-Surface-Temperature-and-Sea-Ice-Analysis (OSTIA) and PAR from GlobColour level-3 mapped products as these represent the longest datasets that fit our extended study period. We examine spatial trends between the eastern and central AB, as well as three areas of the bank (around Port Alfred, the Tsitsikamma coast, and the ‘cold ridge’) that have been previously identified as contributing significantly to the overall productivity of the AB. The AB shows only a moderate degree of seasonality in NPP calculated from the VGPM, with NPP being highest in austral summer (1.7–1.8 g C m−2 d−1) and lowest in winter (0.9–1.0 g C m−2 d−1), and remains relatively high (>1 g C m−2 d−1) throughout the year, contrasting sharply with other shelf systems. Considered annually, NPP on the bank was 516 g C m−2 yr−1 (38 Mt C yr−1 when scaled to the total shelf area) which is higher than many other shelf systems though lower than the neighbouring Benguela system and is indicative of a moderately productive shelf system fuelled by perennial NPP. Comparing different sections of the AB from east to central bank, and including the three upwelling areas, highlighted that spatial differences in NPP were relatively limited; that these three upwelling areas made similar contributions to their relative proportion of the total shelf area, and that average rates of NPP are spatially similar across the bank, though notable high rates occur in some coastal upwelling areas. Interannual variability in NPP was relatively modest, varying between years by only ∼15% over the two decades assessed. Over the 21-year data set, there was a slight (∼0.26% yr−1) statistically-significant decline in calculated NPP over time for the AB as a whole, which, when examined on a pixel-by-pixel basis, indicated that most of the decline was on the central bank between 100 m and 200 m isobaths. In summer, an increase in NPP occurred on the EAB (26.5–28°E). In conclusion, the AB is a significant site of perennial moderate levels of NPP, varying little interannually and with only a slight decline in NPP over time. These factors lead to a stable environment in terms of ecosystem productivity so that the AB makes a significant contribution to the productivity of South African regional fisheries

Interannual monsoon wind variability as a key driver of East African small pelagic fisheries

Small pelagic fisheries provide food security, livelihood support and economic stability for East African coastal communities—a region of least developed countries. Using remotely- sensed and field observations together with modelling, we address the biophysical drivers of this important resource. We show that annual variations of fisheries yield parallel those of chlorophyll-a (an index of phytoplankton biomass). While enhanced phytoplankton biomass during the Northeast monsoon is triggered by wind-driven upwelling, during the Southeast monsoon, it is driven by two current induced mechanisms: coastal “dynamic uplift” upwelling; and westward advection of nutrients. This biological response to the Southeast monsoon is greater than that to the Northeast monsoon. For years unaffected by strong El-Niño/La-Niña events, the Southeast monsoon wind strength over the south tropical Indian Ocean is the main driver of year-to-year variability. This has important implications for the predictability of fisheries yield, its response to climate change, policy and resource management

Unravelling links between squid catch variations and biophysical mechanisms in South African waters

Using satellite observations, this study uncovers the biophysical drivers of the lucrative chokka squid fishery in South Africa over the last two decades (1998–2017) and addresses their potential links with low squid catches. Chokka squid fishing is crucial to the economic wellbeing of local communities. However, the squid biomass is prone to considerable fluctuations, including abrupt declines with negative socio-economic impacts. We show that the squid catch is significantly and positively correlated with satellite-derived chlorophyll-a (Chl-a, an index of phytoplankton biomass) from year to year in South African coastal waters. Two main phytoplankton blooms are observed to occur seasonally in the austral spring and autumn, peaking in October and April, respectively. From October to April, phytoplankton abundance is influenced by the occurrence of wind-driven upwelling over the South African west coast (southern Benguela) and the central Agulhas Bank (so-called Cold Ridge upwelling), while the surface currents appear more important for shelf edge processes and advection along the Cold Ridge on shorter timescales. Low squid catches are observed in 2001 and 2013 and linked to declines in Chl-a induced by weak winds and relaxed negative wind stress curl over the southwest coast in 2001, and over the southwest coast and the central Agulhas Bank in 2013. Phytoplankton phenology (bloom timing) analysis reveals absent, or shorter and delayed blooms, over the Benguela upwelling region in 2001 and both the Benguela and Cold Ridge upwelling areas in 2013. In contrast, the high catch years of 2004 and 2009, associated with elevated Chl-a, coincide with early and/or prolonged seasonal blooms. These are induced by strong winds over the Benguela upwelling and Cold Ridge areas in 2004, and by intensified negative wind stress curl over the Benguela upwelling area in 2009. These results show that the squid catch fluctuations are potentially predictable and could support policymakers seeking to improve their planning of adaptation strategies and risk mitigation