Livestock Market Integration and Price Discovery: Case of Mali

Replaced with revised version of paper 02/22/11.cointegration, structural breaks, market integration, Agricultural and Food Policy, Demand and Price Analysis, International Development, Livestock Production/Industries,

Athari za Kimofofonolojia za Lugha ya Kirundi Katika Ujifunzaji wa Kiswahili kama Lugha ya Pili kwa Wanafunzi wa Jamiilugha ya Kirundi.

Utafiti huu ulitathmini Athari za Kimofofonolojia za Lugha ya Kirundi Katika Ujifunzaji wa Kiswahili kama Lugha ya Pili kwa Wanafunzi wa Jamii lugha ya Kirundi katika baadhi ya vyuo vikuu. Malengo mahususi katika utafiti huu ni (1) Kubainisha athari za kimofofonolojia ya Kirundikatika ujifunzaji wa Kiswahili kama L2 kwa wanafunzi wa jamiilugha ya Kirundi; (2) Kutathmini viwango vya utamalaki wa aina mbalimbali za athari za Kimofofonolojia za Kirundi katika ujifunzaji wa Kiswahili kama L2 kwa wanafunzi wa jamiilugha ya Kirundi., na (3) kubainisha juhudi za walimu kubaini na kukabiliana na aina hizi za athari. Utafiti huu uliongozwa na nadharia ya Uchanganuzi Linganishi. Ili kufikia malengo yake, wanafunzi mia moja wa vyuo vikuu vitatu walihusishwa pamoja na wahadhiriwa Kiswahili wanane. Michakato ya usampulishaji iliyotumiwa ni usampulishaji usio nasibu na usampulishaji nasibu. Mbinu za kukusanyia data zilikuwa hojaji, jaribio la umilisi na ushuhudiaji. Uchanganuzi wa data ulionyesha kuwa athari za kimofofonolojia zinazoibuka katika kazi za Kiswahili za wanafunzi wa jamiilugha ya Kirundi wanaojifunza Kiswahili yalihusu uchopekaji, udondoshaji na matumizi ya fonimu mbadala. Aghalabu athari za kimofofonolojia zilizodhihirika zilisababishwa na uhawilishaji wa L1 ya mwanafunzi kwa kuhamisha baadhi ya kanuni za kiisimu za L1 hadi L2. Katika kuangazia mbinu za kutumiwa na walimu ili kuwasaidia wanafunzi wanaojifunza Kiswahili kama L2, walimu watafititiwa walibaini mbinu za hatua kwa hatua; yaani stadi ya kusikiliza, kuzungumza, kusoma na kuandika. Maneno Makuu: Kimofofonolojia, Fonimu, Uchopekaj

Essays on Dynamics of Cattle Prices in Three Developing Countries of Mali, Kenya, and Tanzania

One of the growing agricultural subsectors in developing countries is livestock. Livestock and livestock products account for a third of the agricultural gross output. However, the lack of viable livestock market information systems to increase efficiency of markets and support the decision making of traders, pastoralists, and policy makers are still an obstacle for a full development of this subsector. It is along these lines that the USAID, through the Global Livestock-Collaborative Research Support Program, supported the introduction of livestock market information systems in Kenya and Tanzania in 2003, and later in Mali in 2007. The overall objective of the dissertation is to test for cattle markets integration in three African developing countries of Mali, Kenya, and Tanzania. One way of assessing the efficiency of market and the impacts of liberalization policies is to test for market integration and price transmission. We also analyzed price leadership among the markets in each of the three case studies. Autoregressive models (vector autoregressive models and error correction model) were used to determine the level of cattle market integration. The results show a low level of cattle markets integration in Mali. The cattle markets in Mali are more-or-less independent with regard to price transmission among markets. Kenya cattle markets showed a good level of integration among the markets. Chepareria market in the Rift Valley region (west) seemed to lead other markets in price signal transmission. Tanzanian cattle markets exhibited a higher level of integration with Pugu market, in Dar es Salaam, leading other cattle markets in price signal transmission. In conclusion, the cattle markets in Tanzania and Kenya appeared to have a relatively higher level of market integration compared to the cattle markets in Mali. There is a reasonable belief that the time the livestock market information system has been in place, in each country, played a role in the market integration process. More time and better communications seem to have allowed the market actors to learn arbitrage skills and strengthen their trade relationships that ultimately led to the market integration

Spatial and Temporal Analysis of the Land Use and Land Cover Changes in Gatumba Mining Landscape, Rwanda

Mining activities are one of the main driving forces of land use and land cover changes. While opencast mining is continuously carried out, land cover change assessment is of paramount importance for sustainable land resource management and use as a tool for policymakers to understand the mininginduced changes and their response to water flow, forest, and soil in a mining landscape. In Gatumba Region of the Western part of Rwanda, mining activities are still inadequately undertaken and the surrounding environment is affected by artisanal and small scale mining practices. Soil erosion, barren waste rock dumps, and polluted rivers reflect the lack of implementation of proper environmental protection measures. This study aims to spatially and temporally analyse the land use and cover changes induced by the mining activities in Gatumba mining landscape for optimization of land use planning and management of the mined and restoring the degraded mining landscapes in Rwanda. Landsat images were used to generate the land use/cover maps for the periods of 1999, 2008 and 2015 by using maximum likelihood pixel-based classification method. The comparison of land use/land cover maps during those periods derived from toposheet and multispectral satellite imagery interpretation indicates that there is a significant increase in bare soil, built-up areas at the rate of 0.63% and 45.43% respectively. Over a period of 16 years, mining areas has increased progressively from 2.85 Km2 to 5.55 Km2representing 3.95% of the total land coverage. The expansion has taken place especially in central and southern part of Gatumba. It is also noted that substantial amount of the agriculture land and forest area vanished during the period of study which may be due to rapid population growth and the development of rural centers. The information obtained from change detection of land use/land cover helps in providing optimal solutions for land management, planning for the mining sites, monitoring of the related environmental effects and restoration of the degraded mining landscapes in Rwanda

Economic and food security effects of small-scale irrigation technologies in Northern Ghana

Small-scale irrigation (SSI) technologies can be useful not only to increase crop productivity and income but also as a viable adaptation practice to climate variability. A farm simulation model (FARMSIM) and data from selected SSI technologies piloted in northern Ghana under the ‘Feed the Future-Innovation Lab for Small Scale Irrigation’ (ILSSI) project were used to assess the economic feasibility of the SSI technologies and their potential to improve income and nutrition of smallholder farm households. Three dry season irrigated crops (onion, corchorus, amaranthus) grown under three agricultural water management regimes were analysed. Results show that adoption of the SSI technologies could increase the net farm profit by 154%–608% against the baseline depending on the ‘crop type - SSI technology’ combination. Nutrition levels also improved significantly as a result of the improvements in crop yields due to irrigation and use of complementary inputs. However, the results further reveal that the options that utilize capital-intensive SSI technologies such as solar-powered water pumps to grow high value cash crops are constrained by the high investment cost. Currently, farmers tend to choose low-cost SSI technologies such as a traditional watering-cans, which generate low economic returns. Improving access to credit or alternative financing schemes could mitigate the capital constraints and enable smallholders to gain more benefits from participating in market-oriented high-value irrigated productio

Profitability and Economic Feasibility Analysis of Small Scale Irrigation Technologies in northern Ghana

Small-scale irrigation (SSI) technologies can be a useful tool not only to increase crop productivity and income but also to mitigate against climate variability in Ghana given the recent frequent dry spells. Profitability and economic feasibility of investing in the SSI technologies are analysed using a farm simulation model (FARMSIM) and based on farm-plot level data on selected SSI technologies piloted in northern Ghana under the Innovation Lab for Small Scale Irrigation (ILSSI). The aim is to identify profitable and economically feasible sets of ‘crop type–SSI technology’ combinations that would prove viable in “real world” farm conditions. Four dry season irrigated cash crop (corchorus, onion, and amaranths) grown under four SSI technologies (pump-tank-hose, watering can, and rain/roof water harvesting and drip irrigation) were considered. Results showed that rainwater-harvesting using poly tank storage and a drip system is not economically feasible at the current yield level and market prices of irrigated cash crops in northern Ghana. SSI technology options using river water or shallow wells with motorized pumps or watering cans were profitable. The watering can is relatively more profitable than motorized pumps because of fuel and upfront investment costs in pumps. However, affordable credit schemes could mitigate the cost constraint to afford motor pumps and enable smallholders to participate in market-oriented production

Impact of Home-Based Management of malaria combined with other community-based interventions: what do we learn from Rwanda?

Introduction: This study aimed to evaluate the impact of home-based management of malaria (HBM) strategy on time to treatment and reported presumed malaria morbidity in children aged less than 5 years in Rwanda. Methods: The study was carried out in two malaria-endemic rural districts, one where HBM was applied and the other serving as control. In each district, a sample of mothers was surveyed by questionnaire before (2004) and after (2007) implementation of HBM. Results: After implementation, we observed: i) an increase (P<0.001) in the number of febrile children treated within 24 hours of symptom onset in the experimental district (53.7% in 2007 vs 5% in 2004) compared with the control district (28% vs 7.7%); ii) a decrease in the reported number of febrile children in the experimental district (28.7% vs 44.9%, P<0.01) compared with the control district (45.7% vs 56.5%, P<0.05). Conclusion: HBM contributed to decrease time to treatment and reported presumed malaria morbidity.Pan African Medical Journal 2013; 14:5

Assessing the effects of air temperature and rainfall on malaria incidence: an epidemiological study across Rwanda and Uganda

We investigate the short-term effects of air temperature, rainfall, and socioeconomic indicators on malaria incidence across Rwanda and Uganda from 2002 to 2011. Delayed and nonlinear effects of temperature and rainfall data are estimated using generalised additive mixed models with a distributed lag nonlinear specification. A time series cross-validation algorithm is implemented to select the best subset of socioeconomic predictors and to define the degree of smoothing of the weather variables. Our findings show that trends in malaria incidence agree well with variations in both temperature and rainfall in both countries, although factors other than climate seem to play an important role too. The estimated short-term effects of air temperature and precipitation are nonlinear, in agreement with previous research and the ecology of the disease. These effects are robust to the effects of temporal correlation. The effects of socioeconomic data are difficult to ascertain and require further evaluation with longer time series. Climate-informed models had lower error estimates compared to models with no climatic information in 77 and 60% of the districts in Rwanda and Uganda, respectively. Our results highlight the importance of using climatic information in the analysis of malaria surveillance data, and show potential for the development of climateinformed malaria early warning systems

Forecasting yields, prices and net returns for main cereal crops in Tanzania as probability distributions: A multivariate empirical (MVE) approach

Maize (Zea mays L.), sorghum (Sorghum bicolor L. Moench) and rice (Oryza sativa) are essential staple crops to the livelihoods of many Tanzanians. But the future productivity of these crops is highly uncertain due to many factors including overdependence on rain-fed, poor agricultural practices and climate change and variability. Despite the multiple risks and constraints, it is vital to highlight the pathways of cereal production in the country. Understanding the pathways of cereals helps to inform policymakers, so they can make better decisions to improve the viability of the sector and its potential to increase food production and income for the majority population. In this study, we employ a Monte Carlo simulation approach to develop a multivariate empirical (MVE) distribution model to simulate stochastic variables for main cereal crops in Tanzania. Eleven years (2008–2018) of yields and prices data for maize, sorghum and rice were used in the model to simulate and forecast yields and prices in Dodoma and Morogoro regions of Tanzania for a seven-year period, from 2019 to 2025. Dodoma and Morogoro regions represent semi-arid and sub-humid agro-ecological zones, respectively. The simulated yields and prices were used with total costs and total area harvested for each crop to calculate the probable net present value (NPV) for each agro-ecological zone. The results on crop yield show a slightly increasing trend for all three crops in Dodoma region. Likewise, rice yield is expected to marginally increase in Morogoro with a decreasing trend for maize and sorghum, meanwhile, the prices for the three crops all are projected to increase for the two regions. Generally, the results on economic feasibility in terms of NPV revealed a high probability of success for all the crops in Dodoma despite a higher relative risk for rice. The results in Morogoro presented a high probability of success for rice and sorghum with maize indicating the highest relative risk, and a 2.41% probability of negative NPV. This study helps to better understand the outlook of the main cereal crop sub-sectors in two agro-ecological zones of Tanzania over the next seven years. With high dependence on rain-fed agriculture, production of main cereals in Tanzania are likely to face a high degree of risk and uncertainty threatening livelihoods, incomes and foo

Impact of implementing performance-based financing on childhood malnutrition in Rwanda

Background: Malnutrition remains a serious concern in Rwanda, particularly among children under-5 years. Performance-based financing (PBF), an innovative health systems financing strategy, has been implemented at the national level since 2008. This study aimed to assess the impact of PBF and other factors associated with the prevalence of three classifications of malnutrition (stunting, wasting and underweight) in children under-5 years in Rwanda. Methods: The study is a cross-sectional study comprising of 713 children under five years old from 557 households, whose anthropometric measurements (height, weight and age) had been obtained as part of the 2008 Rwanda General Health and HIV household survey. Z-scores for height-for-age, weight-for-age, weight-for-height, and body mass index-for-age were analyzed according to the World Health Organization 2006 Child Growth Standards. Random intercept logistic regression models were used to regress each anthropometric measure (WAZ, HAZ and WHZ) against child, maternal and household characteristics. Results: Child participants ranged in age from 0 to 60 months, 20.2% of children were under 12 months and 5.1% were HIV positive. The prevalence of wasting was 8.8%; of stunting was 58.4%; and of underweight status was 20.7%. Maternal emotional and social wellbeing was protective of wasting in children under-5 years of age. Living in districts implementing PBF was protective of wasting (Adjusted Odds Ratio: 0.43; 95% confidence interval: 0.19-0.97). Living in a district with PBF was not found to be associated with either stunting or underweight status among children under-5. Conclusions: PBF may have a protective association with particular forms of malnutrition among children under-5 years in Rwanda. These findings warrant further investigation in relation to the impact of implementing innovative financing schemes on health outcomes