Advertiser Learning in Direct Advertising Markets

Direct buy advertisers procure advertising inventory at fixed rates from publishers and ad networks. Such advertisers face the complex task of choosing ads amongst myriad new publisher sites. We offer evidence that advertisers do not excel at making these choices. Instead, they try many sites before settling on a favored set, consistent with advertiser learning. We subsequently model advertiser demand for publisher inventory wherein advertisers learn about advertising efficacy across publishers' sites. Results suggest that advertisers spend considerable resources advertising on sites they eventually abandon -- in part because their prior beliefs about advertising efficacy on those sites are too optimistic. The median advertiser's expected CTR at a new site is 0.23%, five times higher than the true median CTR of 0.045%. We consider how pooling advertiser information remediates this problem. Specifically, we show that ads with similar visual elements garner similar CTRs, enabling advertisers to better predict ad performance at new sites. Counterfactual analyses indicate that gains from pooling advertiser information are substantial: over six months, we estimate a median advertiser welfare gain of \$2,756 (a 15.5% increase) and a median publisher revenue gain of \$9,618 (a 63.9% increase)

Jumping into the deep-end: results from a pilot impact evaluation of a community-based aquatic exercise program

This multi-center quasi-experimental pilot study aimed to evaluate changes in pain, joint stiffness, physical function, and quality of life over 12 weeks in adults with musculoskeletal conditions attending ‘Waves’ aquatic exercise classes. A total of 109 adults (mean age, 65.2 years; range, 24–93 years) with musculoskeletal conditions were recruited across 18 Australian community aquatic centers. The intervention is a peer-led, 45 min, weekly aquatic exercise class including aerobic, strength, flexibility, and balance exercises (n = 67). The study also included a control group of people not participating in Waves or other formal exercise (n = 42). Outcomes were measured using the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC) and EuroQoL five dimensions survey (EQ-5D) at baseline and 12 weeks. Satisfaction with Waves classes was also measured at 12 weeks. Eighty two participants (43 Waves and 39 control) completed the study protocol and were included in the analysis. High levels of satisfaction with classes were reported by Waves participants. Over 90 % of participants reported Waves classes were enjoyable and would recommend classes to others. Waves participants demonstrated improvements in WOMAC and EQ-5D scores however between-group differences did not reach statistical significance. Peer-led aquatic exercise classes appear to improve pain, joint stiffness, physical function and quality of life for people with musculoskeletal conditions. The diverse study sample is likely to have limited the power to detect significant changes in outcomes. Larger studies with an adequate follow-up period are needed to confirm effects

Sequencing three crocodilian genomes to illuminate the evolution of archosaurs and amniotes

The International Crocodilian Genomes Working Group (ICGWG) will sequence and assemble the American alligator (Alligator mississippiensis), saltwater crocodile (Crocodylus porosus) and Indian gharial (Gavialis gangeticus) genomes. The status of these projects and our planned analyses are described

Evidence-based Kernels: Fundamental Units of Behavioral Influence

This paper describes evidence-based kernels, fundamental units of behavioral influence that appear to underlie effective prevention and treatment for children, adults, and families. A kernel is a behavior–influence procedure shown through experimental analysis to affect a specific behavior and that is indivisible in the sense that removing any of its components would render it inert. Existing evidence shows that a variety of kernels can influence behavior in context, and some evidence suggests that frequent use or sufficient use of some kernels may produce longer lasting behavioral shifts. The analysis of kernels could contribute to an empirically based theory of behavioral influence, augment existing prevention or treatment efforts, facilitate the dissemination of effective prevention and treatment practices, clarify the active ingredients in existing interventions, and contribute to efficiently developing interventions that are more effective. Kernels involve one or more of the following mechanisms of behavior influence: reinforcement, altering antecedents, changing verbal relational responding, or changing physiological states directly. The paper describes 52 of these kernels, and details practical, theoretical, and research implications, including calling for a national database of kernels that influence human behavior

Evidence for Community Transmission of Community-Associated but Not Health-Care-Associated Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus Aureus Strains Linked to Social and Material Deprivation: Spatial Analysis of Cross-sectional Data

Supporting information for a paper titled "Evidence for Community Transmission of Community-Associated but Not Health-Care-Associated Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus Aureus Strains Linked to Social and Material Deprivation: Spatial Analysis of Cross-sectional Data". This includes: an MS Word document that describes the modelling approach (S1 Methods), Summary statistics for area-level variables in 513 LSOAs within catchment areas of the hospital cohort (S1 Table), data from the 2011 England and Wales census that outlines population structure of 513 LSOAs within catchment areas of the hospital cohort. (S2 Table), Individual patient-level metadata (S1 Text), and LSOA-level aggregated metadata (S2 Text