Effect of flow forecasting quality on benefits of reservoir operation - a case study for the Geheyan reservoir (China)

This paper presents a methodology to determine the effect of flow forecasting quality on the benefits of reservoir operation. The benefits are calculated in terms of the electricity generated, and the quality of the flow forecasting is defined in terms of lead time and accuracy of the forecasts. In order to determine such an effect, an optimization model for reservoir operation was developed which consists of two sub-models: a long-term (monthly) and a short-term (daily) optimization sub-model. A methodology was developed to couple these two sub-models, so that both short-term benefits (time span in the order of the flow forecasting lead time) and long-term benefits (one year) were considered and balanced. Both sub-models use Discretized Dynamic Programming (DDP) as their optimization algorithms. The Geheyan reservoir on the Qingjiang River in China was taken as case study. Observed (from the 1997 hydrological year) and forecasted flow series were used to calculate the benefits. Forecasted flow series were created by adding noises to the observed series. Different magnitudes of noise reflected different levels of forecasting accuracies. The results reveal, first of all, a threshold lead time of 33 days, beyond which further extension of the forecasting lead time will not lead to a significant increase in benefits. Secondly, for lead times shorter than 33 days, a longer lead time will generally lead to a higher benefit. Thirdly, a perfect inflow forecasting with a lead time of 4 days will realize 87% of the theoretical maximum electricity generated in one year. Fourthly, for a certain lead time, more accurate forecasting leads to higher benefits. For inflow forecasting with a fixed lead time of 4 days and different forecasting accuracies, the benefits can increase by 5 to 9% compared to the actual operation results. It is concluded that the definition of the appropriate lead time will depend mainly on the physical conditions of the basin and on the characteristics of the reservoir. The derived threshold lead time (33 days) gives a theoretical upper limit for the extension of forecasting lead time. Criteria for the appropriate forecasting accuracy for a specific feasible lead-time should be defined from the benefit-accuracy relationship, starting from setting a preferred benefit level, in terms of percentage of the theoretical maximum. Inflow forecasting with a higher accuracy does not always increase the benefits, because these also depend on the operation strategies of the reservoir.\u

On Lerch's transcendent and the Gaussian random walk

Let $X_1,X_2,...$ be independent variables, each having a normal distribution with negative mean $-\beta<0$ and variance 1. We consider the partial sums $S_n=X_1+...+X_n$, with $S_0=0$, and refer to the process $\{S_n:n\geq0\}$ as the Gaussian random walk. We present explicit expressions for the mean and variance of the maximum $M=\max\{S_n:n\geq0\}.$ These expressions are in terms of Taylor series about $\beta=0$ with coefficients that involve the Riemann zeta function. Our results extend Kingman's first-order approximation [Proc. Symp. on Congestion Theory (1965) 137--169] of the mean for $\beta\downarrow0$. We build upon the work of Chang and Peres [Ann. Probab. 25 (1997) 787--802], and use Bateman's formulas on Lerch's transcendent and Euler--Maclaurin summation as key ingredients.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/105051606000000781 in the Annals of Applied Probability (http://www.imstat.org/aap/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Finite-size scaling of directed percolation above the upper critical dimension

We consider analytically as well as numerically the finite-size scaling behavior in the stationary state near the non-equilibrium phase transition of directed percolation within the mean field regime, i.e., above the upper critical dimension. Analogous to equilibrium, usual finite-size scaling is valid below the upper critical dimension, whereas it fails above. Performing a momentum analysis of associated path integrals we derive modified finite-size scaling forms of the order parameter and its higher moments. The results are confirmed by numerical simulations of corresponding high-dimensional lattice models.Comment: 4 pages, one figur

Saturn's microwave spectrum: Implications for the atmosphere and the rings

Measurements of Saturn's disk temperature are compiled to determine the planet's microwave spectrum from 1 mm to 100 cm wavelength. The data were adjusted to conform with a common flux density scale. A model of Saturn's rings is used to remove the effects of the rings from the atmospheric component at centimeter and decimeter wavelengths. Theoretical spectra for a number of convective atmospheric models were computed and compared with the observed spectrum. Radiative-convective models with approximately solar composition and with an effective temperature of approximately 89 K are in good agreement with the observations. The agreement between the observed and theoretical spectra is a strong indication that gaseous ammonia is present in Saturn's atmosphere. A good fit to the data is obtained with an ammonia mixing ratio of approximately 5 x 10,0001. A comparison of the millimeter wavelength data with the best-fitting atmospheric spectrum indicates that the thermal component of the ring brightness temperature near 1 mm wavelength is approximately 25 k

Spinning String and Giant Graviton in Electric/Magnetic Field Deformed AdS3×S3×T4AdS_3 \times S^3 \times T^4

We apply the transformation of mixing azimuthal and internal coordinate or mixing time and internal coordinate to the 11D M-theory with a stack of M2-branes $\bot$ M2-branes, then, through the mechanism of Kaluza-Klein reduction and a series of the T duality we obtain the corresponding background of a stack of D1-branes $\bot$ D5-branes which, in the near-horizon limit, becomes the magnetic or electric Melvin field deformed $AdS_3 \times S^3 \times T^4$. We find the giant graviton solution in the deformed spacetime and see that the configuration whose angular momentum is within a finite region could has a fixed size and become more stable than the point-like graviton, in contrast to the undeformed giant graviton which only exists when its angular momentum is a specific value and could have arbitrary size. We discuss in detail the properties of how the electric/magnetic Melvin field will affect the size of the giant gravitons. We also adopt an ansatz to find the classical string solutions which are rotating in the deformed $S^3$ with an angular momentum in the rotation plane. The spinning string and giant graviton solutions we obtained show that the external magnetic/electric flux will increase the solution energy. Therefore, from the AdS/CFT point of view, the corrections of the anomalous dimensions of operators in the dual field theory will be positive. Finally, we also see that the spinning string and giant graviton in the near-horizon spacetime of Melvin field deformed D5-branes background have the similar properties as those in the deformed $AdS_3 \times S^3 \times T^4$.Comment: Latex 21 pages, slightly detail calculation