Global cotton production under climate change – Implications for yield and water consumption

Being an extensively produced natural fiber on earth, cotton is of importance for economies. Although the plant is broadly adapted to varying environments, the growth of and irrigation water demand on cotton may be challenged by future climate change. To study the impacts of climate change on cotton productivity in different regions across the world and the irrigation water requirements related to it, we use the process-based, spatially detailed biosphere and hydrology model LPJmL (Lund Potsdam Jena managed land). We find our modeled cotton yield levels in good agreement with reported values and simulated water consumption of cotton production similar to published estimates. Following the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) protocol, we employ an ensemble of five general circulation models under four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for the 2011 2099 period to simulate future cotton yields. We find that irrigated cotton production does not suffer from climate change if CO2 effects are considered, whereas rainfed production is more sensitive to varying climate conditions. Considering the overall effect of a changing climate and CO2 fertilization, cotton production on current cropland steadily increases for most of the RCPs. Starting from _ 65 million tonnes in 2010, cotton production for RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 equates to 83 and 92 million tonnes at the end of the century, respectively. Under RCP8.5, simulated global cotton production rises by more than 50% by 2099. Taking only climate change into account, projected cotton production considerably shrinks in most scenarios, by up to one-Third or 43 million tonnes under RCP8.5. The simulation of future virtual water content (VWC) of cotton grown under elevated CO2 results for all scenarios in less VWC compared to ambient CO2 conditions. Under RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, VWC is notably decreased by more than 2000m3 t1 in areas where cotton is produced under purely rainfed conditions. By 2040, the average global VWC for cotton declines in all scenarios from currently 3300 to 3000m3 t1, and reduction continues by up to 30% in 2100 under RCP8.5. While the VWC decreases by the CO2 effect, elevated temperature acts in the opposite direction. Ignoring beneficial CO2 effects, global VWC of cotton would increase for all RCPs except RCP2.6, reaching more than 5000m3 t1 by the end of the simulation period under RCP8.5. Given the economic relevance of cotton production, climate change poses an additional stress and deserves special attention. Changes in VWC and water demands for cotton production are of special importance, as cotton production is known for its intense water consumption. The implications of climate impacts on cotton production on the one hand and the impact of cotton production on water resources on the other hand illustrate the need to assess how future climate change may affect cotton production and its resource requirements. Our results should be regarded as optimistic, because of high uncertainty with respect to CO2 fertilization and the lack of implementing processes of boll abscission under heat stress. Still, the inclusion of cotton in LPJmL allows for various large-scale studies to assess impacts of climate change on hydrological factors and the implications for agricultural production and carbon sequestration. © 2021 BMJ Publishing Group. All rights reserved

Comparative genomics of dairy-associated Staphylococcus aureus from selected sub-Saharan African regions reveals milk as reservoir for human-and animal-derived strains and identifies a putative animal-related clade with presumptive novel siderophore

Staphylococcus aureus infection is considered to be a neglected tropical disease with huge impact on human and animal health alike. Dairy production in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) relies heavily on various animals such as cows, goats, and camels, depending on the region. S. aureus causes mastitis and exhibits high prevalence in raw milk. The population structure including genotypic and phenotypic traits of dairy S. aureus in relation to animal and human isolates is, however, unknown for SSA. In this work, 20 S. aureus dairy isolates from East and West Africa were selected for comparative genomics and phenotypic analysis. Comparing their population structure revealed a large diversity of different origins suggesting milk to be a reservoir for human and animal strains alike. Furthermore, a novel putative siderophore was detected in multiple strains in a distinct animal-clade with strains of global origin. This putative siderophore shares a high genetic identity with that from Streptococcus equi suggesting possible horizontal gene transfer. These findings combined with the virulence genes harbored by these dairy-derived strains such as pvl, human evasion factor scn, various enterotoxin, leucocidin and antibiotic resistance genes, stresses the need for an integrative One Health approach to tackle the problem of S. aureus infections in animals and humans in sub-Saharan Africa

Identification of Valerate as Carrying Capacity Modulator by Analyzing Lactiplantibacillus plantarum Colonization of Colonic Microbiota in vitro

Humans ingest many microorganisms, which may colonize and interact with the resident gut microbiota. However, extensive knowledge about host-independent microbe-microbe interactions is lacking. Here, we investigated such colonization process using a derivative of the model probiotic Lactiplantibacillus plantarum WCFS1 into continuously cultivated gut microbiota in the intestinal PolyFermS fermentation model inoculated with five independently immobilized human adult fecal microbiota. L. plantarum successfully colonized and organized itself spatially in the planktonic, that is, the reactor effluent, and sessile, that is, reactor biofilm, fractions of distinct human adult microbiota. The microbiota carrying capacity for L. plantarum was independent of L. plantarum introduction dose and second supplementation. Adult microbiota (n = 3) dominated by Prevotella and Ruminoccocus exhibited a higher carrying capacity than microbiota (n = 2) dominated by Bacteroides with 10$^{5}$ and 10$^{3}$ CFU/ml of L. plantarum, respectively. Cultivation of human adult microbiota over 3 months resulted in decreased carrying capacity and correlated positively with richness and evenness, suggesting enhanced resistance toward colonizers. Our analyses ultimately allowed us to identify the fermentation metabolite valerate as a modulator to increase the carrying capacity in a microbiota-independent manner. In conclusion, by uncoupling microbe-microbe interactions from host factors, we showed that L. plantarum colonizes the in vitro colonic community in a microbiota-dependent manner. We were further able to demonstrate that L. plantarum colonization levels were not susceptible to the introduction parameters dose and repeated administration but to microbiota features. Such knowledge is relevant in gaining a deeper ecological understanding of colonizer-microbiota interactions and developing robust probiotic strategies

Complete Genome Sequence of Colistin-Resistant, mcr-10-Harboring, Enterobacter cloacae Isolate AVS0889, Recovered from River Water in Switzerland

Here, we report the complete genome sequence of colistin-resistant Enterobacter cloacae sequence type 1 (ST1) isolate AVS0889, which was recovered from a river in Switzerland in 2021. The genome consists of a 4.95-Mbp chromosome and five plasmids, including a large plasmid (90.8 kb) harboring a disrupted mcr-10 gene

Complete Genome Sequence of Hafnia paralvei Isolate AVS0177, Harboring mcr−9mcr-9 on a Plasmid

Here, we report the complete genome sequence of a Hafnia paralvei strain isolated from a lake in Switzerland in 2020. The genome consists of a 4.7-Mbp chromosome, a large plasmid (213 kb) harboring mcr-9, and a small plasmid (6 kb)

Traditional milk transformation schemes in Côte d'Ivoire and their impact on the prevalence of Streptococcus bovis complex bacteria in dairy products

The Streptococcus bovis/Streptococcus equinus complex (SBSEC) and possibly Streptococcus infantarius subsp. infantarius (Sii) are associated with human and animal diseases. Sii predominate in spontaneously fermented milk products with unknown public health effects. Sii/SBSEC prevalence data from West Africa in correlation with milk transformation practices are limited. Northern Côte d'Ivoire served as study area due to its importance in milk production and consumption and to link a wider Sudano-Sahelian pastoral zone of cross-border trade. We aimed to describe the cow milk value chain and determine Sii/SBSEC prevalence with a cross-sectional study. Dairy production practices were described as non-compliant with basic hygiene standards. The system is influenced by secular sociocultural practices and environmental conditions affecting product properties. Phenotypic and molecular analyses identified SBSEC in 27/43 (62.8%) fermented and 26/67 (38.8%) unfermented milk samples. Stratified by collection stage, fermented milk at producer and vendor levels featured highest SBSEC prevalence of 71.4% and 63.6%, respectively. Sii with 62.8% and 38.8% as well as Streptococcus gallolyticus subsp. macedonicus with 7.0% and 7.5% were the predominant SBSEC species identified among fermented and unfermented milk samples, respectively. The population structure of Sii/SBSEC isolates seems to reflect evolving novel dairy-adapted, non-adapted and potentially pathogenic lineages. Northern Côte d'Ivoire was confirmed as area with high Sii presence in dairy products. The observed production practices and the high diversity of Sii/SBSEC supports in-depth investigations on Sii ecology niche, product safety and related technology in the dairy value chain potentially affecting large population groups across sub-Saharan Africa

Risk factors for the carriage of Streptococcus infantarius subspecies infantarius isolated from African fermented dairy products

Streptococcus infantarius subsp. infantarius (Sii) has been identified as predominant lactic acid bacteria in spontaneously fermented dairy products (FDPs) in sub-Saharan Africa including Côte d'Ivoire. However, Sii belongs to the Streptococcus bovis/Streptococcus equinus complex (SBSEC). Most SBSEC members are assumed to be involved as opportunistic pathogens in serious diseases in both humans and animals. A population-based cross-sectional survey, including 385 participants was conducted in Korhogo, northern Côte d'Ivoire, to identify risk factors for Sii fecal carriage, including consumption of local FDPs. A structured questionnaire was used to gather participant's socio-demographic and economic characteristics, their relation to livestock and dietary habits. In addition, fresh stool and milk samples were collected. The identification of Sii was done using a SBSEC-specific PCR assay targeting 16S rRNA and groEL genes. The overall prevalence of SBSEC and Sii carriage was 23.2% (confidence interval CI 95% = 18.9-27.5) and 12.0% (CI 95% = 8.4-15.5) for stool, respectively. Prevalence of Sii was significantly higher in consumers of artisanal butter compared with non-consumers (57.1% vs 10.1%, odds ratio OR: 11.9, 95% CI: 3.9-36.6), as well as in persons handling livestock (OR = 3.9; 95% CI = 1.6-9.3) and livestock primary products (OR = 5.7; 95% CI = 2.3-14.3). The closer contact with livestock was a risk factor for Sii fecal carriage. Sii strains were isolated from fresh and fermented milk products with a prevalence of 30.4% and 45.4%, respectively. Analysis of Sii population structure through the SBSEC multi locus sequence typing assay revealed a close relationship across human and dairy isolates, possibly linked to a Kenyan human isolate. All these outcomes underline the interest of in-depth investigations on the ecology, potential reservoirs and pathways of contamination by Sii at the human-animal-environment interface in comparison to yet to be collected data from Europe, Asia and the Americas to further elucidate the various roles of Sii