Identifying groups of people with similar sociobehavioural characteristics in Malawi to inform HIV interventions:a latent class analysis

Within many sub-Saharan African countries including Malawi, HIV prevalence varies widely between regions.This variability may be related to the distribution of population groups with specific sociobehavioural characteristics that influ-ence the transmission of HIV and the uptake of prevention. In this study, we intended to identify groups of people in Malawiwith similar risk profiles

Prediction of HIV status based on socio-behavioural characteristics in East and Southern Africa.

INTRODUCTION High yield HIV testing strategies are critical to reach epidemic control in high prevalence and low-resource settings such as East and Southern Africa. In this study, we aimed to predict the HIV status of individuals living in Angola, Burundi, Ethiopia, Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, Rwanda, Zambia and Zimbabwe with the highest precision and sensitivity for different policy targets and constraints based on a minimal set of socio-behavioural characteristics. METHODS We analysed the most recent Demographic and Health Survey from these 10 countries to predict individual's HIV status using four different algorithms (a penalized logistic regression, a generalized additive model, a support vector machine, and a gradient boosting trees). The algorithms were trained and validated on 80% of the data, and tested on the remaining 20%. We compared the predictions based on the F1 score, the harmonic mean of sensitivity and positive predictive value (PPV), and we assessed the generalization of our models by testing them against an independent left-out country. The best performing algorithm was trained on a minimal subset of variables which were identified as the most predictive, and used to 1) identify 95% of people living with HIV (PLHIV) while maximising precision and 2) identify groups of individuals by adjusting the probability threshold of being HIV positive (90% in our scenario) for achieving specific testing strategies. RESULTS Overall 55,151 males and 69,626 females were included in the analysis. The gradient boosting trees algorithm performed best in predicting HIV status with a mean F1 score of 76.8% [95% confidence interval (CI) 76.0%-77.6%] for males (vs [CI 67.8%-70.6%] for SVM) and 78.8% [CI 78.2%-79.4%] for females (vs [CI 73.4%-75.8%] for SVM). Among the ten most predictive variables for each sex, nine were identical: longitude, latitude and, altitude of place of residence, current age, age of most recent partner, total lifetime number of sexual partners, years lived in current place of residence, condom use during last intercourse and, wealth index. Only age at first sex for male (ranked 10th) and Rohrer's index for female (ranked 6th) were not similar for both sexes. Our large-scale scenario, which consisted in identifying 95% of all PLHIV, would have required testing 49.4% of males and 48.1% of females while achieving a precision of 15.4% for males and 22.7% for females. For the second scenario, only 4.6% of males and 6.0% of females would have had to be tested to find 55.7% of all males and 50.5% of all females living with HIV. CONCLUSIONS We trained a gradient boosting trees algorithm to find 95% of PLHIV with a precision twice higher than with general population testing by using only a limited number of socio-behavioural characteristics. We also successfully identified people at high risk of infection who may be offered pre-exposure prophylaxis or voluntary medical male circumcision. These findings can inform the implementation of new high-yield HIV tests and help develop very precise strategies based on low-resource settings constraints

Socio-behavioural characteristics and HIV: findings from a graphical modelling analysis of 29 sub-Saharan African countries

INTRODUCTION Socio-behavioural factors may contribute to the wide variance in HIV prevalence between and within sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. We studied the associations between socio-behavioural variables potentially related to the risk of acquiring HIV. METHODS We used Bayesian network models to study associations between socio-behavioural variables that may be related to HIV. A Bayesian network consists of nodes representing variables, and edges representing the conditional dependencies between variables. We analysed data from Demographic and Health Surveys conducted in 29 SSA countries between 2010 and 2016. We predefined and dichotomized 12 variables, including factors related to age, literacy, HIV knowledge, HIV testing, domestic violence, sexual activity and women's empowerment. We analysed data on men and women for each country separately and then summarized the results across the countries. We conducted a second analysis including also the individual HIV status in a subset of 23 countries where this information was available. We presented summary graphs showing associations that were present in at least six countries (five in the analysis with HIV status). RESULTS We analysed data from 190,273 men (range across countries 2295 to 17,359) and 420,198 women (6621 to 38,948). The two variables with the highest total number of edges in the summary graphs were literacy and rural/urban location. Literacy was negatively associated with false beliefs about AIDS and, for women, early sexual initiation, in most countries. Literacy was also positively associated with ever being tested for HIV and the belief that women have the right to ask their husband to use condoms if he has a sexually transmitted infection. Rural location was positively associated with false beliefs about HIV and the belief that beating one's wife is justified, and negatively associated with having been tested for HIV. In the analysis including HIV status, being HIV positive was associated with female-headed household, older age and rural location among women, and with no variables among men. CONCLUSIONS Literacy and urbanity were strongly associated with several factors that are important for HIV acquisition. Since literacy is one of the few variables that can be improved by interventions, this makes it a promising intervention target

gems: An R Package for Simulating from Disease Progression Models

Mathematical models of disease progression predict disease outcomes and are useful epidemiological tools for planners and evaluators of health interventions. The R package gems is a tool that simulates disease progression in patients and predicts the effect of different interventions on patient outcome. Disease progression is represented by a series of events (e.g., diagnosis, treatment and death), displayed in a directed acyclic graph. The vertices correspond to disease states and the directed edges represent events. The package gems allows simulations based on a generalized multistate model that can be described by a directed acyclic graph with continuous transition-specific hazard functions. The user can specify an arbitrary hazard function and its parameters. The model includes parameter uncertainty, does not need to be a Markov model, and may take the history of previous events into account. Applications are not limited to the medical field and extend to other areas where multistate simulation is of interest. We provide a technical explanation of the multistate models used by gems, explain the functions of gems and their arguments, and show a sample application

Risk of COVID-19 Transmission Aboard Aircraft: An Epidemiological Analysis Based on the National Health Information Platform.

OBJECTIVES This study aims to investigate the risk of COVID-19 transmission on aircraft. METHODS We obtained data on all international flights to Lanzhou, China, from June 1 to August 1, 2020, through the Gansu Province National Health Information Platform and the official website of the Gansu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Statistical analysis was then performed. RESULTS Three international flights arrived in Lanzhou. The flights had a total of 700 passengers, of whom 405 (57.9%) were male and 80 (11.4%) were children below age fourteen. Twenty-seven (3.9%) passengers were confirmed to have COVID-19. Confirmed patients were primarily male (17, 65.4%) with a median age of 27.0 years. The majority of confirmed cases were seated in the middle rows of the economy class, or near public facility areas such as restrooms and galleys. The prevalence of COVID-19 did not differ between passengers sitting on window, aisle or middle seats. Compared with passengers sitting on the same row up to two rows behind a confirmed case, passengers seated in the two rows ahead a confirmed case were at a slightly higher risk of being infected. CONCLUSIONS COVID-19 may be transmitted during a passenger flight, although there is still no direct evidence

Differences in condom access and use and associated factors between persons with and without disabilities receiving social cash transfers in Luapula province, Zambia—A cross-sectional study

Persons with disabilities are disadvantaged in accessing sexual and reproductive health services, including condoms. In this study, we investigated whether condom access and use and their associated factors differed between persons with and without disabilities. We used data from adults in households receiving the Government of Zambia social cash transfers (SCT) in four districts of Luapula province. Condom access and use was the outcome. Disability, defined by the Washington Group Short Set Questions on Disability, was the main predictor. We performed logistic regression analyses to determine the associations between condom access and use and disability. In multivariable analyses, we controlled for covariates including age, sex, marital status, poverty status, HIV testing, and receiving the SCT. The sample comprised 1,143 people aged 16–49, with a median age of 21 years (interquartile range 18–28); 57.4% (n = 656) were female, 86.5% (n = 989) accessed and used condoms, and 17.9% (n = 205) were disabled, rating themselves with a 3 or a 4 on a scale of 1 = “not limited” to 4 = “cannot at all” in performing any of the six daily functions (seeing, hearing, walking, cognition, self-care, or communicating). Nearly sixty percent(58.5% (n = 120)) of persons with disabilities were female, 79.5% (n = 163) reported being very poor, 87.8% (n = 180) reported receiving SCT, and 86.3% (n = 177) reported accessing and using condoms. Condom access and use did not differ between persons with and without disabilities (adjusted odds ratio: 1.09; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.60–1.98]). We found no differences between persons with and without disabilities in condom access and use. We established that individual-level factors such as age, sex, marital status, and knowledge of being HIV positive might play a more important role in condom access and use than disability. Condom promotion interventions should account for these factors

Active surveillance for rheumatic heart disease in endemic regions: a systematic review and meta-analysis of prevalence among children and adolescents

Background Rheumatic heart disease accounts for up to 250 000 premature deaths every year worldwide and can be regarded as a physical manifestation of poverty and social inequality. We aimed to estimate the prevalence of rheumatic heart disease in endemic countries as assessed by diff erent screening modalities and as a function of age. Methods We searched Medline, Embase, the Latin American and Caribbean System on Health Sciences Information, African Journals Online, and the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews for population-based studies published between Jan 1, 1993, and June 30, 2014, that reported on prevalence of rheumatic heart disease among children and adolescents (≥5 years to <18 years). We assessed prevalence of clinically silent and clinically manifest rheumatic heart disease in random eff ects meta-analyses according to screening modality and geographical region. We assessed the association between social inequality and rheumatic heart disease with the Gini coeffi cient. We used Poisson regression to analyse the eff ect of age on prevalence of rheumatic heart disease and estimated the incidence of rheumatic heart disease from prevalence data. Findings We included 37 populations in the systematic review and meta-analysis. The pooled prevalence of rheumatic heart disease detected by cardiac auscultation was 2·9 per 1000 people (95% CI 1·7–5·0) and by echocardiography it was 12·9 per 1000 people (8·9–18·6), with substantial heterogeneity between individual reports for both screening modalities (I²=99·0% and 94·9%, respectively). We noted an association between social inequality expressed by the Gini coeffi cient and prevalence of rheumatic heart disease (p=0·0002). The prevalence of clinically silent rheumatic heart disease (21·1 per 1000 people, 95% CI 14·1–31·4) was about seven to eight times higher than that of clinically manifest disease (2·7 per 1000 people, 1·6–4·4). Prevalence progressively increased with advancing age, from 4·7 per 1000 people (95% CI 0·0–11·2) at age 5 years to 21·0 per 1000 people (6·8–35·1) at 16 years. The estimated incidence was 1·6 per 1000 people (0·8–2·3) and remained constant across age categories (range 2·5, 95% CI 1·3–3·7 in 5-year-old children to 1·7, 0·0–5·1 in 15-year-old adolescents). We noted no sexrelated diff erences in prevalence (p=0·829). Interpretation We found a high prevalence of rheumatic heart disease in endemic countries. Although a reduction in social inequalities represents the cornerstone of community-based prevention, the importance of early detection of silent rheumatic heart disease remains to be further assessed

Retention in care of HIV-infected children from HIV test to start of antiretroviral therapy: systematic review

BACKGROUND: In adults it is well documented that there are substantial losses to the programme between HIV testing and start of antiretroviral therapy (ART). The magnitude and reasons for loss to follow-up and death between HIV diagnosis and start of ART in children are not well defined. METHODS: We searched the PubMed and EMBASE databases for studies on children followed between HIV diagnosis and start of ART in low-income settings. We examined the proportion of children with a CD4 cell count/percentage after after being diagnosed with HIV infection, the number of treatment-eligible children starting ART and predictors of loss to programme. Data were extracted in duplicate. RESULTS: Eight studies from sub-Saharan Africa and two studies from Asia with a total of 10,741 children were included. Median age ranged from 2.2 to 6.5 years. Between 78.0 and 97.0% of HIV-infected children subsequently had a CD4 cell count/percentage measured, 63.2 to 90.7% of children with an eligibility assessment met the eligibility criteria for the particular setting and time and 39.5 to 99.4% of the eligible children started ART. Three studies reported an association between low CD4 count/percentage and ART initiation while no association was reported for gender. Only two studies reported on pre-ART mortality and found rates of 13 and 6 per 100 person-years. CONCLUSION: Most children who presented for HIV care met eligibility criteria for ART. There is an urgent need for strategies to improve the access to and retention to care of HIV-infected children in resource-limited settings

Associations of Sustainable Development Goals Accelerators With Adolescents’ Well-Being According to Head-of-Household’s Disability Status – A Cross-Sectional Study From Zambia

Objectives: We examined associations between accelerators (interventions impacting ≥2 SDG targets) and SDG-aligned well-being indicators among adolescents 16–24 years old in Zambia. Methods: We surveyed adults from 1,800 randomly sampled households receiving social cash transfers. We examined associations between accelerators (social cash transfers, life-long learning, mobile phone access) and seven well-being indicators among adolescents using multivariate logistic regressions. Results: The sample comprised 1,725 adolescents, 881 (51.1%) girls. Mobile phone access was associated with no poverty (adjusted Odds Ratio [aOR] 2.08, p < 0.001), informal cash transfers (aOR 1.82, p = 0.004), and seeking mental health support (aOR 1.61, p = 0.020). Social cash transfers were associated with no disability-related health restrictions (aOR 2.56, p = 0.004) and lesser odds of seeking mental health support (aOR 0.53, p = 0.029). Life-long learning was associated with informal cash transfers (aOR 3.49, p < 0.001) and lower school enrollment (aOR 0.70, p = 0.004). Adolescents with disabled head-of-household reported worse poverty, good health but less suicidal ideation. Conclusions: Social cash transfers, life-long learning, and mobile phone access were positively associated with well-being indicators. Adolescents living with disabled head-of-household benefited less. Governments should implement policies to correct disability-related inequalities

Use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs and adverse outcomes during the COVID-19 pandemic: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Background There are concerns that the use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) may increase the risk of adverse outcomes among patients with coronavirus COVID-19. This study aimed to synthesize the evidence on associations between the use of NSAIDs and adverse outcomes. Methods A systematic search of WHO COVID-19 Database, Medline, the Cochrane Library, Web of Science, Embase, China Biology Medicine disc, China National Knowledge Infrastructure, and Wanfang Database for all articles published from January 1, 2020, to November 7, 2021, as well as a supplementary search of Google Scholar. We included all comparative studies that enrolled patients who took NSAIDs during the COVID-19 pandemic. Data extraction and quality assessment of methodology of included studies were completed by two reviewers independently. We conducted a meta-analysis on the main adverse outcomes, as well as selected subgroup analyses stratified by the type of NSAID and population (both positive for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) or not). Findings Forty comparative studies evaluating 4,867,795 adult cases were identified. Twenty-eight (70%) of the included studies enrolled patients positive to SARS-CoV-2 tests. The use of NSAIDs did not reduce mortality outcomes among people with COVID-19 (number of studies [N] = 29, odds ratio [OR] = 0.93, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.75 to 1.14, I2  = 89%). Results suggested that the use of NSAIDs was not significantly associated with higher risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection in patients with or without COVID-19 (N = 10, OR = 0.96, 95% CI: 0.86 to 1.07, I2  = 78%; N = 8, aOR = 1.01, 95% CI: 0.94 to 1.09, I2  = 26%), or an increased probability of intensive care unit (ICU) admission (N = 12, OR = 1.28, 95% CI: 0.94 to 1.75, I2  = 82% ; N = 4, aOR = 0.89, 95% CI: 0.65 to 1.22, I2  = 60%), requiring mechanical ventilation (N = 11, OR = 1.11, 95% CI: 0.79 to 1.54, I2  = 63%; N = 5, aOR = 0.80, 95% CI: 0.52 to 1.24, I2  = 66%), or administration of supplemental oxygen (N = 5, OR = 0.80, 95% CI: 0.52 to 1.24, I2  = 63%; N = 2, aOR = 1.00, 95% CI: 0.89 to 1.12, I2  = 0%). The subgroup analysis revealed that, compared with patients not using any NSAIDs, the use of ibuprofen (N = 5, OR = 1.09, 95% CI: 0.50 to 2.39; N = 4, aOR = 0.95, 95% CI: 0.78 to 1.16) and COX-2 inhibitor (N = 4, OR = 0.62, 95% CI: 0.35 to 1.11; N = 2, aOR = 0.73, 95% CI: 0.45 to 1.18) were not associated with an increased risk of death. Interpretation Data suggests that NSAIDs such as ibuprofen, aspirin and COX-2 inhibitor, can be used safely among patients positive to SARS-CoV-2. However, for some of the analyses the number of studies were limited and the quality of evidence was overall low, therefore more research is needed to corroborate these findings. Funding There was no funding source for this study