Invest to Withstand the Test of Time: Capital Planning for High-Impact Earthquakes

Can people expect buildings and infrastructure to last, keeping their occupants sheltered from the elements, free to go about their business? The professionals who design facilities—as well as the taxpayers and entrepreneurs who fund them—make this assumption, but is this a safe assumption to make? Contemplate the effect of one extreme event—a magnitude 9.0 earthquake along the Cascadia Subduction Zone of the Pacific coast—and it is easy to realize that this is not a safe assumption. Though seismic technology can be used to fortify structures against extreme events and land use plans can keep development out of harm’s way, the adoption of these measures has not kept pace with scientific understanding of the risks, and the ensuing scenarios of mega-quakes portend widespread devastation across the urban landscape. For the benefit of all involved, it may be helpful to recognize the barriers that prevent people from making investments that will withstand the test of time, because many such obstacles can be overcome with sound capital investment planning. This essay situates the problem of human vulnerability to extreme earthquakes within the emerging empirical science of behavioral economics. When science makes biases in capital investment predictable, solutions become self-evident

Push, Pull, and Spill: A Transdisciplinary Case Study in Municipal Open Government

Municipal open data raises hopes and concerns. The activities of cities produce a wide array of data, data that is vastly enriched by ubiquitous computing. Municipal data is opened as it is pushed to, pulled by, and spilled to the public through online portals, requests for public records, and releases by cities and their vendors, contractors, and partners. By opening data, cities hope to raise public trust and prompt innovation. Municipal data, however, is often about the people who live, work, and travel in the city. By opening data, cities raise concern for privacy and social justice. This article presents the results of a broad empirical exploration of municipal data release in the City of Seattle. In this research, parties affected by municipal practices expressed their hopes and concerns for open data. City personnel from eight prominent departments described the reasoning, procedures, and controversies that have accompanied their release of data. All of the existing data from the online portal for the city were joined to Municipal open data raises hopes and concerns. The activities of cities produce a wide array of data, data that is vastly enriched by ubiquitous computing. Municipal data is opened as it is pushed to, pulled by, and spilled to the public through online portals, requests for public records, and releases by cities and their vendors, contractors, and partners. By opening data, cities hope to raise public trust and prompt innovation. Municipal data, however, is often about the people who live, work, and travel in the city. By opening data, cities raise concern for privacy and social justice. Results suggest the need for more comprehensive measures to manage the risk latent in opening city data. Cities should maintain inventories of data assets, produce data management plans pertaining to the activities of departments, and develop governance structures to deal with issues as they arise—centrally and amongst the various departments—with ex ante and ex post protocols to govern the push, pull, and spill of data. In addition, cities should consider conditioned access to pushed data, conduct audits and training around public records requests, and develop standardized model contracts to protect against the spill of data by third parties

The critical fugacity for surface adsorption of self-avoiding walks on the honeycomb lattice is 1+21+\sqrt{2}

In 2010, Duminil-Copin and Smirnov proved a long-standing conjecture of Nienhuis, made in 1982, that the growth constant of self-avoiding walks on the hexagonal (a.k.a. honeycomb) lattice is $\mu=\sqrt{2+\sqrt{2}}.$ A key identity used in that proof was later generalised by Smirnov so as to apply to a general O(n) loop model with $n\in [-2,2]$ (the case $n=0$ corresponding to SAWs). We modify this model by restricting to a half-plane and introducing a surface fugacity $y$ associated with boundary sites (also called surface sites), and obtain a generalisation of Smirnov's identity. The critical value of the surface fugacity was conjectured by Batchelor and Yung in 1995 to be $y_{\rm c}=1+2/\sqrt{2-n}.$ This value plays a crucial role in our generalized identity, just as the value of growth constant did in Smirnov's identity. For the case $n=0$, corresponding to \saws\ interacting with a surface, we prove the conjectured value of the critical surface fugacity. A crucial part of the proof involves demonstrating that the generating function of self-avoiding bridges of height $T$, taken at its critical point $1/\mu$, tends to 0 as $T$ increases, as predicted from SLE theory.Comment: Major revision, references updated, 25 pages, 13 figure

Economic resilience during COVID-19: the case of food retail businesses in Seattle, Washington

The first year of COVID-19 tested the economic resilience of cities, calling into question the viability of density and the essential nature of certain types of services. This study examines built environment and socio-economic factors associated with the closure of customer-facing food businesses across urban areas of Seattle, Washington. The study covers 16 neighborhoods (44 census block groups), with two field audits of businesses included in cross-sectional studies conducted during the peak periods of the pandemic in 2020. Variables describing businesses and their built environments were selected and classified using regression tree methods, with relationships to business continuity estimated in a binomial regression model, using business type and neighborhood socio-demographic characteristics as controlled covariates. Results show that the economic impact of the pandemic was not evenly distributed across the built environment. Compared to grocery stores, the odds of a restaurant staying open during May and June were 24%, only improving 10% by the end of 2020. Density played a role in business closure, though this role differed over time. In May and June, food retail businesses were 82% less likely to remain open if located within a quarter-mile radius of the office-rich areas of the city, where pre-pandemic job density was greater than 95 per acre. In November and December, food retail businesses were 66% less likely to remain open if located in areas of residential density greater than 23.6 persons per acre. In contrast, median household income and percentage of non-Asian persons of color were positively and significantly associated with business continuity. Altogether, these findings provide more detailed and accurate profiles of food retail businesses and a more complete impression of the spatial heterogeneity of urban economic resilience during the pandemic, with implications for future urban planning and real estate development in the post-pandemic era

In vivo detection of cerebral tau pathology in long-term survivors of traumatic brain injury

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) can trigger progressive neurodegeneration, with tau pathology seen years after a single moderate-severe TBI. Identifying this type of posttraumatic pathology in vivo might help to understand the role of tau pathology in TBI pathophysiology. We used flortaucipir positron emission tomography (PET) to investigate whether tau pathology is present many years after a single TBI in humans. We examined PET data in relation to markers of neurodegeneration in the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF), structural magnetic resonance imaging measures, and cognitive performance. Cerebral flortaucipir binding was variable, with many participants with TBI showing increases in cortical and white matter regions. At the group level, flortaucipir binding was increased in the right occipital cortex in TBI when compared to healthy controls. Flortaucipir binding was associated with increased total tau, phosphorylated tau, and ubiquitin carboxyl-terminal hydrolase L1 CSF concentrations, as well as with reduced fractional anisotropy and white matter tissue density in TBI. Apolipoprotein E (APOE) ε4 genotype affected the relationship between flortaucipir binding and time since injury, CSF β amyloid 1–42 (Aβ42) concentration, white matter tissue density, and longitudinal Mini-Mental State Examination scores in TBI. The results demonstrate that tau PET is a promising approach to investigating progressive neurodegeneration associated with tauopathy after TBI

Meta-analysis of gender performance gaps in undergraduate natural science courses

To investigate patterns of gender-based performance gaps, we conducted a meta-analysis of published studies and unpublished data collected across 169 undergraduate biology and chemistry courses. While we did not detect an overall gender gap in performance, heterogeneity analyses suggested further analysis was warranted, so we investigated whether attributes of the learning environment impacted performance disparities on the basis of gender. Several factors moderated performance differences, including class size, assessment type, and pedagogy. Specifically, we found evidence that larger classes, reliance on exams, and undisrupted, traditional lecture were associated with lower grades for women. We discuss our results in the context of natural science courses and conclude by making recommendations for instructional practices and future research to promote gender equity

The Long-Baseline Neutrino Experiment: Exploring Fundamental Symmetries of the Universe

The preponderance of matter over antimatter in the early Universe, the dynamics of the supernova bursts that produced the heavy elements necessary for life and whether protons eventually decay --- these mysteries at the forefront of particle physics and astrophysics are key to understanding the early evolution of our Universe, its current state and its eventual fate. The Long-Baseline Neutrino Experiment (LBNE) represents an extensively developed plan for a world-class experiment dedicated to addressing these questions. LBNE is conceived around three central components: (1) a new, high-intensity neutrino source generated from a megawatt-class proton accelerator at Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory, (2) a near neutrino detector just downstream of the source, and (3) a massive liquid argon time-projection chamber deployed as a far detector deep underground at the Sanford Underground Research Facility. This facility, located at the site of the former Homestake Mine in Lead, South Dakota, is approximately 1,300 km from the neutrino source at Fermilab -- a distance (baseline) that delivers optimal sensitivity to neutrino charge-parity symmetry violation and mass ordering effects. This ambitious yet cost-effective design incorporates scalability and flexibility and can accommodate a variety of upgrades and contributions. With its exceptional combination of experimental configuration, technical capabilities, and potential for transformative discoveries, LBNE promises to be a vital facility for the field of particle physics worldwide, providing physicists from around the globe with opportunities to collaborate in a twenty to thirty year program of exciting science. In this document we provide a comprehensive overview of LBNE's scientific objectives, its place in the landscape of neutrino physics worldwide, the technologies it will incorporate and the capabilities it will possess.Comment: Major update of previous version. This is the reference document for LBNE science program and current status. Chapters 1, 3, and 9 provide a comprehensive overview of LBNE's scientific objectives, its place in the landscape of neutrino physics worldwide, the technologies it will incorporate and the capabilities it will possess. 288 pages, 116 figure