Subgame-Perfect Equilibria in Stochastic Timing Games

We introduce a notion of subgames for stochastic timing games and the related notion of subgame-perfect equilibrium in possibly mixed strategies. While a good notion of subgame-perfect equilibrium for continuous-time games is not available in general, we argue that our model is the appropriate version for timing games. We show that the notion coincides with the usual one for discrete-time games. Many timing games in continuous time have only equilibria in mixed strategies -- in particular preemption games, which often occur in the strategic real option literature. We provide a sound foundation for some workhorse equilibria of that literature, which has been lacking as we show. We obtain a general constructive existence result for subgame-perfect equilibria in preemption games and illustrate our findings by several explicit applications.Comment: 27 pages, 1 figur

Covering compact metric spaces greedily

A general greedy approach to construct coverings of compact metric spaces by metric balls is given and analyzed. The analysis is a continuous version of Chvatal's analysis of the greedy algorithm for the weighted set cover problem. The approach is demonstrated in an exemplary manner to construct efficient coverings of the n-dimensional sphere and n-dimensional Euclidean space to give short and transparent proofs of several best known bounds obtained from deterministic constructions in the literature on sphere coverings.Comment: (v2) 10 pages, minor revision, accepted in Acta Math. Hunga

Possible Origin of Stagnation and Variability of Earth's Biodiversity

The magnitude and variability of Earth's biodiversity have puzzled scientists ever since paleontologic fossil databases became available. We identify and study a model of interdependent species where both endogenous and exogenous impacts determine the nonstationary extinction dynamics. The framework provides an explanation for the qualitative difference of marine and continental biodiversity growth. In particular, the stagnation of marine biodiversity may result from a global transition from an imbalanced to a balanced state of the species dependency network. The predictions of our framework are in agreement with paleontologic databases.Comment: 5 pages, 6 pages supplemen

Redistribution spurs growth by using a portfolio effect on human capital

We demonstrate by mathematical analysis and systematic computer simulations that redistribution can lead to sustainable growth in a society. The human capital dynamics of each agent is described by a stochastic multiplicative process which, in the long run, leads to the destruction of individual human capital and the extinction of the individualistic society. When agents are linked by fully-redistributive taxation the situation might turn to individual growth in the long run. We consider that a government collects a proportion of income and reduces it by a fraction as costs for administration (efficiency losses). The remaining public good is equally redistributed to all agents. We derive conditions under which the destruction of human capital can be turned into sustainable growth, despite the losses from the random growth process and despite the administrative costs. Sustainable growth is induced by redistribution. This effect could be explained by a simple portfolio-effect which re-balances individual stochastic processes. The findings are verified for three different tax schemes: proportional tax, taking proportional more from the rich, and proportionally more from the poor. We discuss which of these tax schemes is optimal with respect to maximize growth under a fixed rate of administrative costs, or with respect to maximize the governmental income. This leads us to some general conclusions about governmental decisions, the relation to public good games, and the use of taxation in a risk taking society.Comment: 12 pages, plus 8 Figures, plus matlab-code to run simulation and produce figur

Phosphorus Nitride P3N5

Pure, stoichiometric, hydrogen-free, and crystalline phosphorus nitride P3N5 has been obtained for the first time by reaction of (PNCl2)3 and NH4Cl between 770 and 1050 K. The compound has been characterized by elemental analyses, 31P and 15N MAS NMR, EXAFS, IR spectroscopy, X-ray powder diffraction, and electron microscopy. In the solid a three-dimensional cross-linked network structure of corner sharing PN4 tetrahedra has been identified with 2/5 of the nitrogen atoms bonded to three P atoms and 3/5 of the nitrogen atoms bonded to two P atoms. By electron diffraction (ED) and high-resolution transmission electron microscopy (HRTEM) two distinguishable modifications α-P3N5 and β-P3N5 have been identified which differentiate only by the stacking order of identical sheets similar to the polytypes of SiC

Estimation of biochemical network parameter distributions in cell populations

Populations of heterogeneous cells play an important role in many biological systems. In this paper we consider systems where each cell can be modelled by an ordinary differential equation. To account for heterogeneity, parameter values are different among individual cells, subject to a distribution function which is part of the model specification. Experimental data for heterogeneous cell populations can be obtained from flow cytometric fluorescence microscopy. We present a heuristic approach to use such data for estimation of the parameter distribution in the population. The approach is based on generating simulation data for samples in parameter space. By convex optimisation, a suitable probability density function for these samples is computed. To evaluate the proposed approach, we consider artificial data from a simple model of the tumor necrosis factor (TNF) signalling pathway. Its main characteristic is a bimodality in the TNF response: a certain percentage of cells undergoes apoptosis upon stimulation, while the remaining part stays alive. We show how our modelling approach allows to identify the reasons that underly the differential response.Comment: 14 pages, 5 figure