Productivity Shocks and the Business Cycle: Reconciling Recent VAR Evidence

Gali (1999) used a VAR with productivity and hours worked to argue that technology shocks are negatively correlated with labor and are unimportant for the business cycle. More recently, Beaudry and Portier (2003) studied a VAR in productivity and stock prices. Remarkably, they found that the component which has a permanent impact on productivity is almost identical to that which has no immediate impact on productivity. Moreover, either of these components explains most business cycle variation. Like Gali's results, these observations are inconsistent with early RBC models, but on the other hand they contradict Gali's claim that technology shocks are unimportant for cycles. In this paper, we study trivariate VARs in productivity, hours worked, and stock prices to see how these apparently contradictory results can be reconciled. We find one VAR specification that qualitatively and quantitatively matches the findings of Gali (so that long-run technology shocks drive hours down), and a second specification that matches the main findings of Beaudry and Portier (so that long-run technology shocks increase hours, are similar to the short-run shock to stock prices, and play a major role in generating business cycles). Surprisingly, the difference between these two specifications has nothing to do with estimating in levels or in differences, or with running VARs or VECMs, or with the ordering of variables. The only difference between the two specifications lies in which productivity variable is used: labor productivity (to generate results like Gali's) or TFP (to generate results like those of Beaudry and Portier). Both the original Beaudry and Portier estimations, as well as our findings on the productivity specification, add to the evidence that Gali's findings are not robust. Apparently the cyclical role of technology shocks is only picked up when a sufficiently cyclical productivity series is used in the estimation.Technology shocks, business cycles, news shocks

Effect of particle size of Martian dust on the degradation of photovoltaic cell performance

Glass coverglass and SiO2 covered and uncovered silicon photovoltaic (PV) cells were subjected to conditions simulating a Mars dust storm, using the Martian Surface Wind Tunnel, to assess the effect of particle size on the performance of PV cells in the Martian environment. The dust used was an artificial mineral of the approximate elemental composition of Martian soil, which was sorted into four different size ranges. Samples were tested both initially clean and initially dusted. The samples were exposed to clear and dust laden winds, wind velocities varying from 23 to 116 m/s, and attack angles from 0 to 90 deg. It was found that transmittance through the coverglass approximates the power produced by a dusty PV cell. Occultation by the dust was found to dominate the performance degradation for wind velocities below 50 m/s, whereas abrasion dominates the degradation at wind velocities above 85 m/s. Occultation is most severe at 0 deg (parallel to the wind), is less pronounced from 22.5 to 67.5 deg, and is somewhat larger at 90 deg (perpendicular to the wind). Abrasion is negligible at 0 deg, and increases to a maximum at 90 deg. Occultation is more of a problem with small particles, whereas large particles (unless they are agglomerates) cause more abrasion

The chemical effects of the Martian environment on power system component materials: A theoretical approach

In the foreseeable future, an expedition may be undertaken to explore the planet Mars. Some of the power source options being considered for such a mission are photovoltaics, regenerative fuel cells and nuclear reactors. In addition to electrical power requirements, environmental conditions en route to Mars, in the planetary orbit and on the Martian surface must be simulated and studied in order to anticipate and solve potential problems. Space power systems components such as photovoltaic arrays, radiators, and solar concentrators may be vulnerable to degradation in the Martian environment. Natural characteristics of Mars which may pose a threat to surface power systems include high velocity winds, dust, ultraviolet radiation, large daily variation in temperature, reaction to components of the soil, atmosphere and atmospheric condensates as well as synergistic combinations. Most of the current knowledge of the characteristics of the Martian atmosphere and soil composition was obtained from the Viking 1 and 2 missions in 1976. A theoretical study is presented which was used to assess the effects of the Martian atmospheric conditions on the power systems components. A computer program written at NASA-Lewis for combustion research that uses a free energy minimization technique was used to calculate chemical equilibrium for assigned thermodynamic states of temperature and pressure. The power system component materials selected for this study include: silicon dioxide, silicon, carbon, copper, and titanium. Combinations of environments and materials considered include: (1) Mars atmosphere with power surface material, (2) Mars atmosphere and dust component with power surface material, and (3) Mars atmosphere and hydrogen peroxide or superoxide or superoxide with power system material. The chemical equilibrium calculations were performed at a composition ratio (oxidant to reactant) of 100. The temperature for the silicon dioxide material and silicon, which simulate photovoltaic cells, were 300 and 400 K; for carbon, copper and titanium, which simulate radiator surfaces, 300, 500, and 1000 K. All of the systems were evaluated at pressures of 700, 800, and 900 Pa, which stimulate the Martian atmosphere

Aeolian Removal of Dust Types from Photovoltaic Surfaces on Mars

Dust elevated in local or global dust storms on the Martian surface could settle on photovoltaic (PV) surfaces and seriously hamper their performance. Using a recently developed technique to apply a uniform dust layer, PV surface materials were subjected to simulated Martian winds in an attempt to determine whether natural aeolian processes on Mars would sweep off the settled dust. Three different types of dust were used. The effects of wind velocity, angle of attack, height above the Martian surface, and surface coating material were investigated. It was found that arrays mounted on an angle of attack approaching 45 deg show the most efficient clearing. Although the angular dependence is not sharp, horizontally mounted arrays required much higher wind velocities to clear off the dust. From this test it appears that the arrays may be erected quite near the ground, but previous studies have suggested that saltation effects can be expected to cause such arrays to be covered by soil if they are set up less than about a meter from the ground. Particle size effect appear to dominate over surface chemistry in these experiments, but additional tests are required to confirm this

Intrinsic noise profoundly alters the dynamics and steady state of morphogen-controlled bistable genetic switches

During tissue development, patterns of gene expression determine the spatial arrangement of cell types. In many cases, gradients of secreted signaling molecules - morphogens - guide this process. The continuous positional information provided by the gradient is converted into discrete cell types by the downstream transcriptional network that responds to the morphogen. A mechanism commonly used to implement a sharp transition between two adjacent cell fates is the genetic toggle switch, composed of cross-repressing transcriptional determinants. Previous analyses emphasize the steady state output of these mechanisms. Here, we explore the dynamics of the toggle switch and use exact numerical simulations of the kinetic reactions, the Chemical Langevin Equation, and Minimum Action Path theory to establish a framework for studying the effect of gene expression noise on patterning time and boundary position. This provides insight into the time scale, gene expression trajectories and directionality of stochastic switching events between cell states. Taking gene expression noise into account predicts that the final boundary position of a morphogen-induced toggle switch, although robust to changes in the details of the noise, is distinct from that of the deterministic system. Moreover, stochastic switching introduces differences in patterning time along the morphogen gradient that result in a patterning wave propagating away from the morphogen source. The velocity of this wave is influenced by noise; the wave sharpens and slows as it advances and may never reach steady state in a biologically relevant time. This could explain experimentally observed dynamics of pattern formation. Together the analysis reveals the importance of dynamical transients for understanding morphogen-driven transcriptional networks and indicates that gene expression noise can qualitatively alter developmental patterning

Sensible heat receiver for solar dynamic space power system

A sensible heat receiver considered in this study uses a vapor grown carbon fiber-carbon (VGCF/C) composite as the thermal storage media and was designed for a 7 kW Brayton engine. The proposed heat receiver stores the required energy to power the system during eclipse in the VGCF/C composite. The heat receiver thermal analysis was conducted through the Systems Improved Numerical Differencing Analyzer and Fluid Integrator (SINDA) software package. The sensible heat receiver compares well with other latent and advanced sensible heat receivers analyzed in other studies while avoiding the problems associated with latent heat storage salts and liquid metal heat pipes. The concept also satisfies the design requirements for a 7 kW Brayton engine system. The weight and size of the system can be optimized by changes in geometry and technology advances for this new material

Aeolian removal of dust from photovoltaic surfaces on Mars

It is well documented that Mars is totally engulfed in huge dust storms nearly each Martian year. Dust elevated in these global dust storms, or in any of the numerous local dust storms could settle on photovoltaic surfaces and seriously hamper photovoltaic power system performance. Using a recently developed technique to uniformly dust simulated photovoltaic surfaces, samples were subjected to Martian-like winds in an attempt to determine whether natural aeolian processes on Mars would sweep off the settled dust. The effects of wind velocity, angle of attack, height off the Martian surface, and surface coating material were investigated. Principles which can help to guide the design of photovoltaic arrays bound for the Martian surface were uncovered. Most importantly, arrays mounted with an angle of attack approaching 45 deg show the most efficient clearing. Although the angular dependence is not sharp, horizontally mounted arrays required significantly higher wind velocities to clear off the dust. From the perspective of dust-clearing it appears that the arrays may be erected quite near the ground, but previous studies have suggested that saltation effects can be expected to cause such arrays to be covered by sand if they are set up less than about a meter from the ground. Providing that the surface chemistry of Martian dusts is comparable to our test dust, the materials used for protective coating may be optimized for other considerations such as transparency, and chemical or abrasion resistance. The static threshold velocity is low enough that there are regions on Mars which experience winds strong enough to clear off a photovoltaic array if it is properly oriented. Turbulence fences proved to be an ineffective strategy to keep dust cleared from the photovoltaic surfaces

Topological Properties of the QCD Vacuum at T=0 and T ~ T_c

We study on the lattice the topology of SU(2) and SU(3) Yang-Mills theories at zero temperature and of QCD at temperatures around the phase transition. To smooth out dislocations and the UV noise we cool the configurations with an action which has scale invariant instanton solutions for instanton size above about 2.3 lattice spacings. The corresponding "improved" topological charge stabilizes at an integer value after few cooling sweeps. At zero temperature the susceptibility calculated from this charge (about (195MeV)^4 for SU(2) and (185 MeV)^4 for SU(3)) agrees very well with the phenomenological expectation. At the minimal amount of cooling necessary to resolve the structure in terms of instantons and anti-instantons we observe a dense ensemble where the total number of peaks is by a factor 5-10 larger than the net charge. The average size observed for these peaks at zero temperature is about 0.4-0.45 fm for SU(2) and 0.5-0.6 fm for SU(3). The size distribution changes very little with further cooling, although in this process up to 90% of the peaks disappear by pair annihilation. For QCD we observe below T_c a reduction of the topological susceptibility as an effect of the dynamical fermions. Nevertheless also here the instantons form a dense ensemble with general characteristics similar to those of the quenched theory. A further drop in the susceptibility above T_c is also in rough agreement with what has been observed for pure SU(3). We see no clear signal for dominant formation of instanton - anti-instanton molecules.Comment: Latex, 7 pages, 4 figures (one colour). Contribution to the 31st International Symposium Ahrenshoop on the Theory of Elementary Particles, Buckow, September 2-6, 199

Novel signaling pathways in pulmonary arterial hypertension (2015 Grover Conference Series)

The proliferative endothelial and smooth muscle cell phenotype, inflammation, and pulmonary vascular remodeling are prominent features of pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH). Mutations in bone morphogenetic protein type 2 receptor (BMPR2) have been identified as the most common genetic cause of PAH and females with BMPR2 mutations are 2.5 times as likely to develop heritable forms of PAH than males. Higher levels of estrogen have also been observed in males with PAH, implicating sex hormones in PAH pathogenesis. Recently, the estrogen metabolite 16α-OHE1 (hydroxyestrone) was implicated in the regulation of miR29, a microRNA involved in modulating energy metabolism. In females, decreased miR96 enhances serotonin’s effect by upregulating the 5-hydroxytryptamine 1B (5HT1B) receptor. Because PAH is characterized as a quasi-malignant disease, likely due to BMPR2 loss of function, altered signaling pathways that sustain this cancer-like phenotype are being explored. Extracellular signal–regulated kinases 1 and 2 and p38 mitogen-activated protein kinases (MAPKs) play a critical role in proliferation and cell motility, and dysregulated MAPK signaling is observed in various experimental models of PAH. Wnt signaling pathways preserve pulmonary vascular homeostasis, and dysregulation of this pathway could contribute to limited vascular regeneration in response to injury. In this review, we take a closer look at sex, sex hormones, and the interplay between sex hormones and microRNA regulation. We also focus on MAPK and Wnt signaling pathways in the emergence of a proproliferative, antiapoptotic endothelial phenotype, which then orchestrates an angioproliferative process of vascular remodeling, with the hope of developing novel therapies that could reverse the phenotype