The Political Economy of Unsustainable Fiscal Deficits

This paper uses an intertemporal model of public finances to show that political instability can cause taxes to be tilted to the future, resulting in a fiscal deficit that is suboptimal and only weakly sustainable (in the sense of Quintos). This occurs because political instability gives the government an incentive to implement a myopic fiscal policy in order to increase its chances of remaining in office. The government achieves this by delaying taxes (or advancing spending) in order to buy political support, which in turn causes an upward trend in the deficit process and a financial crisis. Using annual data for Chile for the 1833-1999 period, we present statistical test results that support the model.Fiscal policy, political instability, weak and strong sustainability, cointegration with change in regime

Statistical Complexity of Simple 1D Spin Systems

We present exact results for two complementary measures of spatial structure generated by 1D spin systems with finite-range interactions. The first, excess entropy, measures the apparent spatial memory stored in configurations. The second, statistical complexity, measures the amount of memory needed to optimally predict the chain of spin values. These statistics capture distinct properties and are different from existing thermodynamic quantities.Comment: 4 pages with 2 eps Figures. Uses RevTeX macros. Also available at http://www.santafe.edu/projects/CompMech/papers/CompMechCommun.htm

Prediction and Generation of Binary Markov Processes: Can a Finite-State Fox Catch a Markov Mouse?

Understanding the generative mechanism of a natural system is a vital component of the scientific method. Here, we investigate one of the fundamental steps toward this goal by presenting the minimal generator of an arbitrary binary Markov process. This is a class of processes whose predictive model is well known. Surprisingly, the generative model requires three distinct topologies for different regions of parameter space. We show that a previously proposed generator for a particular set of binary Markov processes is, in fact, not minimal. Our results shed the first quantitative light on the relative (minimal) costs of prediction and generation. We find, for instance, that the difference between prediction and generation is maximized when the process is approximately independently, identically distributed.Comment: 12 pages, 12 figures; http://csc.ucdavis.edu/~cmg/compmech/pubs/gmc.ht

Synchronization and Control in Intrinsic and Designed Computation: An Information-Theoretic Analysis of Competing Models of Stochastic Computation

We adapt tools from information theory to analyze how an observer comes to synchronize with the hidden states of a finitary, stationary stochastic process. We show that synchronization is determined by both the process's internal organization and by an observer's model of it. We analyze these components using the convergence of state-block and block-state entropies, comparing them to the previously known convergence properties of the Shannon block entropy. Along the way, we introduce a hierarchy of information quantifiers as derivatives and integrals of these entropies, which parallels a similar hierarchy introduced for block entropy. We also draw out the duality between synchronization properties and a process's controllability. The tools lead to a new classification of a process's alternative representations in terms of minimality, synchronizability, and unifilarity.Comment: 25 pages, 13 figures, 1 tabl

Quantum Mutual Information Capacity for High Dimensional Entangled States

High dimensional Hilbert spaces used for quantum communication channels offer the possibility of large data transmission capabilities. We propose a method of characterizing the channel capacity of an entangled photonic state in high dimensional position and momentum bases. We use this method to measure the channel capacity of a parametric downconversion state, achieving a channel capacity over 7 bits/photon in either the position or momentum basis, by measuring in up to 576 dimensions per detector. The channel violated an entropic separability bound, suggesting the performance cannot be replicated classically.Comment: 5 pages, 2 figure

Many Roads to Synchrony: Natural Time Scales and Their Algorithms

We consider two important time scales---the Markov and cryptic orders---that monitor how an observer synchronizes to a finitary stochastic process. We show how to compute these orders exactly and that they are most efficiently calculated from the epsilon-machine, a process's minimal unifilar model. Surprisingly, though the Markov order is a basic concept from stochastic process theory, it is not a probabilistic property of a process. Rather, it is a topological property and, moreover, it is not computable from any finite-state model other than the epsilon-machine. Via an exhaustive survey, we close by demonstrating that infinite Markov and infinite cryptic orders are a dominant feature in the space of finite-memory processes. We draw out the roles played in statistical mechanical spin systems by these two complementary length scales.Comment: 17 pages, 16 figures: http://cse.ucdavis.edu/~cmg/compmech/pubs/kro.htm. Santa Fe Institute Working Paper 10-11-02

Reductions of Hidden Information Sources

In all but special circumstances, measurements of time-dependent processes reflect internal structures and correlations only indirectly. Building predictive models of such hidden information sources requires discovering, in some way, the internal states and mechanisms. Unfortunately, there are often many possible models that are observationally equivalent. Here we show that the situation is not as arbitrary as one would think. We show that generators of hidden stochastic processes can be reduced to a minimal form and compare this reduced representation to that provided by computational mechanics--the epsilon-machine. On the way to developing deeper, measure-theoretic foundations for the latter, we introduce a new two-step reduction process. The first step (internal-event reduction) produces the smallest observationally equivalent sigma-algebra and the second (internal-state reduction) removes sigma-algebra components that are redundant for optimal prediction. For several classes of stochastic dynamical systems these reductions produce representations that are equivalent to epsilon-machines.Comment: 12 pages, 4 figures; 30 citations; Updates at http://www.santafe.edu/~cm

Intrinsic Quantum Computation

We introduce ways to measure information storage in quantum systems, using a recently introduced computation-theoretic model that accounts for measurement effects. The first, the quantum excess entropy, quantifies the shared information between a quantum process's past and its future. The second, the quantum transient information, determines the difficulty with which an observer comes to know the internal state of a quantum process through measurements. We contrast these with von Neumann entropy and quantum entropy rate and provide a closed-form expression for the latter for the class of deterministic quantum processes.Comment: 5 pages, 1 figure, 1 table; updated with corrections; http://cse.ucdavis.edu/~cmg/compmech/pubs/iqc.ht

Information Symmetries in Irreversible Processes

We study dynamical reversibility in stationary stochastic processes from an information theoretic perspective. Extending earlier work on the reversibility of Markov chains, we focus on finitary processes with arbitrarily long conditional correlations. In particular, we examine stationary processes represented or generated by edge-emitting, finite-state hidden Markov models. Surprisingly, we find pervasive temporal asymmetries in the statistics of such stationary processes with the consequence that the computational resources necessary to generate a process in the forward and reverse temporal directions are generally not the same. In fact, an exhaustive survey indicates that most stationary processes are irreversible. We study the ensuing relations between model topology in different representations, the process's statistical properties, and its reversibility in detail. A process's temporal asymmetry is efficiently captured using two canonical unifilar representations of the generating model, the forward-time and reverse-time epsilon-machines. We analyze example irreversible processes whose epsilon-machine presentations change size under time reversal, including one which has a finite number of recurrent causal states in one direction, but an infinite number in the opposite. From the forward-time and reverse-time epsilon-machines, we are able to construct a symmetrized, but nonunifilar, generator of a process---the bidirectional machine. Using the bidirectional machine, we show how to directly calculate a process's fundamental information properties, many of which are otherwise only poorly approximated via process samples. The tools we introduce and the insights we offer provide a better understanding of the many facets of reversibility and irreversibility in stochastic processes.Comment: 32 pages, 17 figures, 2 tables; http://csc.ucdavis.edu/~cmg/compmech/pubs/pratisp2.ht

Exact Synchronization for Finite-State Sources

We analyze how an observer synchronizes to the internal state of a finite-state information source, using the epsilon-machine causal representation. Here, we treat the case of exact synchronization, when it is possible for the observer to synchronize completely after a finite number of observations. The more difficult case of strictly asymptotic synchronization is treated in a sequel. In both cases, we find that an observer, on average, will synchronize to the source state exponentially fast and that, as a result, the average accuracy in an observer's predictions of the source output approaches its optimal level exponentially fast as well. Additionally, we show here how to analytically calculate the synchronization rate for exact epsilon-machines and provide an efficient polynomial-time algorithm to test epsilon-machines for exactness.Comment: 9 pages, 6 figures; now includes analytical calculation of the synchronization rate; updates and corrections adde