Changing Minds: The Work of Mediators and Empirical Studies of Persuasion

The use of mediation has grown exponentially in recent years in courts, agencies, and community settings. Yet the field of mediation still operates to a considerable extent on folklore and opinion, rather than reliable knowledge. Mediator attempts at persuasion are pervasive in a wide variety of mediation contexts, yet “persuasion” is, for some, a pejorative word and a contested norm in the field. Perhaps as a result, there has been little, if any, evidence-based writing about what kinds of persuasive appeals might be effective in mediation, how they might operate, and how they might be experienced by disputants. In an effort to begin to fill that void, this article examines empirical research findings on persuasion from such diverse fields as advertising, public health, communications, politics and race relations. It focuses on studies of both indirect or behavioral approaches to persuasion (role reversal, apology, group brainstorming) and different types of direct persuasive appeals (questions vs. statements, more vs. less explicit statements, use of “negative” emotions such as fear and guilt, and sequential vs. straightforward requests for concessions). As almost none of the empirical work on persuasion has involved dispute resolution, the article raises questions about how these social science findings might apply to the work of mediators. Some of the research findings described in this article are unsurprising, while others may challenge common assumptions. Where the research appears at odds with conventional mediation wisdom, the authors discuss its potential implications for ongoing philosophical and skills-based debates in the field. Of particular note, the literature canvassed in this article may cast new light on old debates about facilitative versus evaluative mediation, and the importance of mediators having substantive, as well as process, expertise

Improving Lawyers’ Judgment: Is Mediation Training De-Biasing?

When people are placed in a partisan role or otherwise have an objective they seek to accomplish, they are prone to pervasive cognitive and motivational biases. These judgmental distortions can affect what people believe and wish to find out, the predictions they make, the strategic decisions they employ, and what they think is fair. A classic example is confirmation bias, which can cause its victims to seek and interpret information in ways that are consistent with their pre-existing views or the goals they aim to achieve. Studies consistently show that experts as well as laypeople are prone to such biases, and that they are highly resistant to change, in large part because people are generally unaware that they are operating. When they affect lawyers, egocentric, partisan and role biases can hinder the ability to provide objective advice to clients, lead to overly optimistic forecasts about the probability of future events, and promote “we-they” thinking that can exacerbate and prolong conflicts, imposing substantial costs on both clients and society. There is reason to believe that by placing people in a mediative stance—one in which people impartially try to help disputants resolve a conflict—they can develop habits of objectivity crucial to much of what lawyers are called upon to do. That this is so is supported by social science research on two specific strategies for de-biasing judgment—considering alternative scenarios and taking another’s perspective—both core mediator mindsets. Research also shows that active engagement in such de-biasing activity is more effective in achieving objectivity than is mere instruction about the existence of cognitive biases. The authors consider the implications of this research for law school clinical programming and legal education in general

Physical State of Molecular Gas in High Galactic Latitude Translucent Clouds

The rotational transitions of carbon monoxide (CO) are the primary means of investigating the density and velocity structure of the molecular interstellar medium. Here we study the lowest four rotational transitions of CO towards high-latitude translucent molecular clouds (HLCs). We report new observations of the J = (4-3), (2-1), and (1-0) transitions of CO towards eight high-latitude clouds. The new observations are combined with data from the literature to show that the emission from all observed CO transitions is linearly correlated. This implies that the excitation conditions which lead to emission in these transitions are uniform throughout the clouds. Observed 13CO/12CO (1-0) integrated intensity ratios are generally much greater than the expected abundance ratio of the two species, indicating that the regions which emit 12CO (1-0) radiation are optically thick. We develop a statistical method to compare the observed line ratios with models of CO excitation and radiative transfer. This enables us to determine the most likely portion of the physical parameter space which is compatible with the observations. The model enables us to rule out CO gas temperatures greater than 30K since the most likely high-temperature configurations are 1 pc-sized structures aligned along the line of sight. The most probable solution is a high density and low temperature (HDLT) solution. The CO cell size is approximately 0.01 pc (2000 AU). These cells are thus tiny fragments within the 100 times larger CO-emitting extent of a typical high-latitude cloud. We discuss the physical implications of HDLT cells, and we suggest ways to test for their existence.Comment: 19 pages, 13 figures, 2 tables, emulateapj To be published in The Astrophysical Journa

Local variations in spatial synchrony of influenza epidemics

Background: Understanding the mechanism of influenza spread across multiple geographic scales is not complete. While the mechanism of dissemination across regions and states of the United States has been described, understanding the determinants of dissemination between counties has not been elucidated. The paucity of high resolution spatial-temporal influenza incidence data to evaluate disease structure is often not available. Methodology and Findings: We report on the underlying relationship between the spread of influenza and human movement between counties of one state. Significant synchrony in the timing of epidemics exists across the entire state and decay with distance (regional correlation = 62%). Synchrony as a function of population size display evidence of hierarchical spread with more synchronized epidemics occurring among the most populated counties. A gravity model describing movement between two populations is a stronger predictor of influenza spread than adult movement to and from workplaces suggesting that non-routine and leisure travel drive local epidemics. Conclusions: These findings highlight the complex nature of influenza spread across multiple geographic scales. © 2012 Stark et al

A Bayesian Evidence Synthesis Approach to Estimate Disease Prevalence in Hard-To-Reach Populations: Hepatitis C in New York City

Existing methods to estimate the prevalence of chronic hepatitis C (HCV) in New York City (NYC) are limited in scope and fail to assess hard-to-reach subpopulations with highest risk such as injecting drug users (IDUs). To address these limitations, we employ a Bayesian multi-parameter evidence synthesis model to systematically combine multiple sources of data, account for bias in certain data sources, and provide unbiased HCV prevalence estimates with associated uncertainty. Our approach improves on previous estimates by explicitly accounting for injecting drug use and including data from high-risk subpopulations such as the incarcerated, and is more inclusive, utilizing ten NYC data sources. In addition, we derive two new equations to allow age at first injecting drug use data for former and current IDUs to be incorporated into the Bayesian evidence synthesis, a first for this type of model. Our estimated overall HCV prevalence as of 2012 among NYC adults aged 20-59 years is 2.78% (95% CI 2.61-2.94%), which represents between 124,900 and 140,000 chronic HCV cases. These estimates suggest that HCV prevalence in NYC is higher than previously indicated from household surveys (2.2%) and the surveillance system (2.37%), and that HCV transmission is increasing among young injecting adults in NYC. An ancillary benefit from our results is an estimate of current IDUs aged 20-59 in NYC: 0.58% or 27,600 individuals

Nonfatal Strangulation in a Sample of Domestically Violent Stalkers: The Importance of Recognizing Coercively Controlling Behaviors

© 2019 International Association for Correctional and Forensic Psychology. Strangulation is different to other types of physical violence as it often leaves no visible injuries and is frequently motivated by coercive control. Few studies have explored nonfatal strangulation and coercive control, and no studies have explored these factors within a sample of stalkers. Given that stalking perpetrators exhibit many of the coercively controlling behaviors related to nonfatal strangulation, the current study explored nonfatal strangulation and other coercively controlling behaviors in a stalking sample. A police dataset of 9,884 cases of domestic violence that involved stalking was analyzed. Results revealed that coercive control and related behaviors of excessive jealousy, victim isolation, victim fear, and victim’s belief that the perpetrator will kill them were associated with higher likelihood of having experienced nonfatal strangulation. These results may help first responders to identify victims at risk of nonfatal strangulation and suggest a need for nonfatal strangulation to be a criminal offense