Towards a knowledge-based approach for effective decision making in railway safety

Purpose – This paper aims to contribute towards understanding how safety knowledge can be elicited from railway experts for the purposes of supporting effective decision-making. Design/methodology/approach – A consortium of safety experts from across the British railway industry is formed. Collaborative modelling of the knowledge domain is used as an approach to the elicitation of safety knowledge from experts. From this, a series of knowledge models is derived to inform decision-making. This is achieved by using Bayesian networks as a knowledge modelling scheme, underpinning a Safety Prognosis tool to serve meaningful prognostics information and visualise such information to predict safety violations. Findings – Collaborative modelling of safety-critical knowledge is a valid approach to knowledge elicitation and its sharing across the railway industry. This approach overcomes some of the key limitations of existing approaches to knowledge elicitation. Such models become an effective tool for prediction of safety cases by using railway data. This is demonstrated using passenger–train interaction safety data. Practical implications – This study contributes to practice in two main directions: by documenting an effective approach to knowledge elicitation and knowledge sharing, while also helping the transport industry to understand safety. Social implications – By supporting the railway industry in their efforts to understand safety, this research has the potential to benefit railway passengers, staff and communities in general, which is a priority for the transport sector. Originality/value – This research applies a knowledge elicitation approach to understanding safety based on collaborative modelling, which is a novel approach in the context of transport. </jats:sec

Health Risk Management which are effective on Human Health in High-rise Building construction projects with Fuzzy Approach

Introduction: Due to the increasing population and the need for setting in cities, we witness an increase in high-rise building in Iran. Moreover, because of the ambiguity and complexity, they have various risks potential. Health problems are among this risks for the residents. These risks have short term or long term effects,which can cause illness or even death. .Material and Method: In the present study, health risks in high-rise buildings are identified, assessed and ranked. Health issue are identified by conducting interview with experts in high-rise building an using specific health and safety related checklists. Due to ambiguous nature of risks and existence of uncertainly, fuzzy logic technique with trapezoidal distribution was used for quantification. Finally, after risk evaluation and calculation of critical degree of each risk, the risks were ranked. .Result: Risk factors obtained over 0.5 for most of the risks that indicate the importance of Health in high-rise projects during construction phase. The results also showed that the health risks should be assessed before the start of the project in order to reduce or eliminate their impacts. .Conclusion: Safety risks in High-rise Building projects is very important. These risks have many impacts directly and indirectly on the time, quality and costs of projects. Therefore, evaluating and controlling each health risk in the design and implementation phases are essential. Most of the risks factors identified in this study, can be prevented by using personal protective equipment. The role of the training people involved in this projects are essential to use personal protective equipment

Landslide susceptibility mapping by combining the three methods Fuzzy Logic, Frequency Ratio and Analytical Hierarchy Process in Dozain basin

Landslides are among the most important natural hazards that lead to modification of the environment. Therefore, studying of this phenomenon is so important in many areas. Because of the climate conditions, geologic, and geomorphologic characteristics of the region, the purpose of this study was landslide hazard assessment using Fuzzy Logic, frequency ratio and Analytical Hierarchy Process method in Dozein basin, Iran. At first, landslides occurred in Dozein basin were identified using aerial photos and field studies. The influenced landslide parameters that were used in this study including slope, aspect, elevation, lithology, precipitation, land cover, distance from fault, distance from road and distance from river were obtained from different sources and maps. Using these factors and the identified landslide, the fuzzy membership values were calculated by frequency ratio. Then to account for the importance of each of the factors in the landslide susceptibility, weights of each factor were determined based on questionnaire and AHP method. Finally, fuzzy map of each factor was multiplied to its weight that obtained using AHP method. At the end, for computing prediction accuracy, the produced map was verified by comparing to existing landslide locations. These results indicate that the combining the three methods Fuzzy Logic, Frequency Ratio and Analytical Hierarchy Process method are relatively good estimators of landslide susceptibility in the study area. According to landslide susceptibility map about 51% of the occurred landslide fall into the high and very high susceptibility zones of the landslide susceptibility map, but approximately 26 % of them indeed located in the low and very low susceptibility zones

HSE risks assessment in urban high-rise construction using Fuzzy Approach

Introduction: High-rise building projects are increasing due to the population growth, urban development, and migration of people to the major cities. High-rise buildings have special importance in terms of HSE risks rather than other projects since these projects are located in the cities and in the direct contact with people. However, in most incidents and events, organizations do not have enough insight into the true cost. Therefore, identification and assessment of management of HSE risks is essential. .Material and Methods: In this research, HSE risks in high-rise buildings that have harmful effect on human health and environment were identified, assessed and ranked. The Risks were identified and assessed through checklist and interview with experts. Considering the uncertainty and the ambiguous nature of the risks, the combination of fuzzy numbers and Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) method were employed for quantitative analysis. Finally, the estimated risks were ranked for control. .Results: Using AHP Method, the weight of health, safety, and environment were obtained 0.346, 0.3, and 0.354,respectively, which shows the higher importance of environmental and health risks in construction projects comparing to safety risks. . Conclusion: Findings in this research indicated that HSE risks are very critical and they should be controlled before start of the project. Moreover, many of HSE risk are due to lack of appropriate HSE culture in the organization and projects that can be reduced by culture-building practices

Determining Effective Environmental Factors in the Distribution of Endangered Endemic Medicinal Plant Species Using the BMLR Model: The Example of Wild Celery (<i>Kelussia odoratissima</i> Mozaff., Apiaceae) in Zagros (Iran)

Kelussia odoratissima Mozaff. is a medicinal species native to Iran. The goal of this research was to determine the environmental factors important for the distribution of K. doratissima in Iran using BMLR modeling. Six random transects were established throughout the species’ habitat, and 220 quadrats with an area of 4 m2 were plotted. The canopy cover percentages of K. doratissima were estimated in each quadrat. Topographic factors, including elevation, slope, and aspect maps, were generated by creating DEM images. Land use, land evaluation, evaporation, temperature, and precipitation maps of the area were created accordingly. The data collected from the experiments were analyzed using the Minitab and R statistical packages. To determine the effect of the studied factors in the distribution of K. doratissima, we ran a set of backward multiple linear regressions. The results showed that the effects of evaporation, elevation, and slope were significant in the species’ distribution, with elevation having a positive effect and evaporation and slope showing negative effects. Further, elevation had the highest effect on distribution (greatest absolute value of beta at 9.660). The next most significant factors in the plant’s distribution were evaporation (beta = 8.282) and slope (beta = 0.807), respectively

Do Conocarpus erectus airborne pollen grains exacerbate autumnal thunderstorm asthma attacks in Ahvaz, Iran?

A disastrous outbreak of thunderstorm-induced asthma attacks posed a major public health threat in Ahvaz, Iran in autumn of 2013 (&gt;15,000 referrals to hospital emergency rooms and pulmonary clinics). City officials claimed that promoting factors included acid rain, particulate matter, ozone, and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon compounds (PAHS) could lead to this phenomenon. After these potential causes were rejected by careful research, the next possible cause that this study addresses is a potential link of the asthma attacks to airborne pollen grains and fungal spores. In order to sample these parameters, a Hirst-type volumetric spore sampler was used, which was installed on the rooftop of the sampling site. Sampling was done during two six-month periods to characterize the regional bioaerosol. The first period included the autumn (September 22 to December 20 of 2016) and winter seasons (December 21 of 2016 to March 19 of 2017), while the second period included the following autumn (September 23 to December 21 of 2017) and winter seasons (December 22 of 2017 to March 20 of 2018). In both studied periods, airborne weed pollen grains, especially Amaranthaceae sp., were by far the greatest contributor to total airborne pollen grain concentrations (50.45, 3757 pollen grains/m3 and 52.12, 2392 pollen grains/m3, respectively). Among fungal spores, Cladosporium had the highest concentrations (75.29, 258677 spores/m3 and 80.33, 247693 spores/m3, respectively). Findings also showed that concentrations of airborne pollen grains were higher in autumn seasons (6361 and 4167 pollen grains/m3, respectively) in comparison with winter seasons (1085 and 423 pollen grains/m3, respectively), while the concentrations of fungal spores were enhanced in winter seasons (189216 and 160962 spores/m3, respectively) versus autumn seasons (154377 and 147377 spores/m3, respectively). Fungal spores exhibited a uniform distribution during the entire study period, but airborne pollen grains were significantly higher in autumn seasons. The numbers of referrals associated with thunderstorm asthma attacks decreased drastically after implementing Conocarpus erectus tree pruning activities. We concluded that the autumnal thunderstorm asthma attacks in Ahvaz might be triggered by a combination of bio-allergens (fungal spores and airborne pollen grains such as from Conocarpus erectus) and high levels of air pollutants from industrial activity. The results of this work suggest controlling bio-allergen levels by preventive measures such as tree pruning, weed removal, and emasculating urban green infrastructures before the flowering season. © 2019 Elsevier Lt