Thermally induced pore water pressure of reconstituted London clay

Different forms of thermo-active structures have been proposed as a way of making use of the ground temperature to achieve renewable low-carbon heating and cooling in civil engineering construction. Such structures comprise piles, retaining walls or tunnel linings, and are used both as structural components and as conduits for utilising geothermal energy. In the scenario of the underground space in London, it is the thermo-active piles that have received most attention. However, little experimental evidence exists on the thermal behaviour of London clay to aid the design of thermo-active structures. This paper presents advanced laboratory testing on the reconstituted London clay to characterise the effect of temperature on its mechanical behaviour. Particular emphasis is given to thermally induced pore water pressures, as their evolution is not well understood. Tests are conducted in a temperature-controlled isotropic cell developed at Imperial College London. The emphasis of the current paper is on the temperature-based calibrations of different transducers. Soil specimens are isotropically consolidated and then subjected to undrained heating-cooling in the temperature range of 21 to 37 °C. Results obtained are compared with an existing laboratory study on another type of clay

Linking carbonate sand fabric and mechanical anisotropy from hollow cylinder tests: motivation and application

In addition to density and stress, fabric is also a key state variable strongly affecting soil behavior. While fabric influence on mechanical behavior of soils has been investigated experimentally, the available database is limited in terms of boundary conditions and soil types tested. Offshore carbonate sediments are of special interest for offshore geotechnical analyses due to their prevalence in tropical waters and unique mechanical behavior that stems from their mostly biogenic origin. A key gap in the availability of experimental data on soil fabric relates to the anisotropy of offshore carbonate sediments. In practice, anisotropy studies (whether rigorously correlated to fabric or not) are typically carried out experimentally for simple boundary conditions such as idealized plane strain and axisymmetric states. In real geotechnical applications, stress paths subjected to soil elements in the field are far more complex, often involving the combined variations of both the orientation and magnitude of all three principal stresses. This paper presents a new multi- scale approach to assess soil fabric at the micro-scale level and relate it to the macro- mechanical response observed for generalized loading conditions. A new sampling method is illustrated that enables preservation and evaluation of the fabric of offshore sediments specimens following generalized stress disturbances imparted by a hollow cylinder apparatus. The link between fabric evolution and the observed stress-strain behavior of sand is discussed along with preliminary results. The approach is part of a broad framework that will be used to systematically study the evolution of soil fabric and anisotropy and their relationship to multi-directional loading scenarios

MOVIEMOD: An Implementable Decision-Support System for Prerelease Market Evaluation of Motion Pictures

In spite of the high financial stakes involved in marketing new motion pictures, marketing science models have not been applied to the prerelease market evaluation of motion pictures. The motion picture industry poses some unique challenges. For example, the consumer adoption process for movies is very sensitive to word-of-mouth interactions, which are difficult to measure and predict before the movie has been released. In this article, we undertake the challenge to develop and implement MOVIEMOD—a prerelease market evaluation model for the motion picture industry. MOVIEMOD is designed to generate box-office forecasts and to support marketing decisions for a new movie after the movie has been produced (or when it is available in a rough cut) but before it has been released. Unlike other forecasting models for motion pictures, the calibration of MOVIEMOD does not require any actual sales data. Also, the data collection time for a product with a limited lifetime such as a movie should not take too long. For MOVIEMOD it takes only three hours in a “consumer clinic” to collect the data needed for the prediction of box-office sales and the evaluation of alternative marketing plans. The model is based on a behavioral representation of the consumer adoption process for movies as a macroflow process. The heart of MOVIEMOD is an interactive Markov chain model describing the macro-flow process. According to this model, at any point in time with respect to the movie under study, a consumer can be found in one of the following behavioral states: undecided, considerer, rejecter, positive spreader, negative spreader, and inactive. The progression of consumers through the behavioral states depends on a set of movie-specific factors that are related to the marketing mix, as well as on a set of more general behavioral factors that characterize the movie-going behavior in the population of interest. This interactive Markov chain model allows us to account for word-of-mouth interactions among potential adopters and several types of word-of-mouth spreaders in the population. Marketing variables that influence the transitions among the states are movie theme acceptability, promotion strategy, distribution strategy, and the movie experience. The model is calibrated in a consumer clinic experiment. Respondents fill out a questionnaire with general items related to their movie-going and movie communication behavior, they are exposed to different sets of information stimuli, they are actually shown the movie, and finally, they fill outpostmovie evaluations, including word-of-mouth intentions.These measures are used to estimate the word-of-mouth parameters and other behavioral factors, as well as the movie-specific parameters of the model. MOVIEMOD produces forecasts of the awareness, adoption intention, and cumulative penetration for a new movie within the population of interest for a given base marketing plan. It also provides diagnostic information on the likely impact of alternative marketing plans on the commercial performance of a new movie. We describe two applications of MOVIEMOD: One is a pilot study conducted without studio cooperation in the United States, and the other is a full-fledged implementation conducted with cooperation of the movie\u27s distributor and exhibitor in the Netherlands. The implementations suggest that MOVIEMOD produces reasonably accurate forecasts of box-office performance. More importantly, the model offers the opportunity to simulate the effects of alternative marketing plans. In the Dutch application, the effects of extra advertising, extra magazine articles, extra TV commercials, and higher trailer intensity (compared to the base marketing plan of the distributor) were analyzed. We demonstrate the value of these decision-support capabilities of MOVIEMOD in assisting managers to identify a final plan that resulted in an almost 50% increase in the test movie\u27s revenue performance, compared to the marketing plan initially contemplated. Management implemented this recommended plan, which resulted in box-office sales that were within 5% of the MOVIEMOD prediction. MOVIEMOD was also tested against several benchmark models, and its prediction was better in all cases. An evaluation of MOVIEMOD jointly by the Dutch exhibitor and the distributor showed that both parties were positive about and appreciated its performance as a decision-support tool. In particular, the distributor, who has more stakes in the domestic performance of its movies, showed a great interest in using MOVIEMOD for subsequent evaluations of new movies prior to their release. Based on such evaluations and the initial validation results, MOVIEMOD can fruitfully (and inexpensively) be used to provide researchers and managers with a deeper understanding of the factors that drive audience response to new motion pictures, and it can be instrumental in developing other decision-support systems that can improve the odds of commercial success of new experiential products

Filtering When Object Custody is Ambiguous

Filtering involves predicting the future state of a space object in orbit about the earth given observations (e.g. angles-only or radar measurements) about its current and past states. The task is simplest when the identity of the object is known. A recently developed “Adapted STructural (AST)” coordinate system enables the task to be carried out in a computationally efficient manner. Propagation for a single state (or a small number of sigma points) can be carried out using Keplerian dynamics or using a numerically more expensive propagator to accommodate perturbation effects. In either case, the uncertainty can be represented in AST coordinates as Gaussian to a high level of accuracy. An Unscented Kalman Filter (UKF) has been developed in this situation; in particular, there is no need to use particle filters. However, when object custody is uncertain, i.e. when the latest observation might correspond to two or more objects in a catalog, the filtering task is more complicated. In this case we propose a mixture of Gaussians in AST coordinates to represent the state. The paper will demonstrate the feasibility of this approach

Geological investigation of palaeotsunamis in the Samoan islands: interim report and research directions

The Komandorsky seismic gap has distinctive boundaries and a length of 650 km. Its period of “seismic silence” comes close to the maximum recurrence interval for great earthquakes in the Aleutian Island Arc - the stress concentration here probably having reached the critical value. So,estimation of possible earthquake and tsunami characteristics within this gap becomes a significant problem. The closest analog of a similar gap is the area where the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman catastrophic event occurred. Thus, for the present study we used the same modeling scheme as we used for that event. It was assumed that a source length of 650 km, consisting of 9 blocks, and an earthquake with a moment magnitude MW=8.5. Several block motion scenarios were considered. The tsunami generation and propagation in the Pacific Ocean and the possible wave characteristics on near and far-field coasts were estimated. Modeling of such an event showed that the wave heights on different Pacific coasts will vary from 3 to 9 meters. A tsunami wave with a 9-meter height is capable in causing significant loss of human life and economic damage.© 2013, Tsunami Society International

Evolution of the soot particle size distribution along the centreline of an n-heptane/toluene co-flow diffusion flame

A newly developed experimental set-up for studying liquid hydrocarbon combustion in the well-established Yale burner was used to investigate the correlation between fuel composition and its sooting propensity. Soot particle size distributions (PSDs) and flame temperatures along the centreline of an n-heptane/toluene co-flow diffusion flame are reported. The results are compared to soot temperature and volume fraction profiles obtained using colour ratio pyrometry. The addition of toluene (0, 5, 10, and 15 mol%) to heptane moved soot inception to lower heights above the burner (HAB). The earlier inception extended the soot growth zone in the toluene-laden flames, leading to larger soot primary and agglomerate particles. Toluene addition had little influence on the maximum soot number density, indicating that the observed increase in soot volume fraction can mainly be attributed to the increase in particle size. The reported PSDs inside a vapour-fed diffusion flame are the first of their kind and provide a comprehensive dataset for future studies of combustion chemistry and soot particle models

Black Holes: Scatterers, Absorbers and Emitters of Particles

Accurate and powerful analytic and computational methods developped by the author allow to obtain the highly non trivial total absorption spectrum of the Black Hole, as well as phase shifts and cross sections (elastic and inelastic), the angular distribution of absorbed and scattered waves, and the Hawking emission rates. The exact total absorption spectrum of waves by the Black Hole presents as a function of frequency a remarkable oscillatory behaviour characteristic of a diffraction pattern. It oscillates around its optical geometric limit (27/4) pi (r_s)^2 with decreasing amplitude and almost constant period. This is an unique distinctive feature of the black hole absorption, and due to its r=0 singularity. Ordinary absorptive bodies and optical models do not present these features. The Hamiltonian describing the wave-black hole interaction is non hermitian (despite being real) due to its singularity at the origin (r=0). The unitarity optical theorem of scattering theory is generalized to the black hole case explicitely showing that absorption takes place only at the origin (r = 0). All these results allow to understand and reproduce the Black Hole absorption spectrum in terms of Fresnel-Kirchoff diffraction theory. These fundamental features will be present for generic higher dimensional Black Hole backgrounds, and whatever the low energy effective theory they arise from. In recent and increasing litterature on absorption cross sections (`grey body factors') of black holes (whatever ordinary, stringy, D-braned), the fundamental remarkable features of the Black Hole Absorption spectrum are overlooked.Comment: LaTex, 19 pages, Lectures delivered at the Chalonge School, Nato ASI: Phase Transitions in the Early Universe: Theory and Observations. To appear in the Proceedings, Editors H. J. de Vega, I. Khalatnikov, N. Sanchez. (Kluwer Pub

Guidelines for the management of glucocorticoids during the peri-operative period for patients with adrenal insufficiency: Guidelines from the Association of Anaesthetists, the Royal College of Physicians and the Society for Endocrinology UK

These guidelines aim to ensure that patients with adrenal insufficiency are identified and adequately supplemented with glucocorticoids during the peri-operative period. There are two major categories of adrenal insufficiency. Primary adrenal insufficiency is due to diseases of the adrenal gland (failure of the hormone-producing gland), and secondary adrenal insufficiency is due to deficient adrenocorticotropin hormone secretion by the pituitary gland, or deficient corticotropin-releasing hormone secretion by the hypothalamus (failure of the regulatory centres). Patients taking physiological replacement doses of corticosteroids for either primary or secondary adrenal insufficiency are at significant risk of adrenal crisis and must be given stress doses of hydrocortisone during the peri-operative period. Many more patients other than those with adrenal and hypothalamic-pituitary causes of adrenal failure are receiving glucocorticoids as treatment for other medical conditions. Daily doses of prednisolone of 5 mg or greater in adults and 10-15 mg.m-2 hydrocortisone equivalent or greater in children may result in hypothalamo-pituitary-adrenal axis suppression if administered for 1 month or more by oral, inhaled, intranasal, intra-articular or topical routes; this chronic administration of glucocorticoids is the most common cause of secondary adrenal suppression, sometimes referred to as tertiary adrenal insufficiency. A pragmatic approach to adrenal replacement during major stress is required; considering the evidence available, blanket recommendations would not be appropriate, and it is essential for the clinician to remember that adrenal replacement dosing following surgical stress or illness is in addition to usual steroid treatment. Patients with previously undiagnosed adrenal insufficiency sometimes present for the first time following the stress of surgery. Anaesthetists must be familiar with the symptoms and signs of acute adrenal insufficiency so that inadequate supplementation or undiagnosed adrenal insufficiency can be detected and treated promptly. Delays may prove fatal

Evidence of seasonality in the diagnosis of monocytic leukaemia

Evidence of seasonality in the diagnosis of monocytic leukaemia in England and Wales is presented, with a maximum diagnosis rate in February/March and a minimum in August/September. Previous published results for monocytic leukaemia are of small sample size yet appear consistent with this finding

Characterizing Debris in the Infrared with UKIRT

The United Kingdom Infrared Telescope (UKIRT) has been a major asset for the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (OPDO) since March, 2014. With the UKIRT current contract coming to an end at the finish of FY15, there is a golden opportunity for this community to fund and gain access to UKIRT as an SSA asset through HCAR (Hawaii Center for Astronautics Research). UKIRT is the only telescope on Mauna Kea dedicated to infrared bands. Spectral coverage ranges from the near- (0.8-5m) to the mid- to far-infrared (8-25 micrometer) regime. To date, debris observations have been collected with three instruments. Near-Infrared photometry with ZYJHK filters has been obtained with the Wide Field Camera (WFCam). Near-Infrared (1-2.5 micrometer) spectra are the focus of observations taken with the UKIRT Imager SpecTrometer (UIST). And Michelle (Mid Infrared escCHELLE) is a thermal imager-spectrometer designed for the 8-25 micrometer regime. With 35% of the telescope time allocated to ODPO, a very steady stream of data has been collected on a variety of debris targets using all the above instrumentation. Initial results from WFCam were discussed at AMOS and NISOI including analyses on IDCSPs, the MSG cooler and baffle covers. The cylindrical HS-376 buses were the focus of recent WFCam runs. Summary analyses of these works will be presented. Focus will be given to initial results of the data collected with the Cassegrain instruments, UIST and Michelle. UIST spectra were collected in September 2014, March and April 2015. Targets included a suite of HS-376 buses, well suited to investigate the signatures of blue solar panels; several dead satellites with solar array wings; Titan 3C transtage debris; the CTA Array cover, and others. In addition, Michelle mid-IR photometry was collected on a select few objects during the April 2015 run. Using WFCam, UIST and Michelle the Lockheed Martin has been observing operational satellites in the near- mid and far-infrared regime in an attempt to understand the health and status of several satellites that are based on the Lockheed Martin A2100 bus. The potential insights into debris characterization using this range of assets, and early analyses will be discussed, as well as the opportunities possible for utilizing UKIRT as an SSA asset