Le régime du double marché des changes sous les Tropiques : une analyse théorique

Dans cet article, nous présentons un modèle de double marché des changes. La principale innovation de notre étude est l’inclusion de transactions croisées, ou de liaisons légales ou illégales entre les deux compartiments du marché des changes. L’existence de liaisons entre les marchés complique sensiblement le fonctionnement d’une telle économie car les résidents nationaux peuvent acquérir des actifs financiers étrangers alors qu’ils ne le peuvent pas lorsque les deux compartiments du marché sont parfaitement cloisonnés. En faisant la distinction entre des liaisons « à l’importation » ou « à l’exportation », nous analysons dans l’article l’impact de perturbations exogènes sur le taux d’intérêt, le niveau des prix et le taux de change financier.In this paper we present a model of a dual exchange-rate system. The innovation of the model is the formal inclusion of cross market transactions, or "leakages" between the two markets. This greatly complicates the workings of the economy with dual rates because domestic residents can change the size of their holdings of foreign assets. This is not the case with the fully insulated dual rate system. We draw the distinction between "import" and "export leakage" and we show the different impacts of external disturbances on domestic interest rate, price level and free exchange rate under the two types of leakages

Growth, debt, and sovereign risk in a small, open economy

The continuing debt crisis that many developing countries have faced in the current decade has underscored the need to understand the relationships between debt accumulation and growth, as well as the need to develop policy approaches that foster adjustment in the external account while maintaining the growth of output. The purpose of this paper is to develop a macroeconomic model for a small open developing economy that borrows abroad. This model will assist in studying the dynamic interaction between debt and growth, as well as the impact of various policies and exogenous shocks on the rate of capital accumulation, the current account and debt. From this analysis, the authors make the following conclusions. An upward shift in the supply of debt leads to a long run decline in external debt, a higher domestic interest rate, less capital stock, and a reduced trade surplus. An increase in the marginal cost of debt may or may not lower long run external debt as well. An increase in productivity raises the long run stock of capital but leaves the level of external debt and the interest rate unchanged in the long run. Finally, fiscal expansion has almost no effect in either the short run or the long run.Economic Theory&Research,Environmental Economics&Policies,Strategic Debt Management,Banks&Banking Reform,Financial Intermediation

Le régime du double marché des changes sous les Tropiques : une analyse théorique

In this paper we present a model of a dual exchange-rate system. The innovation of the model is the formal inclusion of cross market transactions, or "leakages" between the two markets. This greatly complicates the workings of the economy with dual rates because domestic residents can change the size of their holdings of foreign assets. This is not the case with the fully insulated dual rate system. We draw the distinction between "import" and "export leakage" and we show the different impacts of external disturbances on domestic interest rate, price level and free exchange rate under the two types of leakages. Dans cet article, nous présentons un modèle de double marché des changes. La principale innovation de notre étude est l’inclusion de transactions croisées, ou de liaisons légales ou illégales entre les deux compartiments du marché des changes. L’existence de liaisons entre les marchés complique sensiblement le fonctionnement d’une telle économie car les résidents nationaux peuvent acquérir des actifs financiers étrangers alors qu’ils ne le peuvent pas lorsque les deux compartiments du marché sont parfaitement cloisonnés. En faisant la distinction entre des liaisons « à l’importation » ou « à l’exportation », nous analysons dans l’article l’impact de perturbations exogènes sur le taux d’intérêt, le niveau des prix et le taux de change financier.

Speculative Attacks and Models of Balance-of-Payments Crises

This paper reviews recent developments in the theoretical and empirical analysis of balance-of-payments crises. A simple analytical model highlighting the process leading to such crises is first developed. The basic framework is then extended to deal with a variety of issues, such as: alternative post-collapse regimes, uncertainty, real sector effects, external borrowing and capital controls, imperfect asset substitutability, sticky prices, and endogenous policy switches. Empirical evidence on the collapse of exchange rate regimes is also examined, and the major implications of the analysis for macroeconomic policy are discussed.

Low intensity pulsed ultrasonography for fractures: systematic review of randomised controlled trials

Objective To determine the efficacy of low intensity pulsed ultrasonography for healing of fractures