Mathematical techniques for estimating operational readiness of complex systems

Development of methods for predicting operational readiness of complex systems based on probability theory is discussed. Operational readiness of systems is defined and mathematical relationships involved in determining readiness are presented. Example of reliability engineering and quality control is included

Two examples of non strictly convex large deviations

We present two examples of a large deviations principle where the rate function is not strictly convex. This is motivated by a model used in mathematical finance (the Heston model), and adds a new item to the zoology of non strictly convex large deviations. For one of these examples, we show that the rate function of the Cramer-type of large deviations coincides with that of the Freidlin-Wentzell when contraction principles are applied.Comment: 11 page

Search for anisotropic effects of hcp solid helium on optical lines of cesium impurities

The anisotropic effect of a hcp 4He solid matrix on cesium atoms has been proposed as a tool to reveal the parity violating anapole moment of its nucleus. It should also result in splitting the D2 optical excitation line in a way depending on the light polarization. An experimental investigation has been set up using oriented hcp helium crystals in which cesium metal grains are embedded. Atoms are created by laser sputtering from this grains. Optical absorption spectra of the D2 line have been recorded in the temperature range of 1.0 to 1.4 K at liquid/solid coexistence pressure by monitoring the fluorescence on the D2 line at 950 nm. No significant effect of the light polarization has been found, suggesting a statistically isotropic disordered solid environment for the cesium atoms.Comment: The original publication will be available at http://www.springerlink.co

Centre selection for clinical trials and the generalisability of results: a mixed methods study.

BACKGROUND: The rationale for centre selection in randomised controlled trials (RCTs) is often unclear but may have important implications for the generalisability of trial results. The aims of this study were to evaluate the factors which currently influence centre selection in RCTs and consider how generalisability considerations inform current and optimal practice. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Mixed methods approach consisting of a systematic review and meta-summary of centre selection criteria reported in RCT protocols funded by the UK National Institute of Health Research (NIHR) initiated between January 2005-January 2012; and an online survey on the topic of current and optimal centre selection, distributed to professionals in the 48 UK Clinical Trials Units and 10 NIHR Research Design Services. The survey design was informed by the systematic review and by two focus groups conducted with trialists at the Birmingham Centre for Clinical Trials. 129 trial protocols were included in the systematic review, with a total target sample size in excess of 317,000 participants. The meta-summary identified 53 unique centre selection criteria. 78 protocols (60%) provided at least one criterion for centre selection, but only 31 (24%) protocols explicitly acknowledged generalisability. This is consistent with the survey findings (n = 70), where less than a third of participants reported generalisability as a key driver of centre selection in current practice. This contrasts with trialists' views on optimal practice, where generalisability in terms of clinical practice, population characteristics and economic results were prime considerations for 60% (n = 42), 57% (n = 40) and 46% (n = 32) of respondents, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Centres are rarely enrolled in RCTs with an explicit view to external validity, although trialists acknowledge that incorporating generalisability in centre selection should ideally be more prominent. There is a need to operationalize 'generalisability' and incorporate it at the design stage of RCTs so that results are readily transferable to 'real world' practice

Status, scientific results and technical improvements of the NBH on TCV tokamak

The TCV tokamak contributes to physics understanding in fusion reactor research by a wide set of experimental tools, like flexible shaping and high power ECRH. A 1MW, 25 keV deuterium heating neutral beam (NB) has been installed in 2015 and it was operated from 2016 in SPC-TCV domestic and EUROfusion MST1 experimental campaigns ((similar to)50/50%). The rate of failures of the beam is less than 5%. Ion temperatures up to 3.5 keV have been achieved in ELMy H-mode, with a good agreement with ASTRA predictive simulations. The NB enables TCV to access ITER-like beta(N) values (1.8) and T-e/T-i (similar to)1, allowing investigations of innovative plasma features in ITER relevant ELMy H-mode. The advanced Tokamak route was also pursued, with stationary, fully non-inductive discharges sustained by ECCD and NBCD reaching beta(similar to)(N)1.4-1.7. Real-time control of the NB power has been implemented in 2018 and presented together with the statistics of NB operation on the TCV. During commissioning, the NB showed unacceptable heating of the TCV beam duct, indicating a higher power deposition than expected on duct walls. A high beam divergence has been found by dedicated measurement of 3-D beam power density distribution with an expressly designed device (IR measurement on tungsten target)