Projecting species distributions using fishery‐dependent data

Many marine species are shifting their distributions in response to changing ocean conditions, posing significant challenges and risks for fisheries management. Species distribution models (SDMs) are used to project future species distributions in the face of a changing climate. Information to fit SDMs generally comes from two main sources: fishery-independent (scientific surveys) and fishery-dependent (commercial catch) data. A concern with fishery-dependent data is that fishing locations are not independent of the underlying species abundance, potentially biasing predictions of species distributions. However, resources for fishery-independent surveys are increasingly limited; therefore, it is critical we understand the strengths and limitations of SDMs developed from fishery-dependent data. We used a simulation approach to evaluate the potential for fishery-dependent data to inform SDMs and abundance estimates and quantify the bias resulting from different fishery-dependent sampling scenarios in the California Current System (CCS). We then evaluated the ability of the SDMs to project changes in the spatial distribution of species over time and compare the time scale over which model performance degrades between the different sampling scenarios and as a function of climate bias and novelty. Our results show that data generated from fishery-dependent sampling can still result in SDMs with high predictive skill several decades into the future, given specific forms of preferential sampling which result in low climate bias and novelty. Therefore, fishery-dependent data may be able to supplement information from surveys that are reduced or eliminated for budgetary reasons to project species distributions into the future

Vulnerability to climate change of managed stocks in the California Current large marine ecosystem

Introduction: Understanding how abundance, productivity and distribution of individual species may respond to climate change is a critical first step towards anticipating alterations in marine ecosystem structure and function, as well as developing strategies to adapt to the full range of potential changes. Methods: This study applies the NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) Fisheries Climate Vulnerability Assessment method to 64 federally-managed species in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem to assess their vulnerability to climate change, where vulnerability is a function of a species’ exposure to environmental change and its biological sensitivity to a set of environmental conditions, which includes components of its resiliency and adaptive capacity to respond to these new conditions. Results: Overall, two-thirds of the species were judged to have Moderate or greater vulnerability to climate change, and only one species was anticipated to have a positive response. Species classified as Highly or Very Highly vulnerable share one or more characteristics including: 1) having complex life histories that utilize a wide range of freshwater and marine habitats; 2) having habitat specialization, particularly for areas that are likely to experience increased hypoxia; 3) having long lifespans and low population growth rates; and/or 4) being of high commercial value combined with impacts from non-climate stressors such as anthropogenic habitat degradation. Species with Low or Moderate vulnerability are either habitat generalists, occupy deep-water habitats or are highly mobile and likely to shift their ranges. Discussion: As climate-related changes intensify, this work provides key information for both scientists and managers as they address the long-term sustainability of fisheries in the region. This information can inform near-term advice for prioritizing species-level data collection and research on climate impacts, help managers to determine when and where a precautionary approach might be warranted, in harvest or other management decisions, and help identify habitats or life history stages that might be especially effective to protect or restore

Perda da espontaneidade da ação: o desconforto de homens que sofreram infarto agudo do miocardio Perdida de la expontaneidad de la accion: el desconforto de hombres que sufrieron infarto agudo del miocardio Undergoing loss of spontaneous action: the discomfort experienced by men having suffered acute myocardial infarction

Considerando que conforto - cuja promoção é uma das metas centrais da enfermagem -- e desconforto devem ser entendidos àluz das interações vivenciadas pelo paciente - e, portanto, vinculadas aos fatores objetivos das instituições, da nacionalidade epráticas que as fundamentam - este estudo investigou os significados de conforto e desconforto na perspectiva de homens quesofreram infarto agudo do miocárdio (IAM). Recorrendo ao Interacionismo Simbólico eàmetodologia da Teoria Fundamentadanos Dados, entrevistas foram feitas com 13 homens que sofreram IAM, em duas unidades de saúde na cidade de São Paulo. Aanálise permitiu construir um modelo teórico daqueles significados nessa experiência, caracterizada por três fenômenos eessencialmente permeada pelo desconforto de "padecer a perda da espontaneidade daação ".Este artigo resume o processopsicossocial básico da experiência, discutindo suas implicações para questionar o modelo clínico de intervenção, apontando apossibilidade de a enfermagem atuar na prevenção e propondo questões para aprimorar a formação do enfermeiro.<br>Considerando que conforto - cuya promoción es una de las metas centralés de la enfermeria - y desconforto deven ser entendidos a la luz de las interacciones vivenciadas por el paciente e por lo tanto, vinculadas a los factores objetivos de las instituciones, dela racionalidad y de las prácticas que las fundamentan - este estudio investigo los significados de conforto e desconforto en la prespectiva de hombres que sufrieron infarto agudo del miocardio (IAM). Acudiendo al Interaccionismo SimbólicoYala meto-dologia de la Teoria Fudamentada en los datos, fueron realizadas entrevistas com 13 hombres que sufrieron IAM en dos unida-des de salud en la cuidad de São Paulo. El análisis permitio construir um modelo teórico de aquellos significados en esa experi-encia, caracterizada por tres fenómenos y esencialmente condicionada por el desconforto de "padecer la pérdida de la exponta-neidad de la accion". Este artículo, resume el proceso psicosocial básico de la experiencia, discutiendo sus implicancias paracuestionar el modelo clínico de intervención, apuntando la posibilidad dela enfermera para actuar en la prevención y proponerideas para aprimorar la formación del enfermero.<br>Considering that comfort and discomfort must be understood in the light of patients' interactions during illness and treatment- thus linked to institutions' objective factors, grounding rationale, and practices -, this study inquired on comfort and discom-fort such as experienced by men who had suffered acute myocardial infarction (AMI). By resorting to the Symbolic Interactionismand to Grounded Theory methodology, data were collected by means of interviews with 13 men who had suffered AMI, at twohealth units in the city of São Paulo. The analysis led to building a theoretical model of such experience, made up by threephenomena and essentially pervaded by the discomfort of "undergoing loss of spontaneous action". This articles sums up thebasic psychosocial process that emerges from that experience, and discusses its implications to question the clinical model oftreatment, pointing to prevention as a further scope of action for nurses, besides raising issues to enhance nurse education

Recommendations for quantifying and reducing uncertainty in climate projections of species distributions.

Projecting the future distributions of commercially and ecologically important species has become a critical approach for ecosystem managers to strategically anticipate change, but large uncertainties in projections limit climate adaptation planning. Although distribution projections are primarily used to understand the scope of potential change-rather than accurately predict specific outcomes-it is nonetheless essential to understand where and why projections can give implausible results and to identify which processes contribute to uncertainty. Here, we use a series of simulated species distributions, an ensemble of 252 species distribution models, and an ensemble of three regional ocean climate projections, to isolate the influences of uncertainty from earth system model spread and from ecological modeling. The simulations encompass marine species with different functional traits and ecological preferences to more broadly address resource manager and fishery stakeholder needs, and provide a simulated true state with which to evaluate projections. We present our results relative to the degree of environmental extrapolation from historical conditions, which helps facilitate interpretation by ecological modelers working in diverse systems. We found uncertainty associated with species distribution models can exceed uncertainty generated from diverging earth system models (up to 70% of total uncertainty by 2100), and that this result was consistent across species traits. Species distribution model uncertainty increased through time and was primarily related to the degree to which models extrapolated into novel environmental conditions but moderated by how well models captured the underlying dynamics driving species distributions. The predictive power of simulated species distribution models remained relatively high in the first 30 years of projections, in alignment with the time period in which stakeholders make strategic decisions based on climate information. By understanding sources of uncertainty, and how they change at different forecast horizons, we provide recommendations for projecting species distribution models under global climate change