Exponential martingales and changes of measure for counting processes

We give sufficient criteria for the Dol\'eans-Dade exponential of a stochastic integral with respect to a counting process local martingale to be a true martingale. The criteria are adapted particularly to the case of counting processes and are sufficiently weak to be useful and verifiable, as we illustrate by several examples. In particular, the criteria allow for the construction of for example nonexplosive Hawkes processes as well as counting processes with stochastic intensities depending on diffusion processes

A comparative study of cranial, blunt trauma fractures as seen at medicolegal autopsy and by Computed Tomography

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Computed Tomography (CT) has become a widely used supplement to medico legal autopsies at several forensic institutes. Amongst other things, it has proven to be very valuable in visualising fractures of the cranium. Also CT scan data are being used to create head models for biomechanical trauma analysis by Finite Element Analysis. If CT scan data are to be used for creating individual head models for retrograde trauma analysis in the future we need to ascertain how well cranial fractures are captured by CT scan. The purpose of this study was to compare the diagnostic agreement between CT and autopsy regarding cranial fractures and especially the precision with which cranial fractures are recorded.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The autopsy fracture diagnosis was compared to the diagnosis of two CT readings (reconstructed with Multiplanar and Maximum Intensity Projection reconstructions) by registering the fractures on schematic drawings. The extent of the fractures was quantified by merging 3-dimensional datasets from both the autopsy as input by 3D digitizer tracing and CT scan.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The results showed a good diagnostic agreement regarding fractures localised in the posterior fossa, while the fracture diagnosis in the medial and anterior fossa was difficult at the first CT scan reading. The fracture diagnosis improved during the second CT scan reading. Thus using two different CT reconstructions improved diagnosis in the medial fossa and at the impact points in the cranial vault. However, fracture diagnosis in the anterior and medial fossa and of hairline fractures in general still remained difficult.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The study showed that the forensically important fracture systems to a large extent were diagnosed on CT images using Multiplanar and Maximum Intensity Projection reconstructions. Difficulties remained in the minute diagnosis of hairline fractures. These inconsistencies need to be resolved in order to use CT scan data of victims for individual head modelling and trauma analysis.</p

Investigating the causal effect of smoking on hay fever and asthma: a Mendelian randomization meta-analysis in the CARTA consortium

AbstractObservational studies on smoking and risk of hay fever and asthma have shown inconsistent results. However, observational studies may be biased by confounding and reverse causation. Mendelian randomization uses genetic variants as markers of exposures to examine causal effects. We examined the causal effect of smoking on hay fever and asthma by using the smoking-associated single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) rs16969968/rs1051730. We included 231,020 participants from 22 population-based studies. Observational analyses showed that current vs never smokers had lower risk of hay fever (odds ratio (OR) = 0·68, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0·61, 0·76; P &lt; 0·001) and allergic sensitization (OR = 0·74, 95% CI: 0·64, 0·86; P &lt; 0·001), but similar asthma risk (OR = 1·00, 95% CI: 0·91, 1·09; P = 0·967). Mendelian randomization analyses in current smokers showed a slightly lower risk of hay fever (OR = 0·958, 95% CI: 0·920, 0·998; P = 0·041), a lower risk of allergic sensitization (OR = 0·92, 95% CI: 0·84, 1·02; P = 0·117), but higher risk of asthma (OR = 1·06, 95% CI: 1·01, 1·11; P = 0·020) per smoking-increasing allele. Our results suggest that smoking may be causally related to a higher risk of asthma and a slightly lower risk of hay fever. However, the adverse events associated with smoking limit its clinical significance.</jats:p