Public services: are composite measures a robust reflection of performance in the public sector?

A composite indicator is an aggregated index comprising individual performance indicators. Composite indicators integrate a large amount of information in a format that is easily understood and are therefore a valuable tool for conveying a summary assessment of performance in priority areas. This research investigates the degree to which composite measures are an appropriate metric for evaluating performance in the public sector. Do they reflect accurately the performance of organisations? To what degree are they influenced by the uncertainty surrounding underlying indicators on which they are based? Are they robust and stable over time? The construction of composite measures creates specific methodological challenges that make such questions especially pertinent. We address these through a series of quantitative analyses of panel data relating to healthcare (Star ratings of NHS acute Trusts) and local government (Comprehensive Performance Assessment (CPA) ratings of authorities) in England where composites have been widely used. The creation of a composite comprises a number of important steps, each of which requires careful judgement. These include the specification of the choice of indicators, the transformation of measured performance on individual indicators, the specification of a set of weights on individual indicators, and combining the indicators using aggregation methods or decision rules. We use Monte Carlo simulations to examine the robustness of performance judgements to these different technical choices. We show the extent to which composites provide stable performance rankings of organisations over time and assess whether variations are due to genuine performance improvement or merely the result of random statistical variation. The analysis suggests that the judgements that have to be made in the construction of the composite can have a significant impact on the resulting score. Technical and analytical issues in the design of composite indicators have important policy implications. We highlight the issues which need to be considered in the construction of robust composite indicators so that they can be designed in ways which will minimise the potential for producing misleading performance information which may fail to deliver the expected improvements or even induce unwanted side-effects.performance measurement, performance indicators, composite indicators

Exploring the impact of public services on quality of life indicators

The fundamental aim of public services is to improve the quality of life of citizens. The main objective of this study was to investigate the influence of public service organisations (PSOs) on aspects of quality of life (broadly measured) of citizens at a local level. We assembled a rich database using 20 of the 45 quality of life measures developed by the Audit Commission. Those we selected covered broad areas of quality of life such as safety, housing, health, education, and transport and were available at ‘small area’ level. We used a range of advanced statistical methods to analyse the relationships between PSOs and quality of life measures at different hierarchical levels. The techniques were selected to be robust when making comparisons between levels and when looking at associations between quality of life measures. Our descriptive analyses (bivariate correlations, factor analysis and ANOVA) suggested overall some significant correlations between some of the quality of life variables. The SUR model results also indicated that the quality of life indicators are correlated, and therefore that we should look at these measures in a joint modelling approach such as MVML, as envisaged in the study objectives.

The Effect of Budgets on Doctor Behaviour: Evidence From A Natural Experiment

In many health care systems primary care physicians act as 'gatekeepers' to secondary care. We investigates the impact of the UK fundholding scheme under which general practices could elect to hold a budget to meet the costs of elective surgery for their patients. We use a differences in differences methodology on a large four year panel of English general practices before and after the abolition of fundholding. Fundholding incentives reduced fundholder elective admission rates by 3.3% and accounted for 57% of the difference between fundholder and nonfundholder elective admissions, with 43% a selection effect due to unobservable differences in practice characteristics. Fundholding had no effect on emergency admissions.Budgets; Health care; Fundholding; Admission rates

The effects on waiting times of expanding provider choice:evidence from a policy experiment

Long waiting times for inpatient treatment in the UK National Health Service have long been a source of great popular and political concern, and therefore a target for policy initiatives. One such is the London Patient Choice Project, under which patients at risk of breaching inpatient waiting time targets were offered the choice of an alternative hospital with a guaranteed shorter wait. This paper uses a difference in difference econometric methodology to infer the impact of the choice project on ophthalmology waiting times. In line with our theoretical predictions, it finds that the project led to lower average waiting times in the London region and a convergence in waiting times amongst London hospitals.

Roles of Diverse Stakeholders in Natural Resources Management and Their Relationships with Regional Bodies in New South Wales, Australia

Governments invest in natural resource management (NRM) because of a lack or failure of markets for ecosystem services and to encourage the adoption of NRM practices that reduce the externalities of resource use (Cary et al., 2002; Beare & Newby, 2005; Stanley et al., 2005). Major global trends in NRM include a greater emphasis on community participation, decentralised activity to the regional scale, a shift from government to governance and a narrowing of the framing of environment policy to a largely utilitarian concept of NRM (Lane et al., 2009). Successive state and national governments in Australia, in actively seeking to improve the condition of Australias natural resources, established a series of funding arrangements for their protection and enhancement (reviewed by Hajkowicz, 2009; Lockwood et al., 2009). In concert with this funding has been a greater emphasis on accountability for expenditure on public environmental programs because delivery of tangible impacts through recently established regional arrangements has proved difficult to quantify (eg. Australian National Audit Office, 2008)

Assessing recent warming using instrumentally homogeneous sea surface temperature records

Sea surface temperature (SST) records are subject to potential biases due to changing instrumentation and measurement practices. Significant differences exist between commonly used composite SST reconstructions from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Extended Reconstruction Sea Surface Temperature (ERSST), the Hadley Centre SST data set (HadSST3), and the Japanese Meteorological Agency’s Centennial Observation-Based Estimates of SSTs (COBE-SST) from 2003 to the present. The update from ERSST version 3b to version 4 resulted in an increase in the operational SST trend estimate during the last 19 years from 0.07° to 0.12°C per decade, indicating a higher rate of warming in recent years. We show that ERSST version 4 trends generally agree with largely independent, near-global, and instrumentally homogeneous SST measurements from floating buoys, Argo floats, and radiometer-based satellite measurements that have been developed and deployed during the past two decades. We find a large cooling bias in ERSST version 3b and smaller but significant cooling biases in HadSST3 and COBE-SST from 2003 to the present, with respect to most series examined. These results suggest that reported rates of SST warming in recent years have been underestimated in these three data sets

On a minimal model for estimating climate sensitivity

In a recent issue of this journal, Loehle (2014) presents a "minimal model" for estimating climate sensitivity, identical to that previously published by Loehle and Scafetta (2011). The novelty in the more recent paper lies in the straightforward calculation of an estimate of transient climate response based on the model and an estimate of equilibrium climate sensitivity derived therefrom, via a flawed methodology. We demonstrate that the Loehle and Scafetta model systematically underestimates the transient climate response, due to a number of unsupportable assumptions regarding the climate system. Once the flaws in Loehle and Scafetta's model are addressed, the estimates of transient climate response and equilibrium climate sensitivity derived from the model are entirely consistent with those obtained from general circulation models, and indeed exclude the possibility of low climate sensitivity, directly contradicting the principal conclusion drawn by Loehle. Further, we present an even more parsimonious model for estimating climate sensitivity. Our model is based on observed changes in radiative forcings, and is therefore constrained by physics, unlike the Loehle model, which is little more than a curve-fitting exercise

The Expectation Monad in Quantum Foundations

The expectation monad is introduced abstractly via two composable adjunctions, but concretely captures measures. It turns out to sit in between known monads: on the one hand the distribution and ultrafilter monad, and on the other hand the continuation monad. This expectation monad is used in two probabilistic analogues of fundamental results of Manes and Gelfand for the ultrafilter monad: algebras of the expectation monad are convex compact Hausdorff spaces, and are dually equivalent to so-called Banach effect algebras. These structures capture states and effects in quantum foundations, and also the duality between them. Moreover, the approach leads to a new re-formulation of Gleason's theorem, expressing that effects on a Hilbert space are free effect modules on projections, obtained via tensoring with the unit interval.Comment: In Proceedings QPL 2011, arXiv:1210.029

Markarian 421's Unusual Satellite Galaxy

We present Hubble Space Telescope (HST) imagery and photometry of the active galaxy Markarian 421 and its companion galaxy 14 arcsec to the ENE. The HST images indicate that the companion is a morphological spiral rather than elliptical as previous ground--based imaging has concluded. The companion has a bright, compact nucleus, appearing unresolved in the HST images. This is suggestive of Seyfert activity, or possibly a highly luminous compact star cluster. We also report the results of high dynamic range long-slit spectroscopy with the slit placed to extend across both galaxies and nuclei. We detect no emission lines in the companion nucleus, though there is evidence for recent star formation. Velocities derived from a number of absorption lines visible in both galaxies indicate that the two systems are probably tidally bound and thus in close physical proximity. Using the measured relative velocities, we derive a lower limit on the MKN 421 mass within the companion orbit (R \sim 10 kpc) of 5.9 \times 10^{11} solar masses, and a mass-to-light ratio of >= 17. Our spectroscopy also shows for the first time the presence of H\alpha and [NII] emission lines from the nucleus of MKN 421, providing another example of the appearance of new emission features in the previously featureless spectrum of a classical BL Lac object. We see both broad and narrow line emission, with a velocity dispersion of several thousand km s^{-1} evident in the broad lines.Comment: LaTeX (aaspp4 style), 28 pages, 8 figures, to appear in AJ. Revised text from ref. comments; new & modified figures; new photometry included; minor corrections of typos. Color version of Fig. 1 to appear in Feb. 2000 Sky & Telescop