Estimating the prevalence of breast cancer using a disease model: data problems and trends

BACKGROUND: Health policy and planning depend on quantitative data of disease epidemiology. However, empirical data are often incomplete or are of questionable validity. Disease models describing the relationship between incidence, prevalence and mortality are used to detect data problems or supplement missing data. Because time trends in the data affect their outcome, we compared the extent to which trends and known data problems affected model outcome for breast cancer. METHODS: We calculated breast cancer prevalence from Dutch incidence and mortality data (the Netherlands Cancer Registry and Statistics Netherlands) and compared this to regionally available prevalence data (Eindhoven Cancer Registry, IKZ). Subsequently, we recalculated the model adjusting for 1) limitations of the prevalence data, 2) a trend in incidence, 3) secondary primaries, and 4) excess mortality due to non-breast cancer deaths. RESULTS: There was a large discrepancy between calculated and IKZ prevalence, which could be explained for 60% by the limitations of the prevalence data plus the trend in incidence. Secondary primaries and excess mortality had relatively small effects only (explaining 17% and 6%, respectively), leaving a smaller part of the difference unexplained. CONCLUSION: IPM models can be useful both for checking data inconsistencies and for supplementing incomplete data, but their results should be interpreted with caution. Unknown data problems and trends may affect the outcome and in the absence of additional data, expert opinion is the only available judge

Functional outcome and quality of life 5 and 12.5 years after aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage

Patients who recover from aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage (SAH) often remain disabled or have persisting symptoms with a reduced quality of life (QoL). We assessed functional outcome and QoL 5 and 12.5 years after SAH. In a consecutive series of 64 patients with mean age at SAH of 51 years, initial outcome assessments had been performed at 4 and 18 months after SAH. At the initial and current outcome assessments, functional outcome was measured with the modified Rankin Scale (mRS) and QoL with the SF-36 and a visual analogue scale (VAS). We studied the change in outcome measurements over time. We used the non-parametric Wilcoxon test to compare differences in mRS grades and calculated differences with corresponding 95% confidence intervals in the domain scores of the SF-36 and the VAS. After 5 years, seven patients had died and five patients had missing data. Compared with the 4-month follow-up, the mRS had improved in 29 of the 52 patients, remained similar in 19 patients. The overall QoL (SF-36 domains and VAS score) was better. At 12.5 years an additional six patients had died. Compared to the 4-month study, 25 of the 46 remaining patients had improved mRS, 12 had remained the same and in nine patients the mRS had worsened. Between the 5 and the 12.5 years follow-up, the improvement in mRS had decreased but patients reported overall a better QoL. Among long-time survivors, QoL may improve more than a decade after SAH

Semi-analytic results for quasi-normal frequencies

The last decade has seen considerable interest in the quasi-normal frequencies [QNFs] of black holes (and even wormholes), both asymptotically flat and with cosmological horizons. There is wide agreement that the QNFs are often of the form omega_n = (offset) + i n (gap), though some authors have encountered situations where this behaviour seems to fail. To get a better understanding of the general situation we consider a semi-analytic model based on a piecewise Eckart (Poeschl-Teller) potential, allowing for different heights and different rates of exponential falloff in the two asymptotic directions. This model is sufficiently general to capture and display key features of the black hole QNFs while simultaneously being analytically tractable, at least for asymptotically large imaginary parts of the QNFs. We shall derive an appropriate "quantization condition" for the asymptotic QNFs, and extract as much analytic information as possible. In particular, we shall explicitly verify that the (offset)+ i n (gap) behaviour is common but not universal, with this behaviour failing unless the ratio of rates of exponential falloff on the two sides of the potential is a rational number. (This is "common but not universal" in the sense that the rational numbers are dense in the reals.) We argue that this behaviour is likely to persist for black holes with cosmological horizons.Comment: V1: 28 pages, no figures. V2: 3 references added, no physics changes. V3: 29 pages, 9 references added, no physics changes; V4: reformatted, now 27 pages. Some clarifications, comparison with results obtained by monodromy techniques. This version accepted for publication in JHEP. V5: Minor typos fixed. Compatible with published versio

Patient-Reported Outcome questionnaires for hip arthroscopy: a systematic review of the psychometric evidence

Abstract Background Hip arthroscopies are often used in the treatment of intra-articular hip injuries. Patient-reported outcomes (PRO) are an important parameter in evaluating treatment. It is unclear which PRO questionnaires are specifically available for hip arthroscopy patients. The aim of this systematic review was to investigate which PRO questionnaires are valid and reliable in the evaluation of patients undergoing hip arthroscopy. Methods A search was conducted in Pubmed, Medline, CINAHL, the Cochrane Library, Pedro, EMBASE and Web of Science from 1931 to October 2010. Studies assessing the quality of PRO questionnaires in the evaluation of patients undergoing hip arthroscopy were included. The quality of the questionnaires was evaluated by the psychometric properties of the outcome measures. The quality of the articles investigating the questionnaires was assessed by the COSMIN list. Results Five articles identified three questionnaires; the Modified Harris Hip Score (MHHS), the Nonarthritic Hip Score (NAHS) and the Hip Outcome Score (HOS). The NAHS scored best on the content validity, whereas the HOS scored best on agreement, internal consistency, reliability and responsiveness. The quality of the articles describing the HOS scored highest. The NAHS is the best quality questionnaire. The articles describing the HOS are the best quality articles. Conclusions This systematic review shows that there is no conclusive evidence for the use of a single patient-reported outcome questionnaire in the evaluation of patients undergoing hip arthroscopy. Based on available psychometric evidence we recommend using a combination of the NAHS and the HOS for patients undergoing hip arthroscopy.</p

Fitness Ranking of Individual Mutants Drives Patterns of Epistatic Interactions in HIV-1

This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited

Current Welfare Problems Facing Horses in Great Britain as Identified by Equine Stakeholders

Despite growing concerns about the welfare of horses in Great Britain (GB) there has been little surveillance of the welfare status of the horse population. Consequently we have limited knowledge of the range of welfare problems experienced by horses in GB and the situations in which poor welfare occurs. Thirty-one in-depth interviews were conducted with a cross -section of equine stakeholders, in order to explore their perceptions of the welfare problems faced by horses in GB. Welfare problems relating to health, management and riding and training were identified, including horses being under or over weight, stabling 24 hours a day and the inappropriate use of training aids. The interviewees also discussed broader contexts in which they perceived that welfare was compromised. The most commonly discussed context was where horses are kept in unsuitable environments, for example environments with poor grazing. The racing industry and travellers horses were identified as areas of the industry where horse welfare was particularly vulnerable to compromise. Lack of knowledge and financial constraints were perceived to be the root cause of poor welfare by many interviewees. The findings give insight into the range of welfare problems that may be faced by horses in GB, the contexts in which these may occur and their possible causes. Many of the problems identified by the interviewees have undergone limited scientific investigation pointing to areas where further research is likely to be necessary for welfare improvement. The large number of issues identified suggests that some form of prioritisation may be necessary to target research and resources effectively

Incidence of cancer in the area around Amsterdam Airport Schiphol in 1988–2003: a population-based ecological study

BACKGROUND: Amsterdam Airport Schiphol is a major source of complaints about aircraft noise, safety risks and concerns about long term adverse health effects, including cancer. We investigated whether residents of the area around Schiphol are at higher risk of developing cancer than the general Dutch population. METHODS: In a population-based study using the regional cancer registry, we estimated the cancer incidence during 1988–2003 in residents of the area surrounding Schiphol. We defined a study area based on aircraft noise contours and 4-digit postal code areas, since historical data on ambient air pollution were not available and recent emission data did not differ from the background urban air quality. RESULTS: In residents of the study area 13 207 cancer cases were diagnosed, which was close to the expected number, using national incidence rates as a reference (standardized incidence ratio [SIR] 1.02). We found a statistically significantly increased incidence of hematological malignancies (SIR 1.12, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.05, 1.19), mainly due to high rates for non-Hodgkin lymphoma (SIR 1.22, 95% CI: 1.12, 1.33) and acute lymphoblastic leukemia (SIR 1.34, 95% CI: 0.95, 1.83). The incidence of cancer of the respiratory system was statistically significantly decreased (SIR 0.94, 95% CI: 0.90, 0.99), due to the low rate in males (SIR 0.89). In the core zone of the study area, cancer incidence was slightly higher than in the remaining ring zone (rate ratio of the core zone compared to the ring zone 1.05, 95% CI 1.01, 1.10). This was caused by the higher incidence of cancer of the respiratory system, prostate and the female genital organs in the core zone in comparison to the ring zone. CONCLUSION: The overall cancer incidence in the Schiphol area was similar to the national incidence. The moderately increased risk of hematological malignancies could not be explained by higher levels of ambient air pollution in the Schiphol area. This observation warrants further research, for example in a study with focus on substances in urban ambient air pollution, as similar findings were observed in Greater Amsterdam

The impact of predation by marine mammals on Patagonian toothfish longline fisheries

Predatory interaction of marine mammals with longline fisheries is observed globally, leading to partial or complete loss of the catch and in some parts of the world to considerable financial loss. Depredation can also create additional unrecorded fishing mortality of a stock and has the potential to introduce bias to stock assessments. Here we aim to characterise depredation in the Patagonian toothfish (Dissostichus eleginoides) fishery around South Georgia focusing on the spatio-temporal component of these interactions. Antarctic fur seals (Arctocephalus gazella), sperm whales (Physeter macrocephalus), and orcas (Orcinus orca) frequently feed on fish hooked on longlines around South Georgia. A third of longlines encounter sperm whales, but loss of catch due to sperm whales is insignificant when compared to that due to orcas, which interact with only 5% of longlines but can take more than half of the catch in some cases. Orca depredation around South Georgia is spatially limited and focused in areas of putative migration routes, and the impact is compounded as a result of the fishery also concentrating in those areas at those times. Understanding the seasonal behaviour of orcas and the spatial and temporal distribution of “depredation hot spots” can reduce marine mammal interactions, will improve assessment and management of the stock and contribute to increased operational efficiency of the fishery. Such information is valuable in the effort to resolve the human-mammal conflict for resources

Problem Behavior in Children of Chronically Ill Parents: A Meta-Analysis

The aim of this meta-analysis is to examine whether children of chronically ill parents differ from norm groups in problem behavior. We report moderator effects and overall effect sizes for internalizing, externalizing and total problem behavior assessed by children and parents. In fixed effect models, we found a significant overall effect size for internalizing problem behavior (number of studies k = 19, total sample size N = 1,858, Cohen’s d = .23, p < .01) and externalizing problem behavior (k = 13, N = 1,525, d = .09, p < .01) but not for total problem behavior (k = 7; N = 896). Effects for internalizing and externalizing problem behavior were larger in non-cancer studies, in samples including younger children and younger ill parents, in samples defined by low average SES and in studies including parents with longer illness duration. In addition, effects for externalizing problem behavior were larger in studies characterized by a higher percentage of ill mothers and single parents. With exclusive self-report, effect sizes were significant for all problem behaviors. Based on these results, a family-centered approach in health care is recommended

Interplay between pleiotropy and secondary selection determines rise and fall of mutators in stress response

Dramatic rise of mutators has been found to accompany adaptation of bacteria in response to many kinds of stress. Two views on the evolutionary origin of this phenomenon emerged: the pleiotropic hypothesis positing that it is a byproduct of environmental stress or other specific stress response mechanisms and the second order selection which states that mutators hitchhike to fixation with unrelated beneficial alleles. Conventional population genetics models could not fully resolve this controversy because they are based on certain assumptions about fitness landscape. Here we address this problem using a microscopic multiscale model, which couples physically realistic molecular descriptions of proteins and their interactions with population genetics of carrier organisms without assuming any a priori fitness landscape. We found that both pleiotropy and second order selection play a crucial role at different stages of adaptation: the supply of mutators is provided through destabilization of error correction complexes or fluctuations of production levels of prototypic mismatch repair proteins (pleiotropic effects), while rise and fixation of mutators occur when there is a sufficient supply of beneficial mutations in replication-controlling genes. This general mechanism assures a robust and reliable adaptation of organisms to unforeseen challenges. This study highlights physical principles underlying physical biological mechanisms of stress response and adaptation