Jay Forrester

Jay Wright Forrester was an American engineer and management thinker. He founded System Dynamics, an approach based on computer modelling which arguably has done more than any other method to provide a practical and realistic analysis of change processes in systems. System Dynamics (SD) has been taken up across the world, initially by Forrester’s students and colleagues, but increasingly by a much wider community. It has had profound and influential applications in a range of fields, most prominently organisational management, urban planning and environmental policy. Forrester summed up his concerns and his understanding of SD in an ‘elevator pitch’ (a statement short enough to be spoken in an elevator ride) on an email list: System dynamics deals with how things change through time, which includes most of what most people find important. It uses computer simulation to take the knowledge we already have about details in the world around us and to show why our social and physical systems behave the way they do. System dynamics demonstrates how most of our own decision-making policies are the cause of the problems that we usually blame on others, and how to identify policies we can follow to improve our situation. (Forrester JW. System dynamics in the elevator. System-dynamics email list. https://www.ventanasystems.co.uk/forum/viewtopic.php?t=1787#p1964. Accessed 25 Sept 2019, 1997

Recruitment of ethnic minority patients to a cardiac rehabilitation trial: the Birmingham Rehabilitation Uptake Maximisation (BRUM) study [ISRCTN72884263]

This is the final version of the article. Available from the publisher via the DOI in this record.BACKGROUND: Concerns have been raised about low participation rates of people from minority ethnic groups in clinical trials. However, the evidence is unclear as many studies do not report the ethnicity of participants and there is insufficient information about the reasons for ineligibility by ethnic group. Where there are data, there remains the key question as to whether ethnic minorities more likely to be ineligible (e.g. due to language) or decline to participate. We have addressed these questions in relation to the Birmingham Rehabilitation Uptake Maximisation (BRUM) study, a randomized controlled trial (RCT) comparing a home-based with a hospital-based cardiac rehabilitation programme in a multi-ethnic population in the UK. METHODS: Analysis of the ethnicity, age and sex of presenting and recruited subjects for a trial of cardiac rehabilitation in the West-Midlands, UK. PARTICIPANTS: 1997 patients presenting post-myocardial infarction, percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty or coronary artery bypass graft surgery. DATA COLLECTED: Exclusion rates, reasons for exclusion and reasons for declining to participate in the trial by ethnic group. RESULTS: Significantly more patients of South Asian ethnicity were excluded (52% of 'South Asian' v 36% 'White European' and 36% 'Other', p < 0.001). This difference in eligibility was primarily due to exclusion on the basis of language (i.e. the inability to speak English or Punjabi). Of those eligible, similar proportions were recruited from the different ethnic groups (white, South Asian and other). There was a marked difference in eligibility between people of Indian, Pakistani or Bangladeshi origin. CONCLUSION: Once eligible for this trial, people from different ethnic groups were recruited in similar proportions. The reason for ineligibility in the BRUM study was the inability to support the range of minority languages.The BRUM study is funded by the NHS HTA Programme

Suitability of PSA-detected localised prostate cancers for focal therapy: Experience from the ProtecT study

This article is available through a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-Share Alike 3.0 Unported License. Copyright @ 2011 Cancer Research UK.Background: Contemporary screening for prostate cancer frequently identifies small volume, low-grade lesions. Some clinicians have advocated focal prostatic ablation as an alternative to more aggressive interventions to manage these lesions. To identify which patients might benefit from focal ablative techniques, we analysed the surgical specimens of a large sample of population-detected men undergoing radical prostatectomy as part of a randomised clinical trial. Methods: Surgical specimens from 525 men who underwent prostatectomy within the ProtecT study were analysed to determine tumour volume, location and grade. These findings were compared with information available in the biopsy specimen to examine whether focal therapy could be provided appropriately. Results: Solitary cancers were found in prostatectomy specimens from 19% (100 out of 525) of men. In addition, 73 out of 425 (17%) men had multiple cancers with a solitary significant tumour focus. Thus, 173 out of 525 (33%) men had tumours potentially suitable for focal therapy. The majority of these were small, well-differentiated lesions that appeared to be pathologically insignificant (38–66%). Criteria used to select patients for focal prostatic ablation underestimated the cancer's significance in 26% (34 out of 130) of men and resulted in overtreatment in more than half. Only 18% (24 out of 130) of men presumed eligible for focal therapy, actually had significant solitary lesions. Conclusion: Focal therapy appears inappropriate for the majority of men presenting with prostate-specific antigen-detected localised prostate cancer. Unifocal prostate cancers suitable for focal ablation are difficult to identify pre-operatively using biopsy alone. Most lesions meeting criteria for focal ablation were either more aggressive than expected or posed little threat of progression.National Institute for Health Researc

Protecting eyewitness evidence: Examining the efficacy of a self-administered interview tool

Given the crucial role of eyewitness evidence, statements should be obtained as soon as possible after an incident. This is not always achieved due to demands on police resources. Two studies trace the development of a new tool, the Self-Administered Interview (SAI), designed to elicit a comprehensive initial statement. In Study 1, SAI participants reported more correct details than participants who provided a free recall account, and performed at the same level as participants given a Cognitive Interview. In Study 2, participants viewed a simulated crime and half recorded their statement using the SAI. After a delay of 1 week, all participants completed a free recall test. SAI participants recalled more correct details in the delayed recall task than control participants

Culture-Independent Microbiological Analysis of Foley Urinary Catheter Biofilms

Background: Prevention of catheter-associated urinary tract infection (CAUTI), a leading cause of nosocomial disease, is complicated by the propensity of bacteria to form biofilms on indwelling medical devices [1,2,3,4,5]. Methodology/Principal Findings: To better understand the microbial diversity of these communities, we report the results of a culture-independent bacterial survey of Foley urinary catheters obtained from patients following total prostatectomy. Two patient subsets were analyzed, based on treatment or no treatment with systemic fluoroquinolone antibiotics during convalescence. Results indicate the presence of diverse polymicrobial assemblages that were most commonly observed in patients who did not receive systemic antibiotics. The communities typically contained both Gram-positive and Gramnegative microorganisms that included multiple potential pathogens. Conclusion/Significance: Prevention and treatment of CAUTI must take into consideration the possible polymicrobial nature of any particular infection

Churg-Strauss syndrome following cessation of allergic desensitization vaccination: a case report

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Introduction</p> <p>Churg-Strauss syndrome is a vasculitis of medium to small sized vessels. Diagnosis is mainly clinical with findings of asthma, eosinophilia, rhinosinusitis and signs of vasculitis in major organs.</p> <p>Case presentation</p> <p>We present a case of a 19-year-old Persian male who developed signs and symptoms of this syndrome related to hyposensitization treatments for allergy control.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>No unifying etiology for the disease can be presented as it is found associated with environmental factors, medications, infections and is even considered a variant of asthma with predisposition to vasculitic involvement. Therefore, it is important to recognize this disease and be aware of underdiagnosis because of emphasis on pathologic evidence. Here, we present a case of allergic desensitization causing Churg-Strauss syndrome in the absence of other known factors.</p

Experimental design and statistical rigor in phylogenomics of horizontal and endosymbiotic gene transfer

A growing number of phylogenomic investigations from diverse eukaryotes are examining conflicts among gene trees as evidence of horizontal gene transfer. If multiple foreign genes from the same eukaryotic lineage are found in a given genome, it is increasingly interpreted as concerted gene transfers during a cryptic endosymbiosis in the organism's evolutionary past, also known as "endosymbiotic gene transfer" or EGT. A number of provocative hypotheses of lost or serially replaced endosymbionts have been advanced; to date, however, these inferences largely have been post-hoc interpretations of genomic-wide conflicts among gene trees. With data sets as large and complex as eukaryotic genome sequences, it is critical to examine alternative explanations for intra-genome phylogenetic conflicts, particularly how much conflicting signal is expected from directional biases and statistical noise. The availability of genome-level data both permits and necessitates phylogenomics that test explicit, a priori predictions of horizontal gene transfer, using rigorous statistical methods and clearly defined experimental controls

Mercury in Nelson's Sparrow Subspecies at Breeding Sites

Background: Mercury is a persistent, biomagnifying contaminant that can cause negative effects on ecosystems. Marshes are often areas of relatively high mercury methylation and bioaccumulation. Nelson’s Sparrows (Ammodramus nelsoni) use marsh habitats year-round and have been documented to exhibit tissue mercury concentrations that exceed negative effects thresholds. We sought to further characterize the potential risk of Nelson’s Sparrows to mercury exposure by sampling individuals from sites within the range of each of its subspecies