Improvements in prevalence trend fitting and incidence estimation in EPP 2013

OBJECTIVE: Describe modifications to the latest version of the Joint United Nations Programme on AIDS (UNAIDS) Estimation and Projection Package component of Spectrum (EPP 2013) to improve prevalence fitting and incidence trend estimation in national epidemics and global estimates of HIV burden. METHODS: Key changes made under the guidance of the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling and Projections include: availability of a range of incidence calculation models and guidance for selecting a model; a shift to reporting the Bayesian median instead of the maximum likelihood estimate; procedures for comparison and validation against reported HIV and AIDS data; incorporation of national surveys as an integral part of the fitting and calibration procedure, allowing survey trends to inform the fit; improved antenatal clinic calibration procedures in countries without surveys; adjustment of national antiretroviral therapy reports used in the fitting to include only those aged 15–49 years; better estimates of mortality among people who inject drugs; and enhancements to speed fitting. RESULTS: The revised models in EPP 2013 allow closer fits to observed prevalence trend data and reflect improving understanding of HIV epidemics and associated data. CONCLUSION: Spectrum and EPP continue to adapt to make better use of the existing data sources, incorporate new sources of information in their fitting and validation procedures, and correct for quantifiable biases in inputs as they are identified and understood. These adaptations provide countries with better calibrated estimates of incidence and prevalence, which increase epidemic understanding and provide a solid base for program and policy planning

A comparative framework: how broadly applicable is a 'rigorous' critical junctures framework?

The paper tests Hogan and Doyle's (2007, 2008) framework for examining critical junctures. This framework sought to incorporate the concept of ideational change in understanding critical junctures. Until its development, frameworks utilized in identifying critical junctures were subjective, seeking only to identify crisis, and subsequent policy changes, arguing that one invariably led to the other, as both occurred around the same time. Hogan and Doyle (2007, 2008) hypothesized ideational change as an intermediating variable in their framework, determining if, and when, a crisis leads to radical policy change. Here we test this framework on cases similar to, but different from, those employed in developing the exemplar. This will enable us determine whether the framework's relegation of ideational change to a condition of crisis holds, or, if ideational change has more importance than is ascribed to it by this framework. This will also enable us determined if the framework itself is robust, and fit for the purposes it was designed to perform — identifying the nature of policy change

Evaluating strategies to improve HIV care outcomes in Kenya: a modelling study

Background With expanded access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) in sub-Saharan Africa, HIV mortality has decreased, yet life-years are still lost to AIDS. Strengthening of treatment programmes is a priority. We examined the state of an HIV care programme in Kenya and assessed interventions to improve the impact of ART programmes on population health. Methods We created an individual-based mathematical model to describe the HIV epidemic and the experiences of care among adults infected with HIV in Kenya. We calibrated the model to a longitudinal dataset from the Academic Model Providing Access To Healthcare (known as AMPATH) programme describing the routes into care, losses from care, and clinical outcomes. We simulated the cost and effect of interventions at different stages of HIV care, including improvements to diagnosis, linkage to care, retention and adherence of ART, immediate ART eligibility, and a universal test-and-treat strategy. Findings We estimate that, of people dying from AIDS between 2010 and 2030, most will have initiated treatment (61%), but many will never have been diagnosed (25%) or will have been diagnosed but never started ART (14%). Many interventions targeting a single stage of the health-care cascade were likely to be cost-effective, but any individual intervention averted only a small percentage of deaths because the effect is attenuated by other weaknesses in care. However, a combination of five interventions (including improved linkage, point-of-care CD4 testing, voluntary counselling and testing with point-of-care CD4, and outreach to improve retention in pre-ART care and on-ART) would have a much larger impact, averting 1·10 million disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and 25% of expected new infections and would probably be cost-effective (US$571 per DALY averted). This strategy would improve health more efficiently than a universal test-and-treat intervention if there were no accompanying improvements to care ($1760 per DALY averted). Interpretation When resources are limited, combinations of interventions to improve care should be prioritised over high-cost strategies such as universal test-and-treat strategy, especially if this is not accompanied by improvements to the care cascade. International guidance on ART should reflect alternative routes to programme strengthening and encourage country programmes to evaluate the costs and population-health impact in addition to the clinical benefits of immediate initiation

Nucleosynthesis in Advective Accretion Disks Around Galactic and Extra-Galactic Black Holes

We compute the nucleosynthesis of materials inside advective disks around black holes. We show that composition of incoming matter can change significantly depending on the accretion rate and accretion disks. These works are improvements on the earlier works in thick accretion disks of Chakrabarti, Jin & Arnett (1987) in presence of advection in the flow.Comment: Latex pages including figures. Kluwer Style files included. Appearing in `Observational Evidence for Black Holes in the Universe', ed. Sandip K. Chakrabarti, Kluwer Academic Publishers (DORDRECHT: Holland

Molecular crowding defines a common origin for the Warburg effect in proliferating cells and the lactate threshold in muscle physiology

Aerobic glycolysis is a seemingly wasteful mode of ATP production that is seen both in rapidly proliferating mammalian cells and highly active contracting muscles, but whether there is a common origin for its presence in these widely different systems is unknown. To study this issue, here we develop a model of human central metabolism that incorporates a solvent capacity constraint of metabolic enzymes and mitochondria, accounting for their occupied volume densities, while assuming glucose and/or fatty acid utilization. The model demonstrates that activation of aerobic glycolysis is favored above a threshold metabolic rate in both rapidly proliferating cells and heavily contracting muscles, because it provides higher ATP yield per volume density than mitochondrial oxidative phosphorylation. In the case of muscle physiology, the model also predicts that before the lactate switch, fatty acid oxidation increases, reaches a maximum, and then decreases to zero with concomitant increase in glucose utilization, in agreement with the empirical evidence. These results are further corroborated by a larger scale model, including biosynthesis of major cell biomass components. The larger scale model also predicts that in proliferating cells the lactate switch is accompanied by activation of glutaminolysis, another distinctive feature of the Warburg effect. In conclusion, intracellular molecular crowding is a fundamental constraint for cell metabolism in both rapidly proliferating- and non-proliferating cells with high metabolic demand. Addition of this constraint to metabolic flux balance models can explain several observations of mammalian cell metabolism under steady state conditions

Modelling informative time points: an evolutionary process approach

Real time series sometimes exhibit various types of "irregularities": missing observations, observations collected not regularly over time for practical reasons, observation times driven by the series itself, or outlying observations. However, the vast majority of methods of time series analysis are designed for regular time series only. A particular case of irregularly spaced time series is that in which the sampling procedure over time depends also on the observed values. In such situations, there is stochastic dependence between the process being modelled and the times of the observations. In this work, we propose a model in which the sampling design depends on all past history of the observed processes. Taking into account the natural temporal order underlying available data represented by a time series, then a modelling approach based on evolutionary processes seems a natural choice. We consider maximum likelihood estimation of the model parameters. Numerical studies with simulated and real data sets are performed to illustrate the benefits of this model-based approach.- The authors acknowledge Foundation FCT (FundacAo para a Ciencia e Tecnologia) as members of the research project PTDC/MAT-STA/28243/2017 and Center for Research & Development in Mathematics and Applications of Aveiro University within project UID/MAT/04106/2019

Approaches to the evaluation of outbreak detection methods

BACKGROUND: An increasing number of methods are being developed for the early detection of infectious disease outbreaks which could be naturally occurring or as a result of bioterrorism; however, no standardised framework for examining the usefulness of various outbreak detection methods exists. To promote comparability between studies, it is essential that standardised methods are developed for the evaluation of outbreak detection methods. METHODS: This analysis aims to review approaches used to evaluate outbreak detection methods and provide a conceptual framework upon which recommendations for standardised evaluation methods can be based. We reviewed the recently published literature for reports which evaluated methods for the detection of infectious disease outbreaks in public health surveillance data. Evaluation methods identified in the recent literature were categorised according to the presence of common features to provide a conceptual basis within which to understand current approaches to evaluation. RESULTS: There was considerable variation in the approaches used for the evaluation of methods for the detection of outbreaks in public health surveillance data, and appeared to be no single approach of choice. Four main approaches were used to evaluate performance, and these were labelled the Descriptive, Derived, Epidemiological and Simulation approaches. Based on the approaches identified, we propose a basic framework for evaluation and recommend the use of multiple approaches to evaluation to enable a comprehensive and contextualised description of outbreak detection performance. CONCLUSION: The varied nature of performance evaluation demonstrated in this review supports the need for further development of evaluation methods to improve comparability between studies. Our findings indicate that no single approach can fulfil all evaluation requirements. We propose that the cornerstone approaches to evaluation identified provide key contributions to support internal and external validity and comparability of study findings, and suggest these be incorporated into future recommendations for performance assessment

Transgenic CHD1L Expression in Mouse Induces Spontaneous Tumors

Background: Amplification of 1q21 is the most frequent genetic alteration in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), which was detected in 58-78% of primary HCC cases by comparative genomic hybridization (CGH). Using chromosome microdissection/ hybrid selection approach we recently isolated a candidate oncogene CHD1L from 1q21 region. Our previous study has demonstrated that CHD1L had strong oncogenic ability, which could be effectively suppressed by siRNA against CHD1L. The molecular mechanism of CHD1L in tumorigenesis has been associated with its role in promoting cell proliferation. Methodology/Principal Findings: To further investigate the in vivo oncogenic role of CHD1L, CHD1L ubiquitous-expression transgenic mouse model was generated. Spontaneous tumor formations were found in 10/41 (24.4%) transgenic mice, including 4 HCCs, but not in their 39 wild-type littermates. In addition, alcohol intoxication was used to induce hepatocyte pathological lesions and results found that overexpression of CHD1L in hepatocytes could promote tumor susceptibility in CHD1L-transgenic mice. To address the mechanism of CHD1L in promoting cell proliferation, DNA content between CHD1Ltransgenic and wildtype mouse embryo fibroblasts (MEFs) was compared by flow cytometry. Flow cytometry results found that CHD1L could facilitate DNA synthesis and G1/ S transition through the up-regulation of Cyclin A, Cyclin D1, Cyclin E, CDK2, and CDK4, and down-regulation of Rb, p27Kip1, and p53. Conclusion/Significance: Taken together, our data strongly support that CHD1L is a novel oncogene and plays an important role in HCC pathogenesis. © 2009 Chen et al.published_or_final_versio

Conceptualizing pathways linking women's empowerment and prematurity in developing countries.

BackgroundGlobally, prematurity is the leading cause of death in children under the age of 5. Many efforts have focused on clinical approaches to improve the survival of premature babies. There is a need, however, to explore psychosocial, sociocultural, economic, and other factors as potential mechanisms to reduce the burden of prematurity. Women's empowerment may be a catalyst for moving the needle in this direction. The goal of this paper is to examine links between women's empowerment and prematurity in developing settings. We propose a conceptual model that shows pathways by which women's empowerment can affect prematurity and review and summarize the literature supporting the relationships we posit. We also suggest future directions for research on women's empowerment and prematurity.MethodsThe key words we used for empowerment in the search were "empowerment," "women's status," "autonomy," and "decision-making," and for prematurity we used "preterm," "premature," and "prematurity." We did not use date, language, and regional restrictions. The search was done in PubMed, Population Information Online (POPLINE), and Web of Science. We selected intervening factors-factors that could potentially mediate the relationship between empowerment and prematurity-based on reviews of the risk factors and interventions to address prematurity and the determinants of those factors.ResultsThere is limited evidence supporting a direct link between women's empowerment and prematurity. However, there is evidence linking several dimensions of empowerment to factors known to be associated with prematurity and outcomes for premature babies. Our review of the literature shows that women's empowerment may reduce prematurity by (1) preventing early marriage and promoting family planning, which will delay age at first pregnancy and increase interpregnancy intervals; (2) improving women's nutritional status; (3) reducing domestic violence and other stressors to improve psychological health; and (4) improving access to and receipt of recommended health services during pregnancy and delivery to help prevent prematurity and improve survival of premature babies.ConclusionsWomen's empowerment is an important distal factor that affects prematurity through several intervening factors. Improving women's empowerment will help prevent prematurity and improve survival of preterm babies. Research to empirically show the links between women's empowerment and prematurity is however needed

Increasing body mass index from age 5 to 14 years predicts asthma among adolescents: evidence from a birth cohort study

Background:Obesity and asthma are common disorders, and the prevalence of both has increased in recent decades. It has been suggested that increases in the prevalence of obesity might in part explain the increase in asthma prevalence. This study aims to examine the prospective association between change in body mass index (BMI) z-score between ages 5 and 14 years and asthma symptoms at 14 years. Methods:Data was taken from the Mater University Study of Pregnancy and its outcomes (MUSP), a birth cohort of 7223 mothers and children started in Brisbane (Australia) in 1981. BMI was measured at age 5 and 14 years. Asthma was assessed from maternal reports of symptoms at age 5 and 14 years. In this study analyses were conducted on 2911 participants who had information on BMI and asthma at both ages. Results: BMI z-score at age 14 and the change in BMI z-score from age 5 to 14–years were positively associated with asthma symptoms at age 14 years, whereas BMI z-score at age 5 was not associated with asthma at age 14. Adjustment for a range of early-life exposures did not substantially alter these findings. The association between change in BMI z-score with asthma symptoms at 14 years appeared stronger for male subjects compared with female subjects but there was no statistical evidence for a sex difference (P=0.36). Conclusions: Increase in BMI z-score between age 5 and 14 years is associated with increased risk of asthma symptoms in adolescence