Is the even distribution of insecticide-treated cattle essential for tsetse control? Modelling the impact of baits in heterogeneous environments

Background: Eliminating Rhodesian sleeping sickness, the zoonotic form of Human African Trypanosomiasis, can be achieved only through interventions against the vectors, species of tsetse (Glossina). The use of insecticide-treated cattle is the most cost-effective method of controlling tsetse but its impact might be compromised by the patchy distribution of livestock. A deterministic simulation model was used to analyse the effects of spatial heterogeneities in habitat and baits (insecticide-treated cattle and targets) on the distribution and abundance of tsetse. Methodology/Principal Findings: The simulated area comprised an operational block extending 32 km from an area of good habitat from which tsetse might invade. Within the operational block, habitat comprised good areas mixed with poor ones where survival probabilities and population densities were lower. In good habitat, the natural daily mortalities of adults averaged 6.14% for males and 3.07% for females; the population grew 8.46in a year following a 90% reduction in densities of adults and pupae, but expired when the population density of males was reduced to <0.1/km2; daily movement of adults averaged 249 m for males and 367 m for females. Baits were placed throughout the operational area, or patchily to simulate uneven distributions of cattle and targets. Gaps of 2–3 km between baits were inconsequential provided the average imposed mortality per km2 across the entire operational area was maintained. Leaving gaps 5–7 km wide inside an area where baits killed 10% per day delayed effective control by 4–11 years. Corrective measures that put a few baits within the gaps were more effective than deploying extra baits on the edges. Conclusions/Significance: The uneven distribution of cattle within settled areas is unlikely to compromise the impact of insecticide-treated cattle on tsetse. However, where areas of >3 km wide are cattle-free then insecticide-treated targets should be deployed to compensate for the lack of cattle

Modeling the Control of Trypanosomiasis Using Trypanocides or Insecticide-Treated Livestock

In Uganda, cattle are an important reservoir for Trypanosoma brucei rhodesiense, the causative agent of Rhodesian sleeping sickness (human African trypanosomiasis), transmitted by tsetse flies Glossina fuscipes fuscipes, which feed on cattle, humans, and wild vertebrates, particularly monitor lizards. Trypanosomiasis can be controlled by treating livestock with trypanocides or insecticide – killing parasites or vectors, respectively. Mathematical modeling of trypanosomiasis was used to compare the impact of drug- and insecticide-based interventions on R0 with varying densities of cattle, humans and wild hosts. Intervention impact changes with the number of cattle treated and the proportion of bloodmeals tsetse take from cattle. R0 was always reduced more by treating cattle with insecticide rather than trypanocides. In the absence of wild hosts, the model suggests that control of sleeping sickness (R0<1) could be achieved by treating ∼65% of cattle with trypanocides or ∼20% with insecticide. Required coverage increases as wild mammals provide increasing proportion of tsetse bloodmeals: if 60% of non-human bloodmeals are from wild hosts then all cattle have to be treated with insecticide. Conversely, it is reduced if lizards, which do not harbor trypanosomes, are important hosts and/or if insecticides are used at a scale where tsetse numbers decline

BED Estimates of HIV Incidence: Resolving the Differences, Making Things Simpler

Objective: Develop a simple method for optimal estimation of HIV incidence using the BED capture enzyme immunoassay. Design: Use existing BED data to estimate mean recency duration, false recency rates and HIV incidence with reference to a fixed time period, T. Methods: Compare BED and cohort estimates of incidence referring to identical time frames. Generalize this approach to suggest a method for estimating HIV incidence from any cross-sectional survey. Results: Follow-up and BED analyses of the same, initially HIV negative, cases followed over the same set time period T, produce estimates of the same HIV incidence, permitting the estimation of the BED mean recency period for cases who have been HIV positive for less than T. Follow-up of HIV positive cases over T, similarly, provides estimates of the false-recent rate appropriate for T. Knowledge of these two parameters for a given population allows the estimation of HIV incidence during T by applying the BED method to samples from cross-sectional surveys. An algorithm is derived for providing these estimates, adjusted for the false-recent rate. The resulting estimator is identical to one derived independently using a more formal mathematical analysis. Adjustments improve the accuracy of HIV incidence estimates. Negative incidence estimates result from the use of inappropriate estimates of the false-recent rate and/or from sampling error, not from any error in the adjustment procedure

Maternal effects on offspring size in a natural population of the viviparous tsetse fly

1. Theory predicts that mothers should adaptively adjust reproductive investment depending on current reserves and future reproductive opportunities. Females in better intrinsic state, or with more resources, should invest more in current reproduction than those with fewer resources. Across the lifespan, investment may increase as future reproductive opportunities decline, yet may also decline with reductions in intrinsic state. 2. Across many species, larger mothers produce larger offspring, but there is no theoretical consensus on why this is so. This pattern may be driven by variation in maternal state such as nutrition, yet few studies measure both size and nutritional state or attempt to tease apart confounding effects of size and age. 3. Viviparous tsetse flies (Glossina species) offer an excellent system to explore patterns of reproductive investment: females produce large, single offspring sequentially over the course of their relatively long life. Thus, per-brood reproductive effort can be quantified by offspring size. 4. While most tsetse reproduction research has been conducted on laboratory colonies, maternal investment was investigated in this study using a unique field method where mothers were collected as they deposited larvae, allowing simultaneous mother-offspring measurements under natural conditions. 5. It was found that larger mothers and those with a higher fat content produced larger offspring, and there was a trend for older mothers to produce slightly larger offspring. 6. The present results highlight the importance of measuring maternal nutritional state, rather than size alone, when considering maternal investment in offspring. Implications for understanding vector population dynamics are also discussed.The study received financial assistance from the World Health Organisation’s Special Programme for Research and Training in Tropical Diseases (TDR) through a grant agreement with the International Development Research Centre of Canada(106905–00) and from DFID/RCUK programme on Zoonoses and Emerging Livestock Systems (ZELS, BBSRC grant no. BB/L019035/1). S. English is supported by the Royal Society of London

Optimal strategies for controlling riverine tsetse flies using targets: a modelling study

Background: Tsetse flies occur in much of sub-Saharan Africa where they transmit the trypanosomes that cause the diseases of sleeping sickness in humans and nagana in livestock. One of the most economical and effective methods of tsetse control is the use of insecticide-treated screens, called targets, that simulate hosts. Targets have been ~1m2, but recently it was shown that those tsetse that occupy riverine situations, and which are the main vectors of sleeping sickness, respond well to targets only ~0.06m2. The cheapness of these tiny targets suggests the need to reconsider what intensity and duration of target deployments comprise the most cost-effective strategy in various riverine habitats. Methodology/Principal Findings: A deterministic model, written in Excel spreadsheets and managed by Visual Basic for Applications, simulated the births, deaths and movement of tsetse confined to a strip of riverine vegetation composed of segments of habitat in which the tsetse population was either selfsustaining, or not sustainable unless supplemented by immigrants. Results suggested that in many situations the use of tiny targets at high density for just a few months per year would be the most cost-effective strategy for rapidly reducing tsetse densities by the ~90% expected to have a great impact on the incidence of sleeping sickness. Local elimination of tsetse becomes feasible when targets are deployed in isolated situations, or where the only invasion occurs from populations that are not self-sustaining. Conclusion/Significance: Seasonal use of tiny targets deserves field trials. The ability to recognise habitat that contains tsetse populations which are not self-sustaining could improve the planning of all methods of tsetse control, against any species, in riverine, savannah or forest situations. Criteria to assist such recognition are suggested

Towards an early warning system for Rhodesian sleeping sickness in savannah areas: man-like traps for tsetse flies

Background: In the savannahs of East and Southern Africa, tsetse flies (Glossina spp.) transmit Trypanosoma brucei rhodesiense which causes Rhodesian sleeping sickness, the zoonotic form of human African trypanosomiasis. The flies feed mainly on wild and domestic animals and are usually repelled by humans. However, this innate aversion to humans can be undermined by environmental stresses on tsetse populations, so increasing disease risk. To monitor changes in risk, we need traps designed specifically to quantify the responsiveness of savannah tsetse to humans, but the traps currently available are designed to simulate other hosts. Methodology/Principal Findings: In Zimbabwe, two approaches were made towards developing a man-like trap for savannah tsetse: either modifying an ox-like trap or creating new designs. Tsetse catches from a standard ox-like trap used with and without artificial ox odor were reduced by two men standing nearby, by an average of 34% for Glossina morsitans morsitans and 56% for G. pallidipes, thus giving catches more like those made by hand-nets from men. Sampling by electrocuting devices suggested that the men stopped flies arriving near the trap and discouraged trap-entering responses. Most of human repellence was olfactory, as evidenced by the reduction in catches when the trap was used with the odor of hidden men. Geranyl acetone, known to occur in human odor, and dispensed at 0.2 mg/h, was about as repellent as human odor but not as powerfully repellent as wood smoke. New traps looking and smelling like men gave catches like those from men. Conclusion/Significance: Catches from the completely new man-like traps seem too small to give reliable indices of human repellence. Better indications would be provided by comparing the catches of an ox-like trap either with or without artificial human odor. The chemistry and practical applications of the repellence of human odor and smoke deserve further study

Using molecular data for epidemiological inference: assessing the prevalence of Trypanosoma brucei rhodesiense in Tsetse in Serengeti, Tanzania

Background: Measuring the prevalence of transmissible Trypanosoma brucei rhodesiense in tsetse populations is essential for understanding transmission dynamics, assessing human disease risk and monitoring spatio-temporal trends and the impact of control interventions. Although an important epidemiological variable, identifying flies which carry transmissible infections is difficult, with challenges including low prevalence, presence of other trypanosome species in the same fly, and concurrent detection of immature non-transmissible infections. Diagnostic tests to measure the prevalence of T. b. rhodesiense in tsetse are applied and interpreted inconsistently, and discrepancies between studies suggest this value is not consistently estimated even to within an order of magnitude. Methodology/Principal Findings: Three approaches were used to estimate the prevalence of transmissible Trypanosoma brucei s.l. and T. b. rhodesiense in Glossina swynnertoni and G. pallidipes in Serengeti National Park, Tanzania: (i) dissection/microscopy; (ii) PCR on infected tsetse midguts; and (iii) inference from a mathematical model. Using dissection/microscopy the prevalence of transmissible T. brucei s.l. was 0% (95% CI 0–0.085) for G. swynnertoni and 0% (0–0.18) G. pallidipes; using PCR the prevalence of transmissible T. b. rhodesiense was 0.010% (0–0.054) and 0.0089% (0–0.059) respectively, and by model inference 0.0064% and 0.00085% respectively. Conclusions/Significance: The zero prevalence result by dissection/microscopy (likely really greater than zero given the results of other approaches) is not unusual by this technique, often ascribed to poor sensitivity. The application of additional techniques confirmed the very low prevalence of T. brucei suggesting the zero prevalence result was attributable to insufficient sample size (despite examination of 6000 tsetse). Given the prohibitively high sample sizes required to obtain meaningful results by dissection/microscopy, PCR-based approaches offer the current best option for assessing trypanosome prevalence in tsetse but inconsistencies in relating PCR results to transmissibility highlight the need for a consensus approach to generate meaningful and comparable data

A Multi-Host Agent-Based Model for a Zoonotic, Vector-Borne Disease. A Case Study on Trypanosomiasis in Eastern Province, Zambia

Background: This paper presents a new agent-based model (ABM) for investigating T. b. rhodesiense human African trypanosomiasis (rHAT) disease dynamics, produced to aid a greater understanding of disease transmission, and essential for development of appropriate mitigation strategies. Methods: The ABM was developed to model rHAT incidence at a fine spatial scale along a 75 km transect in the Luangwa Valley, Zambia. The method offers a complementary approach to traditional compartmentalised modelling techniques, permitting incorporation of fine scale demographic data such as ethnicity, age and gender into the simulation. Results: Through identification of possible spatial, demographic and behavioural characteristics which may have differing implications for rHAT risk in the region, the ABM produced output that could not be readily generated by other techniques. On average there were 1.99 (S.E. 0.245) human infections and 1.83 (S.E. 0.183) cattle infections per 6 month period. The model output identified that the approximate incidence rate (per 1000 person-years) was lower amongst cattle owning households (0.079, S.E. 0.017), than those without cattle (0.134, S.E. 0.017). Immigrant tribes (e.g. Bemba I.R. = 0.353, S.E.0.155) and school-age children (e.g. 5–10 year old I.R. = 0.239, S.E. 0.041) were the most at-risk for acquiring infection. These findings have the potential to aid the targeting of future mitigation strategies. Conclusion: ABMs provide an alternative way of thinking about HAT and NTDs more generally, offering a solution to the investigation of local-scale questions, and which generate results that can be easily disseminated to those affected. The ABM can be used as a tool for scenario testing at an appropriate spatial scale to allow the design of logistically feasible mitigation strategies suggested by model output. This is of particular importance where resources are limited and management strategies are often pushed to the local scale. © 2016 Alderton et al

Pyrethroid treatment of cattle for tsetse control: Reducing its impact on dung fauna

Background: African trypansomiases of humans and animals can be controlled by attacking the vectors,various species of tsetse fly. Treatment of cattle with pyrethroids to kill tsetse as they feed is the most cost-effective method. However, such treatments can contaminate cattle dung, thereby killing the fauna which disperse the dung and so play an important role in soil fertility. Hence there is a need to identify cost-effective methods of treating cattle with minimal impact on dung fauna. Methodology/Principal Findings: We used dung beetles to field bioassay the levels of dung contamination following the use of spray and pour-on formulations of deltamethrin, applied to various parts of the body of cattle in Zimbabwe. Results suggested that dung was contaminated by contact with insecticide on the body surface as the cattle defecated, and by ingestion of insecticide as the cattle licked themselves. Death of dung beetles was reduced to negligible levels by using only the spray and applying it to the legs and belly or legs alone, i.e., places where most tsetse feed. Conclusion/Significance: The restricted applications suitable for minimising the impact on dung fauna have the collateral benefits of improving the economy and convenience of cattle treatments for tsetse control. The demonstration of collateral benefits is one of the surest ways of promoting environmentally friendly procedures

Improving the cost-effectiveness of visual devices for the control of Riverine tsetse flies, the major vectors of Human African Trypanosomiasis

Control of the Riverine (Palpalis) group of tsetse flies is normally achieved with stationary artificial devices such as traps or insecticide-treated targets. The efficiency of biconical traps (the standard control device), 161 m black targets and small 25625 cm targets with flanking nets was compared using electrocuting sampling methods. The work was done on Glossina tachinoides and G. palpalis gambiensis (Burkina Faso), G. fuscipes quanzensis (Democratic Republic of Congo), G. f. martinii (Tanzania) and G. f. fuscipes (Kenya). The killing effectiveness (measured as the catch per m2 of cloth) for small targets plus flanking nets is 5.5–15X greater than for 1 m2 targets and 8.6–37.5X greater than for biconical traps. This has important implications for the costs of control of the Riverine group of tsetse vectors of sleeping sickness