Prediction of Dengue Incidence Using Search Query Surveillance

Improvements in surveillance, prediction of outbreaks and the monitoring of the epidemiology of dengue virus in countries with underdeveloped surveillance systems are of great importance to ministries of health and other public health decision makers who are often constrained by budget or man-power. Google Flu Trends has proven successful in providing an early warning system for outbreaks of influenza weeks before case data are reported. We believe that there is greater potential for this technique for dengue, as the incidence of this pathogen can vary by a factor of ten in some settings, making prediction all the more important in public health planning. In this paper, we demonstrate the utility of Google search terms in predicting dengue incidence in Singapore and Bangkok, Thailand using several regression techniques. Incidence data were provided by the Singapore Ministry of Health and the Thailand Bureau of Epidemiology. We find our models predict incident cases well (correlation greater than 0.8) and periods of high incidence equally well (AUC greater than 0.95). All data and analysis code used in our study are available free online and can be adapted to other settings

Utilizing general human movement models to predict the spread of emerging infectious diseases in resource poor settings.

Human mobility is an important driver of geographic spread of infectious pathogens. Detailed information about human movements during outbreaks are, however, difficult to obtain and may not be available during future epidemics. The Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in West Africa between 2014-16 demonstrated how quickly pathogens can spread to large urban centers following one cross-species transmission event. Here we describe a flexible transmission model to test the utility of generalised human movement models in estimating EVD cases and spatial spread over the course of the outbreak. A transmission model that includes a general model of human mobility significantly improves prediction of EVD's incidence compared to models without this component. Human movement plays an important role not only to ignite the epidemic in locations previously disease free, but over the course of the entire epidemic. We also demonstrate important differences between countries in population mixing and the improved prediction attributable to movement metrics. Given their relative rareness, locally derived mobility data are unlikely to exist in advance of future epidemics or pandemics. Our findings show that transmission patterns derived from general human movement models can improve forecasts of spatio-temporal transmission patterns in places where local mobility data is unavailable

Mercury Spikes Indicate a Volcanic Trigger for the Late Ordovician Mass Extinction Event: An Example from a Deep Shelf of the Peri-Baltic Region.

The Late Ordovician mass extinction (LOME) was the second largest Phanerozoic crisis, but its cause remains elusive. Several triggering mechanisms have been proposed over the years, including bioevolutionary events, oceanographic changes, and geotectonic processes. Here, we report the presence of Hg spikes in the Zbrza PIG-1 borehole from the Upper Ordovician deep shelf sections of the peri-Baltic region. A strong positive anomaly in the lower late Katian (Hg/TOC = 2537.3 ppb/wt%) was noted. No correlation between Hg and TOC (R² = 0.07) was distinguished in the Hirnantian, although several positive anomalies were found. Because the Hg/Mo ratio showed trends very similar to those of Hg/TOC, it seems likely that TOC values reflect the redox conditions. In order to evaluate the role of anoxia in levels of Hg enrichment several redox indicators were measured. These showed that the elevated mercury values in the Hirnantian are not caused by anoxia/euxinia because euxinic biomarkers (maleimides and aryl isoprenoids) are present in very low abundance and pyrite framboids are absent. In total, positive Hg/TOC anomalies occur in the lower late Katian, at the Katian - Hirnantian boundary, and in the late Hirnantian. The lack of a strong Hg/TOC correlation, Ni enrichments, and the absence of 'anoxic indicators' (no biomarkers, no framboids, low Mo concentration) at these levels, supports the interpretation that Hg enrichment is due to enhanced environmental loading. We conclude that our Hg and Hg/TOC values were associated with volcanic pulses which triggered the massive environmental changes resulting in the Late Ordovician mass extinction

Human and murine APOBEC3s restrict replication of koala retrovirus by different mechanisms

Background: Koala retrovirus (KoRV) is an endogenous and exogenous retrovirus of koalas that may cause lymphoma. As for many other gammaretroviruses, the KoRV genome can potentially encode an alternate form of Gag protein, glyco-gag. Results: In this study, a convenient assay for assessing KoRV infectivity in vitro was employed: the use of DERSE cells (initially developed to search for infectious xenotropic murine leukemia-like viruses). Using infection of DERSE and other human cell lines (HEK293T), no evidence for expression of glyco-gag by KoRV was found, either in expression of glyco-gag protein or changes in infectivity when the putative glyco-gag reading frame was mutated. Since glyco-gag mediates resistance of Moloney murine leukemia virus to the restriction factor APOBEC3, the sensitivity of KoRV (wt or putatively mutant for glyco-gag) to restriction by murine (mA3) or human APOBEC3s was investigated. Both mA3 and hA3G potently inhibited KoRV infectivity. Interestingly, hA3G restriction was accompanied by extensive G → A hypermutation during reverse transcription while mA3 restriction was not. Glyco-gag status did not affect the results. Conclusions: These results indicate that the mechanisms of APOBEC3 restriction of KoRV by hA3G and mA3 differ (deamination dependent vs. independent) and glyco-gag does not play a role in the restriction