The Moldovan Confederation Conundrum

The Gagauz leadership has advanced several basic demands. The first category of demands relates to economic concerns and these appear to be the most fundamental. The situation that they insist be addressed in that there is an economic disparity between Gagauzia and the rest of the Moldovan Republic. If one looks beyond the rhetoric of Comrat, Gagauz political demands are secondary to the economic ones. They demand political parties that would operate in local elections. They want more seats in the Moldovan Parliament and believe that all laws should be published in the Gagauz language as well as in Russian and Romanian. While much has been said about Turkish involvement with Gagauzia, this has not served to generate any feeling among the Gaguz that their cultural roots are in Turkey. Those who emigrate are most likely to go, first, to the United States and, second, to Russia. Ties between Gagauzia and Transdniestria reached their closest during the early part of the 1990s. Since that time Gagauzia has found a more effective relationship working within the Moldovan Republic. The confrontations of recent months are a product of the Moldovan political crisis, not intervention from Tiraspol. They have led to a renewal of ties between these two regions. Transdniestria’s fundamental demand is to assume equal status with the Moldovan Republic within a confederation. There appear to be limited prospects for a renewal of violence such as that seen in 1992. Direct foreign intervention by any one of the three nations with the greatest interests in this situation – Russia, the Ukraine, and Romania – appears unlikely barring a renewal of violence

Montenegro: Vassal or Sovereign?

The authors conclude that Montenegro could be the key for Balkan peace. Relieved of its Yugoslav appendix, Serbia might finally focus inward on the pressing economic problems and opt for democratization and cooperation with the international community. However, it might also be that Montenegro is a trigger for a new protracted civil war, a new Vietnam, which will immerse the future of Balkan people in uncertainty

Islam in the North Caucasus: A People Divided

Religious diversity has had a dramatic impact on the development of the North Caucasus region. People do not indentify primarily with either a national or international Islamic community. The fundamentalist Vakhabite community has become a major regional force during the past decade in spite of numerous efforts to suppress its influence. Official suppression of the Vakhabites has resulted in the emergence of a clandestine Vakhabite network supported from abroad. Islamic radicals throughout the regions (mostly Saudi and North African Arabs) have joined with the Khattab group in order to receive military training in camps which are operated to support Arab terrorists. Khattab was born in Saudi Arabia. The Chechen diaspora that has placed a major supporting role in the modern Middle East, especially in the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan, is returning its children to Chechnya. And now, the return of Chechen Jordanians such as Shamil Bassayev and Ipak Fath has helped to radicalize many young Chechens who became active combatants in the Chechen wars. Money, armaments, and soldiers (mujahideen) provided by radical Islamic groups from abroad have played a major role in strengthening the Chechen resistance movement. After the First Chechen war (1994-1996), religious differences between the Sufi movements and the Vakhabite movement began to have a deleterious political impact in the region. While Sufi Muslims called for creation of a secular state that would preserve traditional social patterns, the Vakhabites have demanded a purification of Islam and eradication of local customs that have tainted and undermined pure Islam

Religious Brotherhoods in Chechnya

Sufism is one of the most important religious movements in Chechnya. It is significant because it is a popular rallying point and, to the external world, it is not obvious who is or is not a member of these clandestine brotherhoods. Sufism gives its adherents an organizational basis that is somewhat like that of the early communist party. There are twenty-seven religious movements operating in Chechnya today. Kunta Hadji is one of the most important of these and is associated with the Qadiriya brotherhood, generally regarded as the second most important of the Soviet-era brotherhoods. Following the first Chechen war, much of Chechen society was mobilized by Vakhabism. The Kunta-Hadjists, whose values were declared heretical by the Vakhabits, found themselves in competition and sometime combat with this more militant and anti-Russian group. The Kunta-Hadjists support the restoration of the Shari’s Islamic laws have criticized president A.Maskhadov for his ambiguous stand towards the issue of Vakhabism

The Stability of the Dniester Moldovan Republic: A Post-Election Analysis

The communists\u27 electoral victory and the elevation of Voronin to the Presidency drew Moldova closer to the Russian Federation and raised new questions about the stability of the Dniester Moldovan Republic. The existence of the DMR no longer serves Russian interests as it did in the past. The prospects for confrontation between the DMR and Moldova are greater today as a result of the Communist Party victory. While President Voronin has privately expressed his disdain for the DMR leadership, he seems willing to accept the existence of the DMR. By the latter part of the past decade, the DMR existed primarily as a vehicle for criminal activities rather than as a bastion of Stalinism and Russian nationalism. Weapons left behind by Soviet forces have made the DMR a major factor in illegal arms trafficking

Islam in the North Caucasus: A People Divided

Religious diversity has had a dramatic impact on the development of the North Caucasus region. People do not identify primarily with either a national or international Islamic community. This paper examins religious issues in the Caucases (Dagestan, Chechnya, Ingushetia, Northern Ossetia, Kabardin-Balkaria, Karachayevo-Cherkessia, and Adygeiya), with special emphasis on the Chechen conflict

Religious Brotherhoods in Chechnya

In 1997, Professors Stephen R. Bowers and Marion T. Doss, Jr., began an effort to promote the systematic study of the problems of political violence and eventually opened an office in the Former Soviet Union to develop research on this topic. Their operating philosophy governing was that such a base would enable them to involve local scholars in research, thus producing internationally based studies that would reflect both the U.S. and the non-U.S. perspectives. This document is the first produced by this method and is a study of the Chechen Sufi brotherhoods in Chechnya and their role in that conflict

Montenegro: Vassal or Sovereign?

A move toward Montenegrin independence would cause Serbian public opinion to focus inward and would likely be the first step in the process towards true democratic evolution. Russia is not likely to support Montenegrin independence and Russia is unlikely to take decisive action to save the Yugoslav Federation. The removal of Slobodan Milosevic from power will have a modest impact on the prospects for maintaining independence