Kahler Moduli Inflation Revisited

We perform a detailed numerical analysis of inflationary solutions in Kahler moduli of type IIB flux compactifications. We show that there are inflationary solutions even when all the fields play an important role in the overall shape of the scalar potential. Moreover, there exists a direction of attraction for the inflationary trajectories that correspond to the constant volume direction. This basin of attraction enables the system to have an island of stability in the set of initial conditions. We provide explicit examples of these trajectories, compute the corresponding tilt of the density perturbations power spectrum and show that they provide a robust prediction of n_s approximately 0.96 for 60 e-folds of inflation.Comment: 27 pages, 9 figure

Hospital Mental Health Admissions in Women after Unsuccessful Infertility Treatment and In Vitro Fertilization: An Australian Population-Based Cohort Study

Objective - To examine the association between in vitro fertilization (IVF) and later admission to hospital with a mental health diagnosis in women who remained childless after infertility treatment. Methods - This was a population-based cohort study using linked administrative hospital and registry data. The study population included all women commencing hospital treatment for infertility in Western Australia between the years 1982 and 2002 aged 20–44 years at treatment commencement who did not have a recorded birth by the end of follow-up (15 August 2010) and did not have a hospital mental health admission prior to the first infertility admission (n=6,567). Of these, 2,623 women had IVF and 3,944 did not. We used multivariate Cox regression modeling of mental health admissions and compared women undergoing IVF treatment with women having infertility treatment but not IVF. Results - Over an average of 17 years of follow-up, 411 women in the cohort were admitted to hospital with a mental health diagnosis; 93 who had IVF and 318 who did not. The unadjusted hazard ratio (HR) for a hospital mental health admission comparing women who had IVF with those receiving other infertility treatment was 0.50 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.40–0.63). After adjustment for age, calendar year and socio-economic status the HR was 0.56 (95% CI 0.44–0.71). Conclusions - IVF treatment is associated with a reduced risk of hospital mental health admissions in women after unsuccessful infertility treatment. This may be explained by the healthy cohort effect

Modelling the effects of boundary walls on the fire dynamics of informal settlement dwellings

AbstractCharacterising the risk of the fire spread in informal settlements relies on the ability to understand compartment fires with boundary conditions that are significantly different to normal residential compartments. Informal settlement dwellings frequently have thermally thin and leaky boundaries. Due to the unique design of these compartments, detailed experimental studies were conducted to understand their fire dynamics. This paper presents the ability of FDS to model these under-ventilated steel sheeted fire tests. Four compartment fire tests were modelled with different wall boundary conditions, namely sealed walls (no leakage), non-sealed walls (leaky), leaky walls with cardboard lining, and highly insulated walls; with wood cribs as fuel and ISO-9705 room dimensions. FDS managed to capture the main fire dynamics and trends both qualitatively and quantitatively. However, using a cell size of 6 cm, the ability of FDS to accurately model the combustion at locations with high turbulent flows (using the infinitely fast chemistry mixing controlled combustion model), and the effect of leakage, was relatively poor and both factors should be further studied with finer LES filter width. Using the validated FDS models, new flashover criteria for thermally thin compartments were defined as a combination of critical hot gas layer and wall temperatures. Additionally, a parametric study was conducted to propose an empirical correlation to estimate the onset Heat Release Rate required for flashover, as current knowledge fails to account properly for large scale compartments with thermally thin boundaries. The empirical correlation is demonstrated to have an accuracy of ≈ ± 10% compared with the FDS models

Combining qualitative and quantitative understanding for exploring cross-sectoral climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability in Europe

Climate change will affect all sectors of society and the environment at all scales, ranging from the continental to the national and local. Decision-makers and other interested citizens need to be able to access reliable science-based information to help them respond to the risks of climate change impacts and assess opportunities for adaptation. Participatory integrated assessment (IA) tools combine knowledge from diverse scientific disciplines, take account of the value and importance of stakeholder ‘lay insight’ and facilitate a two-way iterative process of exploration of ‘what if’s’ to enable decision-makers to test ideas and improve their understanding of the complex issues surrounding adaptation to climate change. This paper describes the conceptual design of a participatory IA tool, the CLIMSAVE IA Platform, based on a professionally facilitated stakeholder engagement process. The CLIMSAVE (climate change integrated methodology for cross-sectoral adaptation and vulnerability in Europe) Platform is a user-friendly, interactive web-based tool that allows stakeholders to assess climate change impacts and vulnerabilities for a range of sectors, including agriculture, forests, biodiversity, coasts, water resources and urban development. The linking of models for the different sectors enables stakeholders to see how their interactions could affect European landscape change. The relationship between choice, uncertainty and constraints is a key cross-cutting theme in the conduct of past participatory IA. Integrating scenario development processes with an interactive modelling platform is shown to allow the exploration of future uncertainty as a structural feature of such complex problems, encouraging stakeholders to explore adaptation choices within real-world constraints of future resource availability and environmental and institutional capacities, rather than seeking the ‘right’ answers

Retrospective harm benefit analysis of pre-clinical animal research for six treatment interventions

The harm benefit analysis (HBA) is the cornerstone of animal research regulation and is considered to be a key ethical safeguard for animals. The HBA involves weighing the anticipated benefits of animal research against its predicted harms to animals but there are doubts about how objective and accountable this process is.i. To explore the harms to animals involved in pre-clinical animal studies and to assess these against the benefits for humans accruing from these studies; ii. To test the feasibility of conducting this type of retrospective HBA.Data on harms were systematically extracted from a sample of pre-clinical animal studies whose clinical relevance had already been investigated by comparing systematic reviews of the animal studies with systematic reviews of human studies for the same interventions (antifibrinolytics for haemorrhage, bisphosphonates for osteoporosis, corticosteroids for brain injury, Tirilazad for stroke, antenatal corticosteroids for neonatal respiratory distress and thrombolytics for stroke). Clinical relevance was also explored in terms of current clinical practice. Harms were categorised for severity using an expert panel. The quality of the research and its impact were considered. Bateson's Cube was used to conduct the HBA.The most common assessment of animal harms by the expert panel was 'severe'. Reported use of analgesia was rare and some animals (including most neonates) endured significant procedures with no, or only light, anaesthesia reported. Some animals suffered iatrogenic harms. Many were kept alive for long periods post-experimentally but only 1% of studies reported post-operative care. A third of studies reported that some animals died prior to endpoints. All the studies were of poor quality. Having weighed the actual harms to animals against the actual clinical benefits accruing from these studies, and taking into account the quality of the research and its impact, less than 7% of the studies were permissible according to Bateson's Cube: only the moderate bisphosphonate studies appeared to minimise harms to animals whilst being associated with benefit for humans.This is the first time the accountability of the HBA has been systematically explored across a range of pre-clinical animal studies. The regulatory systems in place when these studies were conducted failed to safeguard animals from severe suffering or to ensure that only beneficial, scientifically rigorous research was conducted. Our findings indicate a pressing need to: i. review regulations, particularly those that permit animals to suffer severe harms; ii. reform the processes of prospectively assessing pre-clinical animal studies to make them fit for purpose; and iii. systematically evaluate the benefits of pre-clinical animal research to permit a more realistic assessment of its likely future benefits

In vitro calibration of a system for measurement of in vivo convective heat transfer coefficient in animals

BACKGROUND: We need a sensor to measure the convective heat transfer coefficient during ablation of the heart or liver. METHODS: We built a minimally invasive instrument to measure the in vivo convective heat transfer coefficient, h in animals, using a Wheatstone-bridge circuit, similar to a hot-wire anemometer circuit. One arm is connected to a steerable catheter sensor whose tip is a 1.9 mm × 3.2 mm thin film resistive temperature detector (RTD) sensor. We used a circulation system to simulate different flow rates at 39°C for in vitro experiments using distilled water, tap water and saline. We heated the sensor approximately 5°C above the fluid temperature. We measured the power consumed by the sensor and the resistance of the sensor during the experiments and analyzed these data to determine the value of the convective heat transfer coefficient at various flow rates. RESULTS: From 0 to 5 L/min, experimental values of h in W/(m(2)·K) were for distilled water 5100 to 13000, for tap water 5500 to 12300, and for saline 5400 to 13600. Theoretical values were 1900 to 10700. CONCLUSION: We believe this system is the smallest, most accurate method of minimally invasive measurement of in vivo h in animals and provides the least disturbance of flow

Self-reported diabetes is associated with self-management behaviour: a cohort study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The purposes of this cohort study were to establish how frequently people with physician-diagnosed diabetes self-reported the disease, to determine factors associated with self-reporting of diabetes, and to evaluate subsequent differences in self-management behaviour, health care utilisation and clinical outcomes between people who do and do not report their disease.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We used a registry of physician-diagnosed diabetes as a reference standard. We studied respondents to a 2000/01 population-based health survey who were in the registry (n = 1,812), and we determined the proportion who reported having diabetes during the survey. Baseline factors associated with self-report and subsequent behavioural, utilisation and clinical differences between those who did and did not self-report were defined from the survey responses and from linkage with administrative data sources.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Only 75% of people with physician-diagnosed diabetes reported having the disease. People who did self-report were more likely to be male, to live in rural areas, to have longer disease duration and to have received specialist physician care. People who did not report having diabetes in the survey were markedly less likely to perform capillary blood glucose monitoring in the subsequent two years (OR 0.05, 95% CI 0.02 to 0.08). They were also less likely to receive specialist physician care (OR 0.55, 95% CI 0.37 to 0.86), and were less likely to require hospital care for hypo- or hyperglycaemia (OR 0.09, 95% CI 0.01 to 0.28).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Many people with physician-diagnosed diabetes do not report having the disease, but most demographic and clinical features do not distinguish these individuals. These individuals are much less likely to perform capillary glucose monitoring, suggesting that their diabetes self-management is inadequate. Clinicians may be able to use the absence of glucose monitoring as a screening tool to identify people needing a detailed evaluation of their disease knowledge.</p

Health promotion programs related to the Athens 2004 Olympic and Para Olympic games

BACKGROUND: The Olympic Games constitute a first-class opportunity to promote athleticism and health messages. Little is known, however on the impact of Olympic Games on the development of health-promotion programs for the general population. Our objective was to identify and describe the population-based health-promotion programs implemented in relation to the Athens 2004 Olympic and Para Olympic Games. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey of all stakeholders of the Games, including the Athens 2004 Organizing Committee, all ministries of the Greek government, the National School of Public Health, all municipalities hosting Olympic events and all official private sponsors of the Games, was conducted after the conclusion of the Games. RESULTS: A total of 44 agencies were surveyed, 40 responded (91%), and ten (10) health-promotion programs were identified. Two programs were implemented by the Athens 2004 Organizing Committee, 2 from the Greek ministries, 2 from the National School of Public Health, 1 from municipalities, and 3 from official private sponsors of the Games. The total cost of the programs was estimated at 943,000 Euros; a relatively small fraction (0.08%) of the overall cost of the Games. CONCLUSION: Greece has made a small, however, significant step forward, on health promotion, in the context of the Olympic Games. The International Olympic Committee and the future hosting countries, including China, are encouraged to elaborate on this idea and offer the world a promising future for public health