Modeling the impact of prevention policies on future diabetes prevalence in the United States: 2010-2030

Background Although diabetes is one of the most costly and rapidly increasing serious chronic diseases worldwide, the optimal mix of strategies to reduce diabetes prevalence has not been determined. Methods Using a dynamic model that incorporates national data on diabetes prevalence and incidence, migration, mortality rates, and intervention effectiveness, we project the effect of five hypothetical prevention policies on future US diabetes rates through 2030: 1) no diabetes prevention strategy; 2) a “high-risk” strategy, wherein adults with both impaired fasting glucose (IFG) (fasting plasma glucose of 100–124 mg/dl) and impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) (2-hour post-load glucose of 141–199 mg/dl) receive structured lifestyle intervention; 3) a “moderate-risk” strategy, wherein only adults with IFG are offered structured lifestyle intervention; 4) a “population-wide” strategy, in which the entire population is exposed to broad risk reduction policies; and 5) a “combined” strategy, involving both the moderate-risk and population-wide strategies. We assumed that the moderate- and high-risk strategies reduce the annual diabetes incidence rate in the targeted subpopulations by 12.5% through 2030 and that the population-wide approach would reduce the projected annual diabetes incidence rate by 2% in the entire US population. Results We project that by the year 2030, the combined strategy would prevent 4.6 million incident cases and 3.6 million prevalent cases, attenuating the increase in diabetes prevalence by 14%. The moderate-risk approach is projected to prevent 4.0 million incident cases, 3.1 million prevalent cases, attenuating the increase in prevalence by 12%. The high-risk and population approaches attenuate the projected prevalence increases by 5% and 3%, respectively. Even if the most effective strategy is implemented (the combined strategy), our projections indicate that the diabetes prevalence rate would increase by about 65% over the 23 years (i.e., from 12.9% in 2010 to 21.3% in 2030). Conclusions While implementation of appropriate diabetes prevention strategies may slow the rate of increase of the prevalence of diabetes among US adults through 2030, the US diabetes prevalence rate is likely to increase dramatically over the next 20 years. Demand for health care services for people with diabetes complications and diabetes-related disability will continue to grow, and these services will need to be strengthened along with primary diabetes prevention efforts

Projection of the year 2050 burden of diabetes in the US adult population: dynamic modeling of incidence, mortality, and prediabetes prevalence

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>People with diabetes can suffer from diverse complications that seriously erode quality of life. Diabetes, costing the United States more than $174 billion per year in 2007, is expected to take an increasingly large financial toll in subsequent years. Accurate projections of diabetes burden are essential to policymakers planning for future health care needs and costs.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Using data on prediabetes and diabetes prevalence in the United States, forecasted incidence, and current US Census projections of mortality and migration, the authors constructed a series of dynamic models employing systems of difference equations to project the future burden of diabetes among US adults. A three-state model partitions the US population into no diabetes, undiagnosed diabetes, and diagnosed diabetes. A four-state model divides the state of "no diabetes" into high-risk (prediabetes) and low-risk (normal glucose) states. A five-state model incorporates an intervention designed to prevent or delay diabetes in adults at high risk.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The authors project that annual diagnosed diabetes incidence (new cases) will increase from about 8 cases per 1,000 in 2008 to about 15 in 2050. Assuming low incidence and relatively high diabetes mortality, total diabetes prevalence (diagnosed and undiagnosed cases) is projected to increase from 14% in 2010 to 21% of the US adult population by 2050. However, if recent increases in diabetes incidence continue and diabetes mortality is relatively low, prevalence will increase to 33% by 2050. A middle-ground scenario projects a prevalence of 25% to 28% by 2050. Intervention can reduce, but not eliminate, increases in diabetes prevalence.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>These projected increases are largely attributable to the aging of the US population, increasing numbers of members of higher-risk minority groups in the population, and people with diabetes living longer. Effective strategies will need to be undertaken to moderate the impact of these factors on national diabetes burden. Our analysis suggests that widespread implementation of reasonably effective preventive interventions focused on high-risk subgroups of the population can considerably reduce, but not eliminate, future increases in diabetes prevalence.</p

Type 2 diabetes, socioeconomic status and life expectancy in Scotland (2012-2014):a population-based observational study

Aims/hypothesis: The aim of this study was to assess the role of socioeconomic status (SES) in the associations between type 2 diabetes and life expectancy in a complete national population. Methods: An observational population-based cohort study was performed using the Scottish Care Information – Diabetes database. Age-specific life expectancy (stratified by SES) was calculated for all individuals with type 2 diabetes in the age range 40–89 during the period 2012–2014, and for the remaining population of Scotland aged 40–89 without type 2 diabetes. Differences in life expectancy between the two groups were calculated. Results: Results were based on 272,597 individuals with type 2 diabetes and 2.75 million people without type 2 diabetes (total for 2013, the middle calendar year of the study period). With the exception of deprived men aged 80–89, life expectancy in people with type 2 diabetes was significantly reduced (relative to the type 2 diabetes-free population) at all ages and levels of SES. Differences in life expectancy ranged from −5.5 years (95% CI −6.2, −4.8) for women aged 40–44 in the second most-deprived quintile of SES, to 0.1 years (95% CI −0.2, 0.4) for men aged 85–89 in the most-deprived quintile of SES. Observed life-expectancy deficits in those with type 2 diabetes were generally greater in women than in men. Conclusions/interpretation: Type 2 diabetes is associated with reduced life expectancy at almost all ages and levels of SES. Elimination of life-expectancy deficits in individuals with type 2 diabetes will require prevention and management strategies targeted at all social strata (not just deprived groups)

Internal Wave Turbulence Near a Texel Beach

A summer bather entering a calm sea from the beach may sense alternating warm and cold water. This can be felt when moving forward into the sea (‘vertically homogeneous’ and ‘horizontally different’), but also when standing still between one’s feet and body (‘vertically different’). On a calm summer-day, an array of high-precision sensors has measured fast temperature-changes up to 1°C near a Texel-island (NL) beach. The measurements show that sensed variations are in fact internal waves, fronts and turbulence, supported in part by vertical stable stratification in density (temperature). Such motions are common in the deep ocean, but generally not in shallow seas where turbulent mixing is expected strong enough to homogenize. The internal beach-waves have amplitudes ten-times larger than those of the small surface wind waves. Quantifying their turbulent mixing gives diffusivity estimates of 10−4–10−3 m2 s−1, which are larger than found in open-ocean but smaller than wave breaking above deep sloping topography

Identification and validation of suitable endogenous reference genes for gene expression studies in human peripheral blood

Background Gene expression studies require appropriate normalization methods. One such method uses stably expressed reference genes. Since suitable reference genes appear to be unique for each tissue, we have identified an optimal set of the most stably expressed genes in human blood that can be used for normalization. Methods Whole-genome Affymetrix Human 2.0 Plus arrays were examined from 526 samples of males and females ages 2 to 78, including control subjects and patients with Tourette syndrome, stroke, migraine, muscular dystrophy, and autism. The top 100 most stably expressed genes with a broad range of expression levels were identified. To validate the best candidate genes, we performed quantitative RT-PCR on a subset of 10 genes (TRAP1, DECR1, FPGS, FARP1, MAPRE2, PEX16, GINS2, CRY2, CSNK1G2 and A4GALT), 4 commonly employed reference genes (GAPDH, ACTB, B2M and HMBS) and PPIB, previously reported to be stably expressed in blood. Expression stability and ranking analysis were performed using GeNorm and NormFinder algorithms. Results Reference genes were ranked based on their expression stability and the minimum number of genes needed for nomalization as calculated using GeNorm showed that the fewest, most stably expressed genes needed for acurate normalization in RNA expression studies of human whole blood is a combination of TRAP1, FPGS, DECR1 and PPIB. We confirmed the ranking of the best candidate control genes by using an alternative algorithm (NormFinder). Conclusion The reference genes identified in this study are stably expressed in whole blood of humans of both genders with multiple disease conditions and ages 2 to 78. Importantly, they also have different functions within cells and thus should be expressed independently of each other. These genes should be useful as normalization genes for microarray and RT-PCR whole blood studies of human physiology, metabolism and disease.Boryana S Stamova, Michelle Apperson, Wynn L Walker, Yingfang Tian, Huichun Xu, Peter Adamczy, Xinhua Zhan, Da-Zhi Liu, Bradley P Ander, Isaac H Liao, Jeffrey P Gregg, Renee J Turner, Glen Jickling, Lisa Lit and Frank R Shar

Importance of salt fingering for new nitrogen supply in the oligotrophic ocean.

The input of new nitrogen into the euphotic zone constrains the export of organic carbon to the deep ocean and thereby the biologically mediated long-term CO2 exchange between the ocean and atmosphere. In low-latitude open-ocean regions, turbulence-driven nitrate diffusion from the ocean’s interior and biological fixation of atmospheric N2 are the main sources of new nitrogen for phytoplankton productivity. With measurements across the tropical and subtropical Atlantic, Pacific and Indian oceans, we show that nitrate diffusion (171±190 mmolm 2 d 1) dominates over N2 fixation (9.0±9.4 mmolm 2 d 1) at the time of sampling. Nitrate diffusion mediated by salt fingers is responsible for ca. 20% of the new nitrogen supply in several provinces of the Atlantic and Indian Oceans. Our results indicate that salt finger diffusion should be considered in present and future ocean nitrogen budgets, as it could supply globally 0.23–1.00 TmolNyr 1 to the euphotic zone.MALASPINA (CSD2008-00077)Versión del editor10,015

Duplex ventral pancreas

Complete duplication of the ventral pancreatic ductal system in 2 patients is reported. Both patients, during evaluation for recurrent abdominal pain, underwent endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography that revealed typical changes of chronic pancreatitis and pseudocysts confined to 1 ductal system with the other ductal system completely normal. Both ductal systems filled with contrast medium via a common opening at the major papilla. A rudimentary minor papilla was present, but cannulations were unsuccessful. This unusual anomaly of the ventral pancreas with its embryologic basis, diagnosis, and clinical implications is discussed.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/48132/1/261_2005_Article_BF01885095.pd