Financial ``Anti-Bubbles'': Log-Periodicity in Gold and Nikkei collapses

We propose that imitation between traders and their herding behaviour not only lead to speculative bubbles with accelerating over-valuations of financial markets possibly followed by crashes, but also to ``anti-bubbles'' with decelerating market devaluations following all-time highs. For this, we propose a simple market dynamics model in which the demand decreases slowly with barriers that progressively quench in, leading to a power law decay of the market price decorated by decelerating log-periodic oscillations. We document this behaviour on the Japanese Nikkei stock index from 1990 to present and on the Gold future prices after 1980, both after their all-time highs. We perform simultaneously a parametric and non-parametric analysis that are fully consistent with each other. We extend the parametric approach to the next order of perturbation, comparing the log-periodic fits with one, two and three log-frequencies, the latter one providing a prediction for the general trend in the coming years. The non-parametric power spectrum analysis shows the existence of log-periodicity with high statistical significance, with a prefered scale ratio of $\lambda \approx 3.5$ for the Nikkei index $\lambda \approx 1.9$ for the Gold future prices, comparable to the values obtained for speculative bubbles leading to crashes.Comment: 14 pages with 4 figure

Nonparametric identification of linearizations and uncertainty using Gaussian process models – application to robust wheel slip control

Gaussian process prior models offer a nonparametric approach to modelling unknown nonlinear systems from experimental data. These are flexible models which automatically adapt their model complexity to the available data, and which give not only mean predictions but also the variance of these predictions. A further advantage is the analytical derivation of derivatives of the model with respect to inputs, with their variance, providing a direct estimate of the locally linearized model with its corresponding parameter variance. We show how this can be used to tune a controller based on the linearized models, taking into account their uncertainty. The approach is applied to a simulated wheel slip control task illustrating controller development based on a nonparametric model of the unknown friction nonlinearity. Local stability and robustness of the controllers are tuned based on the uncertainty of the nonlinear models’ derivatives

Stochastics theory of log-periodic patterns

We introduce an analytical model based on birth-death clustering processes to help understanding the empirical log-periodic corrections to power-law scaling and the finite-time singularity as reported in several domains including rupture, earthquakes, world population and financial systems. In our stochastics theory log-periodicities are a consequence of transient clusters induced by an entropy-like term that may reflect the amount of cooperative information carried by the state of a large system of different species. The clustering completion rates for the system are assumed to be given by a simple linear death process. The singularity at t_{o} is derived in terms of birth-death clustering coefficients.Comment: LaTeX, 1 ps figure - To appear J. Phys. A: Math & Ge

Current State of the Electrodynamic Dust Shield for Mitigation

The Electrodynamic Dust Shield (EDS) has been developed as a means to lift, transport and remove dust from surfaces for over 18 years in the Electrostatics and Surface Physics Laboratory at NASA Kennedy Space Center. Resent advances in the technology have allowed large-scale EDSs to be fabricated using roll-to-roll techniques for quick efficient processing. The aim of the current research is to demonstrate the 3-dimensional (3-D) version of the EDS and its applicability to various surfaces of interest throughout the Artemis program that require dust mitigation. The conventional two dimensional (2-D) EDS has been comprised of interdigitated electrodes across a surface of alternating polarity to setup non-uniform electric fields in the location of interest for which the particles need to be removed. The 2-D system can be designed to accommodate various phases. For example, the two phase EDS is comprised of two electrodes 180 out of phase, while the 3-phase EDS is 120 out of phase with the adjacent leg. 4-phase EDS configurations are also possible but for each square wave a high voltage signal is applied to each leg

Log-periodic route to fractal functions

Log-periodic oscillations have been found to decorate the usual power law behavior found to describe the approach to a critical point, when the continuous scale-invariance symmetry is partially broken into a discrete-scale invariance (DSI) symmetry. We classify the `Weierstrass-type'' solutions of the renormalization group equation F(x)= g(x)+(1/m)F(g x) into two classes characterized by the amplitudes A(n) of the power law series expansion. These two classes are separated by a novel ``critical'' point. Growth processes (DLA), rupture, earthquake and financial crashes seem to be characterized by oscillatory or bounded regular microscopic functions g(x) that lead to a slow power law decay of A(n), giving strong log-periodic amplitudes. In contrast, the regular function g(x) of statistical physics models with ``ferromagnetic''-type interactions at equibrium involves unbound logarithms of polynomials of the control variable that lead to a fast exponential decay of A(n) giving weak log-periodic amplitudes and smoothed observables. These two classes of behavior can be traced back to the existence or abscence of ``antiferromagnetic'' or ``dipolar''-type interactions which, when present, make the Green functions non-monotonous oscillatory and favor spatial modulated patterns.Comment: Latex document of 29 pages + 20 ps figures, addition of a new demonstration of the source of strong log-periodicity and of a justification of the general offered classification, update of reference lis

Mechanism for flux guidance by micrometric antidot arrays in superconducting films

A study of magnetic flux penetration in a superconducting film patterned with arrays of micron sized antidots (microholes) is reported. Magneto-optical imaging (MOI) of a YBCO film shaped as a long strip with perpendicular antidot arrays revealed both strong guidance of flux, and at the same time large perturbations of the overall flux penetration and flow of current. These results are compared with a numerical flux creep simulation of a thin superconductor with the same antidot pattern. To perform calculations on such a complex geometry, an efficient numerical scheme for handling the boundary conditions of the antidots and the nonlocal electrodynamics was developed. The simulations reproduce essentially all features of the MOI results. In addition, the numerical results give insight into all other key quantities, e.g., the electrical field, which becomes extremely large in the narrow channels connecting the antidots.Comment: 8 pages, 7 figure

An analysis of the acoustic cavitation noise spectrum: The role of periodic shock waves

Research on applications of acoustic cavitation is often reported in terms of the features within the spectrum of the emissions gathered during cavitation occurrence. There is, however, limited understanding as to the contribution of specific bubble activity to spectral features, beyond a binary interpretation of stable versus inertial cavitation. In this work, laser-nucleation is used to initiate cavitation within a few millimeters of the tip of a needle hydrophone, calibrated for magnitude and phase from 125 kHz to 20 MHz. The bubble activity, acoustically driven at f0 = 692 kHz, is resolved with high-speed shadowgraphic imaging at 5 × 106 frames per second. A synthetic spectrum is constructed from component signals based on the hydrophone data, deconvolved within the calibration bandwidth, in the time domain. Cross correlation coefficients between the experimental and synthetic spectra of 0.97 for the f 0/2 and f 0/3 regimes indicate that periodic shock waves and scattered driving field predominantly account for all spectral features, including the sub-harmonics and their over-harmonics, and harmonics of f 0

Stock mechanics: predicting recession in S&P500, DJIA, and NASDAQ

An original method, assuming potential and kinetic energy for prices and conservation of their sum is developed for forecasting exchanges. Connections with power law are shown. Semiempirical applications on S&P500, DJIA, and NASDAQ predict a coming recession in them. An emerging market, Istanbul Stock Exchange index ISE-100 is found involving a potential to continue to rise.Comment: 14 pages, 4 figure

The role of antibiotics in the treatment of chronic prostatitis: A consensus statement

Practical guidelines for the diagnosis and treatment of chronic prostatitis are presented. Chronic prostatitis is classified as chronic bacterial prostatitis (culture-positive) and chronic inflammatory prostatitis (culture-negative). If chronic bacterial prostatitis is suspected, based on relevant symptoms or recurrent UTIs, underlying urological conditions should be excluded by the following tests: rectal examination, midstream urine culture and residual urine. The diagnosis should be confirmed by the Meares and Stamey technique. Antibiotic therapy is recommended for acute exacerbations of chronic prostatitis, chronic bacterial prostatitis and chronic inflammatory prostatitis, if there is clinical, bacteriological or supporting immunological evidence of prostate infection. Unless a patient presents with fever, antibiotic treatment should not be initiated immediately except in cases of acute prostatitis or acute episodes in a patient with chronic bacterial prostatitis. The work-up, with the appropriate investigations should be done first, within a reasonable time period which, preferably, should not be longer than 1 week. During this period, nonspecific treatment, such as appropriate analgesia to relieve symptoms, should be given. The minimum duration of antibiotic treatment should be 2-4 weeks. If there is no improvement in symptoms, treatment should be stopped and reconsidered. However, if there is improvement, it should be continued for at least a further 2-4 weeks to achieve clinical cure and, hopefully, eradication of the causative pathogen. Antibiotic treatment should not be given for 6-8 weeks without an appraisal of its effectiveness. Currently used antibiotics are reviewed. Of these, the fluoroquinolones ofloxacin and ciprofloxacin are recommended because of their favourable antibacterial spectrum and pharmacokinetic profile. A number of clinical trials are recommended and a standard study design is proposed to help resolve some outstanding issues

Quantum theory of successive projective measurements

We show that a quantum state may be represented as the sum of a joint probability and a complex quantum modification term. The joint probability and the modification term can both be observed in successive projective measurements. The complex modification term is a measure of measurement disturbance. A selective phase rotation is needed to obtain the imaginary part. This leads to a complex quasiprobability, the Kirkwood distribution. We show that the Kirkwood distribution contains full information about the state if the two observables are maximal and complementary. The Kirkwood distribution gives a new picture of state reduction. In a nonselective measurement, the modification term vanishes. A selective measurement leads to a quantum state as a nonnegative conditional probability. We demonstrate the special significance of the Schwinger basis.Comment: 6 page