The Influence of Meteorology on the Spread of Influenza: Survival Analysis of an Equine Influenza (A/H3N8) Outbreak

The influences of relative humidity and ambient temperature on the transmission of influenza A viruses have recently been established under controlled laboratory conditions. The interplay of meteorological factors during an actual influenza epidemic is less clear, and research into the contribution of wind to epidemic spread is scarce. By applying geostatistics and survival analysis to data from a large outbreak of equine influenza (A/H3N8), we quantified the association between hazard of infection and air temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, and wind velocity, whilst controlling for premises-level covariates. The pattern of disease spread in space and time was described using extraction mapping and instantaneous hazard curves. Meteorological conditions at each premises location were estimated by kriging daily meteorological data and analysed as time-lagged time-varying predictors using generalised Cox regression. Meteorological covariates time-lagged by three days were strongly associated with hazard of influenza infection, corresponding closely with the incubation period of equine influenza. Hazard of equine influenza infection was higher when relative humidity was <60% and lowest on days when daily maximum air temperature was 20–25°C. Wind speeds >30 km hour−1 from the direction of nearby infected premises were associated with increased hazard of infection. Through combining detailed influenza outbreak and meteorological data, we provide empirical evidence for the underlying environmental mechanisms that influenced the local spread of an outbreak of influenza A. Our analysis supports, and extends, the findings of studies into influenza A transmission conducted under laboratory conditions. The relationships described are of direct importance for managing disease risk during influenza outbreaks in horses, and more generally, advance our understanding of the transmission of influenza A viruses under field conditions

Injectable anti-malarials revisited:discovery and development of new agents to protect against malaria

Over the last 15 years, the majority of malaria drug discovery and development efforts have focused on new molecules and regimens to treat patients with uncomplicated or severe disease. In addition, a number of new molecular scaffolds have been discovered which block the replication of the parasite in the liver, offering the possibility of new tools for oral prophylaxis or chemoprotection, potentially with once-weekly dosing. However, an intervention which requires less frequent administration than this would be a key tool for the control and elimination of malaria. Recent progress in HIV drug discovery has shown that small molecules can be formulated for injections as native molecules or pro-drugs which provide protection for at least 2 months. Advances in antibody engineering offer an alternative approach whereby a single injection could potentially provide protection for several months. Building on earlier profiles for uncomplicated and severe malaria, a target product profile is proposed here for an injectable medicine providing long-term protection from this disease. As with all of such profiles, factors such as efficacy, cost, safety and tolerability are key, but with the changing disease landscape in Africa, new clinical and regulatory approaches are required to develop prophylactic/chemoprotective medicines. An overall framework for these approaches is suggested here

A public antibody lineage that potently inhibits malaria infection through dual binding to the circumsporozoite protein.

Immunization with attenuated Plasmodium falciparum sporozoites (PfSPZs) has been shown to be protective against malaria, but the features of the antibody response induced by this treatment remain unclear. To investigate this response in detail, we isolated IgM and IgG monoclonal antibodies from Tanzanian volunteers who were immunized with repeated injection of Sanaria PfSPZ Vaccine and who were found to be protected from controlled human malaria infection with infectious homologous PfSPZs. All isolated IgG monoclonal antibodies bound to P. falciparum circumsporozoite protein (PfCSP) and recognized distinct epitopes in its N terminus, NANP-repeat region, and C terminus. Strikingly, the most effective antibodies, as determined in a humanized mouse model, bound not only to the repeat region, but also to a minimal peptide at the PfCSP N-terminal junction that is not in the RTS,S vaccine. These dual-specific antibodies were isolated from different donors and were encoded by VH3-30 or VH3-33 alleles that encode tryptophan or arginine at position 52. Using structural and mutational data, we describe the elements required for germline recognition and affinity maturation. Our study provides potent neutralizing antibodies and relevant information for lineage-targeted vaccine design and immunization strategies