Predicting ecosystem shifts requires new approaches that integrate the effects of climate change across entire systems.

Most studies that forecast the ecological consequences of climate change target a single species and a single life stage. Depending on climatic impacts on other life stages and on interacting species, however, the results from simple experiments may not translate into accurate predictions of future ecological change. Research needs to move beyond simple experimental studies and environmental envelope projections for single species towards identifying where ecosystem change is likely to occur and the drivers for this change. For this to happen, we advocate research directions that (i) identify the critical species within the target ecosystem, and the life stage(s) most susceptible to changing conditions and (ii) the key interactions between these species and components of their broader ecosystem. A combined approach using macroecology, experimentally derived data and modelling that incorporates energy budgets in life cycle models may identify critical abiotic conditions that disproportionately alter important ecological processes under forecasted climates

Recent climate-driven ecological changes in tropical montane lakes of Rwenzori Mountains National Park, central Africa

Rwenzori Mountains National Park, which straddles the border between the Democratic Republic of Congo and Uganda, has experienced rapid glacier loss since the beginning of the twentieth century, yet there has been little investigation of aquatic biodiversity change in the park. This study presents a paleolimnological analysis from Lake Mahoma (2990 m asl), which is situated in the bamboo-forest transition zone. Diatom and organic geochemistry data from a 39-cm-long sediment core with a basal age of c. 1715 CE were compared with new analyses of previously published data from Lakes Bujuku (3891 m asl) and Lower Kitandara (3989 m asl), in the alpine zone. Comparisons were made to determine if aquatic ecosystem changes exhibited similar inter-lake patterns over the past ~ 150 years of climate warming and glacial recession, or if only local change was apparent. The diatom flora of Lake Mahoma is acidophilous, dominated by Aulacoseira ikapoënsis since at least the mid eighteenth century. In recent decades, the obligate nitrogen-heterotroph Nitzschia palea increased in importance, concurrent with declining δ15Norg values. We suggest that these late twentieth century changes were linked to regional warming and increased thermal stratification of Lake Mahoma. Regional comparisons of the Rwenzori lakes were done using existing organic geochemistry records (total organic carbon, C/N and δ13Corg) and through diatom compositional turnover analyses, and categorisation of species into one of four diatom growth morphology traits, or guilds: tychoplanktonic, high-profile, low-profile and motile. Over the past 150 years, all three lakes showed unidirectional, compositional diatom turnover, indicating that deterministic processes had affected diatom communities. Declining turnover at each site is broadly mirrored by an increase in tychoplanktonic taxa, along with concomitant declines in high-profile diatoms at Lake Mahoma, and low-profile diatoms at Lake Bujuku, and at least for the past 60 years, at Lower Kitandara. The interplay between diatom guilds at all sites is mainly a consequence of competition for available resources. Sediment organic carbon at all sites comes from both autochthonous and allochthonous sources, the relative abundances of which are influenced by the time elapsed since lakes had glaciers in their catchment

Vibration performance of a lightweight FRP footbridge under human dynamic excitation

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Springer via the DOI in this recordFibre-reinforced polymer (FRP) composites are increasingly used as main load bearing materials in design of pedestrian bridges. The FRP footbridges are typically characterised by high strength, and relatively low mass and stiffness. These properties could lead to excessive vibration response under human-induced dynamic loading. This paper studies dynamic performance of a 19.8 m long, simply supported, FRP footbridge exposed to walking and jogging. Moreover, the vibration response of this bridge is compared and critically evaluated against the response of an equivalent, in terms of natural frequency and span length, composite steel-concrete structure. The main factors that drive the vibration performance of the FRP structure are discussed and some recommendations for vibration serviceability checks are made.Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC

Vibration serviceability of a GFRP railway crossing due to pedestrians and train excitation

This is the final version. Available on open access from Elsevier via the DOI in this recordData availability: Electronic format of the data collected in this research can be downloaded freely from the University of Warwick webpages wrap.warwick.ac.uk/136500Glass Fibre-Reinforced Polymers (GFRPs) are a popular option for pedestrian bridges over railway lines as they cause little disruption for installation or maintenance. However, as they are typically lighter and less stiff than traditional materials there is concern about their dynamic response due to human induced actions and train buffeting. Due to a lack of experimental information, further data is needed if such bridges are to be used on future lines, especially with higher speed limits. This paper presents an experimental investigation of the response of a 14.5 m GFRP truss bridge due to pedestrian loading and train induced vibrations. Vibration modes of interest were identified from impact hammer tests. The vibration responses to a range of human loading scenarios, as well as multiple train passes, were measured. The vibration levels remained low under all conditions, demonstrating that this particular type of GFRP bridge is suitable for railway crossings and that further optimisations may be available to designers while meeting vibration serviceability limits. However, consideration of the loadings suggests GFRP bridges may be more susceptible to higher pedestrian harmonics than traditional structures, and that vibrations from train buffeting are likely to be a design consideration for future bridges over high speed lines.Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC

The imprints of AGN feedback within a supermassive black hole's sphere of influence

We present a new 300 ks Chandra observation of M87 that limits pileup to only a few per cent of photon events and maps the hot gas properties closer to the nucleus than has previously been possible. Within the supermassive black hole's gravitational sphere of influence, the hot gas is multiphase and spans temperatures from 0.2 to 1 keV. The radiative cooling time of the lowest temperature gas drops to only 0.1-0.5 Myr, which is comparable to its free fall time. Whilst the temperature structure is remarkably symmetric about the nucleus, the density gradient is steep in sectors to the N and S, with $\rho{\propto}r^{-1.5\pm0.1}$, and significantly shallower along the jet axis to the E, where $\rho{\propto}r^{-0.93\pm0.07}$. The density structure within the Bondi radius is therefore consistent with steady inflows perpendicular to the jet axis and an outflow directed E along the jet axis. By putting limits on the radial flow speed, we rule out Bondi accretion on the scale resolved at the Bondi radius. We show that deprojected spectra extracted within the Bondi radius can be equivalently fit with only a single cooling flow model, where gas cools from 1.5 keV down below 0.1 keV at a rate of 0.03 M$_{\odot}$/yr. For the alternative multi-temperature spectral fits, the emission measures for each temperature component are also consistent with a cooling flow model. The lowest temperature and most rapidly cooling gas in M87 is therefore located at the smallest radii at ~100 pc and may form a mini cooling flow. If this cooling gas has some angular momentum, it will feed into the cold gas disk around the nucleus, which has a radius of ~80 pc and therefore lies just inside the observed transition in the hot gas structure

Food security, nutrition and health of food bank attendees in an English city: A cross-sectional study

Food banks in contemporary Britain are feeding record numbers of people. Little is known about attendees’ level of food insecurity, background diet quality or health. We surveyed 112 food bank attendees. Over 50% had experienced food shortage with hunger on a weekly basis or more often. Obesity and mental health problems were prevalent in women. Diet quality was poor, with energy, protein, fibre, iron and calcium intakes inadequate, while saturated fat and sugars intake were disproportionate. Women had poorer diet quality than men. Such patterns may lead to ill health

"Boring formal methods" or "Sherlock Holmes deduction methods"?

This paper provides an overview of common challenges in teaching of logic and formal methods to Computer Science and IT students. We discuss our experiences from the course IN3050: Applied Logic in Engineering, introduced as a "logic for everybody" elective course at at TU Munich, Germany, to engage pupils studying Computer Science, IT and engineering subjects on Bachelor and Master levels. Our goal was to overcome the bias that logic and formal methods are not only very complicated but also very boring to study and to apply. In this paper, we present the core structure of the course, provide examples of exercises and evaluate the course based on the students' surveys.Comment: Preprint. Accepted to the Software Technologies: Applications and Foundations (STAF 2016). Final version published by Springer International Publishing AG. arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:1602.0517

Use of Remote Camera Traps to Evaluate Animal-Based Welfare Indicators in Individual Free-Roaming Wild Horses

We previously developed a Ten-Stage Protocol for scientifically assessing the welfare of individual free-roaming wild animals using the Five Domains Model. The protocol includes developing methods for measuring or observing welfare indices. In this study, we assessed the use of remote camera traps to evaluate an extensive range of welfare indicators in individual free-roaming wild horses. Still images and videos were collected and analysed to assess whether horses could be detected and identified individually, which welfare indicators could be reliably evaluated, and whether behaviour could be quantitatively assessed. Remote camera trapping was successful in detecting and identifying horses (75% on still images and 72% on video observation events), across a range of habitats including woodlands where horses could not be directly observed. Twelve indicators of welfare across the Five Domains were assessed with equal frequency on both still images and video, with those most frequently assessable being body condition score (73% and 79% of observation events, respectively), body posture (76% for both), coat condition (42% and 52%, respectively), and whether or not the horse was sweating excessively (42% and 45%, respectively). An additional five indicators could only be assessed on video; those most frequently observable being presence or absence of weakness (66%), qualitative behavioural assessment (60%), presence or absence of shivering (51%), and gait at walk (50%). Specific behaviours were identified in 93% of still images and 84% of video events, and proportions of time different behaviours were captured could be calculated. Most social behaviours were rarely observed, but close spatial proximity to other horses, as an indicator of social bonds, was recorded in 36% of still images, and 29% of video observation events. This is the first study that describes detailed methodology for these purposes. The results of this study can also form the basis of application to other species, which could contribute significantly to advancing the field of wild animal welfare

Cluster randomised trials in the medical literature: two bibliometric surveys

Background: Several reviews of published cluster randomised trials have reported that about half did not take clustering into account in the analysis, which was thus incorrect and potentially misleading. In this paper I ask whether cluster randomised trials are increasing in both number and quality of reporting. Methods: Computer search for papers on cluster randomised trials since 1980, hand search of trial reports published in selected volumes of the British Medical Journal over 20 years. Results: There has been a large increase in the numbers of methodological papers and of trial reports using the term 'cluster random' in recent years, with about equal numbers of each type of paper. The British Medical Journal contained more such reports than any other journal. In this journal there was a corresponding increase over time in the number of trials where subjects were randomised in clusters. In 2003 all reports showed awareness of the need to allow for clustering in the analysis. In 1993 and before clustering was ignored in most such trials. Conclusion: Cluster trials are becoming more frequent and reporting is of higher quality. Perhaps statistician pressure works

Sequential Extensions of Causal and Evidential Decision Theory

Moving beyond the dualistic view in AI where agent and environment are separated incurs new challenges for decision making, as calculation of expected utility is no longer straightforward. The non-dualistic decision theory literature is split between causal decision theory and evidential decision theory. We extend these decision algorithms to the sequential setting where the agent alternates between taking actions and observing their consequences. We find that evidential decision theory has two natural extensions while causal decision theory only has one.Comment: ADT 201