A comparative study on approximate entropy measure and poincaré plot indexes of minimum foot clearance variability in the elderly during walking

Background: Trip-related falls which is a major problem in the elderly population, might be linked to declines in the balance control function due to ageing. Minimum foot clearance (MFC) which provides a more sensitive measure of the motor function of the locomotor system, has been identified as a potential gait parameter associated with trip-related falls in older population. This paper proposes nonlinear indexes (approximate entropy (ApEn) and Poincaré plot indexes) of MFC variability and investigates the relationship of MFC with derived indexes of elderly gait patterns. The main aim is to find MFC variability indexes that well correlate with balance impairments. Methods: MFC data during treadmill walking for 14 healthy elderly and 10 elderly participants with balance problems and a history of falls (falls risk) were analysed using a PEAK-2D motion analysis system. ApEn and Poincaré plot indexes of all MFC data sets were calculated and compared. Results: Significant relationships of mean MFC with Poincaré plot indexes (SD1, SD2) and ApEn (r = 0.70, p < 0.05; r = 0.86, p < 0.01; r = 0.74, p < 0.05) were found in the falls-risk elderly group. On the other hand, such relationships were absent in the healthy elderly group. In contrast, the ApEn values of MFC data series were significantly (p < 0.05) correlated with Poincaré plot indexes of MFC in the healthy elderly group, whereas correlations were absent in the falls-risk group. The ApEn values in the falls-risk group (mean ApEn = 0.18 ± 0.03) was significantly (p < 0.05) higher than that in the healthy group (mean ApEn = 0.13 ± 0.13). The higher ApEn values in the falls-risk group might indicate increased irregularities and randomness in their gait patterns and an indication of loss of gait control mechanism. ApEn values of randomly shuffled MFC data of falls risk subjects did not show any significant relationship with mean MFC. Conclusion: Results have implication for quantifying gait dynamics in normal and pathological conditions, thus could be useful for the early diagnosis of at-risk gait. Further research should provide important information on whether falls prevention intervention can improve the gait performance of falls risk elderly by monitoring the change in MFC variability indexes

The VITAH Trial-Vitamin D Supplementation and Cardiac Autonomic Tone in Patients with End-Stage Kidney Disease on Hemodialysis: A Blinded, Randomized Controlled Trial

End-stage kidney disease (ESKD) patients are at increased cardiovascular risk. Vitamin D deficiency is associated with depressed heart rate variability (HRV), a risk factor depicting poor cardiac autonomic tone and risk of cardiovascular death. Vitamin D deficiency and depressed HRV are highly prevalent in the ESKD population. We aimed to determine the effects of oral vitamin D supplementation on HRV ((low frequency (LF) to high frequency (HF) spectral ratio (LF:HF)) in ESKD patients on hemodialysis. Fifty-six subjects with ESKD requiring hemodialysis were recruited from January 2013-March 2015 and randomized 1:1 to either conventional (0.25 mcg alfacalcidol plus placebo 3×/week) or intensive (0.25 mcg alfacalcidol 3×/week plus 50,000 international units (IU) ergocalciferol 1×/week) vitamin D for six weeks. The primary outcome was the change in LF:HF. There was no difference in LF:HF from baseline to six weeks for either vitamin D treatment (conventional: p = 0.9 vs. baseline; intensive: p = 0.07 vs. baseline). However, participants who remained vitamin D-deficient (25-hydroxyvitamin D < 20 ng/mL) after treatment demonstrated an increase in LF:HF (conventional: n = 13, ∆LF:HF: 0.20 ± 0.06, p < 0.001 vs. insufficient and sufficient vitamin D groups; intensive: n = 8: ∆LF:HF: 0.15 ± 0.06, p < 0.001 vs. sufficient vitamin D group). Overall, six weeks of conventional or intensive vitamin D only augmented LF:HF in ESKD subjects who remained vitamin D-deficient after treatment. Our findings potentially suggest that while activated vitamin D, with or without additional nutritional vitamin D, does not appear to improve cardiac autonomic tone in hemodialysis patients with insufficient or sufficient baseline vitamin D levels, supplementation in patients with severe vitamin D deficiency may improve cardiac autonomic tone in this higher risk sub-population of ESKD. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT01774812

A comparative study on approximate entropy measure and poincaré plot indexes of minimum foot clearance variability in the elderly during walking

Background: Trip-related falls which is a major problem in the elderly population, might be linked to declines in the balance control function due to ageing. Minimum foot clearance (MFC) which provides a more sensitive measure of the motor function of the locomotor system, has been identified as a potential gait parameter associated with trip-related falls in older population. This paper proposes nonlinear indexes (approximate entropy (ApEn) and Poincaré plot indexes) of MFC variability and investigates the relationship of MFC with derived indexes of elderly gait patterns. The main aim is to find MFC variability indexes that well correlate with balance impairments. Methods: MFC data during treadmill walking for 14 healthy elderly and 10 elderly participants with balance problems and a history of falls (falls risk) were analysed using a PEAK-2D motion analysis system. ApEn and Poincaré plot indexes of all MFC data sets were calculated and compared. Results: Significant relationships of mean MFC with Poincaré plot indexes (SD1, SD2) and ApEn (r = 0.70, p < 0.05; r = 0.86, p < 0.01; r = 0.74, p < 0.05) were found in the falls-risk elderly group. On the other hand, such relationships were absent in the healthy elderly group. In contrast, the ApEn values of MFC data series were significantly (p < 0.05) correlated with Poincaré plot indexes of MFC in the healthy elderly group, whereas correlations were absent in the falls-risk group. The ApEn values in the falls-risk group (mean ApEn = 0.18 ± 0.03) was significantly (p < 0.05) higher than that in the healthy group (mean ApEn = 0.13 ± 0.13). The higher ApEn values in the falls-risk group might indicate increased irregularities and randomness in their gait patterns and an indication of loss of gait control mechanism. ApEn values of randomly shuffled MFC data of falls risk subjects did not show any significant relationship with mean MFC. Conclusion: Results have implication for quantifying gait dynamics in normal and pathological conditions, thus could be useful for the early diagnosis of at-risk gait. Further research should provide important information on whether falls prevention intervention can improve the gait performance of falls risk elderly by monitoring the change in MFC variability indexes

Identifying null meta-analyses that are ripe for updating

BACKGROUND: As an increasingly large number of meta-analyses are published, quantitative methods are needed to help clinicians and systematic review teams determine when meta-analyses are not up to date. METHODS: We propose new methods for determining when non-significant meta-analytic results might be overturned, based on a prediction of the number of participants required in new studies. To guide decision making, we introduce the "new participant ratio", the ratio of the actual number of participants in new studies to the predicted number required to obtain statistical significance. A simulation study was conducted to study the performance of our methods and a real meta-analysis provides further evidence. RESULTS: In our three simulation configurations, our diagnostic test for determining whether a meta-analysis is out of date had sensitivity of 55%, 62%, and 49% with corresponding specificity of 85%, 80%, and 90% respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Simulations suggest that our methods are able to detect out-of-date meta-analyses. These quick and approximate methods show promise for use by systematic review teams to help decide whether to commit the considerable resources required to update a meta-analysis. Further investigation and evaluation of the methods is required before they can be recommended for general use

The influence of running wide on the bend on finishing times and positions in men's and women's 800 m finals at major global championships

The aim of this study was to determine the influence of running wide on bends regarding intermediate changes of position, dispersion of athletes, and speed relative to season best (SB) between medalists and non-medalists in men’s and women’s 800 m championship finals. Extra distance covered on bends was measured using official videos. The total distance run was calculated and described as the minimum calculable distance. Theoretical mean speeds, theoretical finishing times and theoretical finishing positions were calculated. In addition, intermediate and total changes of position (on bends and straights) and dispersion between athletes in each 100-m segment were calculated. Finishing times and segment times were calculated relative to SB. Theoretical finishing times were faster than official finishing times (p<.001). Finishing positions were influenced by extra distance covered. Medalists displayed a higher number of positive changes of intermediate positions than non-medalists (p<.001), occurring mainly on the straights (p=.003) and were greatest between 500 and 600 m (p=.003), without differences between groups in total extra distance and in extra distance covered on each bend. Medalists displayed higher total speeds relative to SB (p=.042) and over the 500-600 m segment onwards (p<.05), increasing the dispersion from this segment onwards (p<.001). These findings indicate that running the shortest distance on the bends and being able to accelerate during the last 300 m of the race positively influence finishing position in major championships 800 m finals

What do we know and when do we know it?

Two essential aspects of virtual screening are considered: experimental design and performance metrics. In the design of any retrospective virtual screen, choices have to be made as to the purpose of the exercise. Is the goal to compare methods? Is the interest in a particular type of target or all targets? Are we simulating a ‘real-world’ setting, or teasing out distinguishing features of a method? What are the confidence limits for the results? What should be reported in a publication? In particular, what criteria should be used to decide between different performance metrics? Comparing the field of molecular modeling to other endeavors, such as medical statistics, criminology, or computer hardware evaluation indicates some clear directions. Taken together these suggest the modeling field has a long way to go to provide effective assessment of its approaches, either to itself or to a broader audience, but that there are no technical reasons why progress cannot be made

Simian-Human Immunodeficiency Infection – Is the Course Set in the Acute Phase?

Identifying early predictors of infection outcome is important for the clinical management of HIV infection, and both viral load and CD4+ T cell level have been found to be useful predictors of subsequent disease progression. Very high viral load or extensively depleted CD4+ T cells in the acute phase often result in failure of immune control, and a fast progression to AIDS. It is usually assumed that extensive loss of CD4+ T cells in the acute phase of HIV infection prevents the establishment of robust T cell help required for virus control in the chronic phase. We tested this hypothesis using viral load and CD4+ T cell number of SHIV-infected rhesus macaques. In acute infection, the lowest level of CD4+ T cells was a good predictor of later survival; animals having less than 3.3% of baseline CD4+ T cells progressed to severe disease, while animals with more than 3.3% of baseline CD4+ T cells experienced CD4+ T cell recovery. However, it is unclear if the disease progression was caused by early depletion, or was simply a result of a higher susceptibility of an animal to infection. We derived a simple relationship between the expected number of CD4+ T cells in the acute and chronic phases for a constant level of host susceptibility or resistance. We found that in most cases, the depletion of CD4+ T cells in chronic infection was consistent with the prediction from the acute CD4+ T cell loss. However, the animals with less than 3.3% of baseline CD4 T cells in the acute phase were approximately 20% more depleted late in the infection than expected based on constant level of virus control. This suggests that severe acute CD4 depletion indeed impairs the immune response

Bivariate genetic modelling of the response to an oral glucose tolerance challenge: A gene x environment interaction approach

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Twin and family studies have shown the importance of genetic factors influencing fasting and 2 h glucose and insulin levels. However, the genetics of the physiological response to a glucose load has not been thoroughly investigated. METHODS: We studied 580 monozygotic and 1,937 dizygotic British female twins from the Twins UK Registry. The effects of genetic and environmental factors on fasting and 2 h glucose and insulin levels were estimated using univariate genetic modelling. Bivariate model fitting was used to investigate the glucose and insulin responses to a glucose load, i.e. an OGTT. RESULTS: The genetic effect on fasting and 2 h glucose and insulin levels ranged between 40% and 56% after adjustment for age and BMI. Exposure to a glucose load resulted in the emergence of novel genetic effects on 2 h glucose independent of the fasting level, accounting for about 55% of its heritability. For 2 h insulin, the effect of the same genes that already influenced fasting insulin was amplified by about 30%. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Exposure to a glucose challenge uncovers new genetic variance for glucose and amplifies the effects of genes that already influence the fasting insulin level. Finding the genes acting on 2 h glucose independently of fasting glucose may offer new aetiological insight into the risk of cardiovascular events and death from all causes

Intervention planning and modification of the BUMP intervention: a digital intervention for the early detection of raised blood pressure in pregnancy

Background: Hypertensive disorders in pregnancy, particularly pre-eclampsia, pose a substantial health risk for both maternal and foetal outcomes. The BUMP (Blood Pressure Self-Monitoring in Pregnancy) interventions are being tested in a trial. They aim to facilitate the early detection of raised blood pressure through self-monitoring. This article outlines how the self-monitoring interventions in the BUMP trial were developed and modified using the person-based approach to promote engagement and adherence. Methods: Key behavioural challenges associated with blood pressure self-monitoring in pregnancy were identified through synthesising qualitative pilot data and existing evidence, which informed guiding principles for the development process. Social cognitive theory was identified as an appropriate theoretical framework. A testable logic model was developed to illustrate the hypothesised processes of change associated with the intervention. Iterative qualitative feedback from women and staff informed modifications to the participant materials. Results: The evidence synthesis suggested women face challenges integrating self-monitoring into their lives and that adherence is challenging at certain time points in pregnancy (for example, starting maternity leave). Intervention modification included strategies to address adherence but also focussed on modifying outcome expectancies, by providing messages explaining pre-eclampsia and outlining the potential benefits of self-monitoring. Conclusions: With an in-depth understanding of the target population, several methods and approaches to plan and develop interventions specifically relevant to pregnant women were successfully integrated, to address barriers to behaviour change while ensuring they are easy to engage with, persuasive and acceptable

PredictABEL: an R package for the assessment of risk prediction models

The rapid identification of genetic markers for multifactorial diseases from genome-wide association studies is fuelling interest in investigating the predictive ability and health care utility of genetic risk models. Various measures are available for the assessment of risk prediction models, each addressing a different aspect of performance and utility. We developed PredictABEL, a package in R that covers descriptive tables, measures and figures that are used in the analysis of risk prediction studies such as measures of model fit, predictive ability and clinical utility, and risk distributions, calibration plot and the receiver operating characteristic plot. Tables and figures are saved as separate files in a user-specified format, which include publication-quality EPS and TIFF formats. All figures are available in a ready-made layout, but they can be customized to the preferences of the user. The package has been developed for the analysis of genetic risk prediction studies, but can also be used for studies that only include non-genetic risk factors. PredictABEL is freely available at the websites of GenABEL (http://www.genabel.org) and CRAN (http://cran.r-project.org/)