The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of a moderately contagious disease

BACKGROUND: Much research in epidemiology has been focused on evaluating conventional methods of control strategies in the event of an epidemic or pandemic. Travel restrictions are often suggested as an efficient way to reduce the spread of a contagious disease that threatens public health, but few papers have studied in depth the effects of travel restrictions. In this study, we investigated what effect different levels of travel restrictions might have on the speed and geographical spread of an outbreak of a disease similar to severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). METHODS: We used a stochastic simulation model incorporating survey data of travel patterns between municipalities in Sweden collected over 3 years. We tested scenarios of travel restrictions in which travel over distances >50 km and 20 km would be banned, taking into account different levels of compliance. RESULTS: We found that a ban on journeys >50 km would drastically reduce the speed and geographical spread of outbreaks, even when compliance is < 100%. The result was found to be robust for different rates of intermunicipality transmission intensities. CONCLUSION: This study supports travel restrictions as an effective way to mitigate the effect of a future disease outbreak

Impact of Space Weather on Climate and Habitability of Terrestrial Type Exoplanets

The current progress in the detection of terrestrial type exoplanets has opened a new avenue in the characterization of exoplanetary atmospheres and in the search for biosignatures of life with the upcoming ground-based and space missions. To specify the conditions favorable for the origin, development and sustainment of life as we know it in other worlds, we need to understand the nature of astrospheric, atmospheric and surface environments of exoplanets in habitable zones around G-K-M dwarfs including our young Sun. Global environment is formed by propagated disturbances from the planet-hosting stars in the form of stellar flares, coronal mass ejections, energetic particles, and winds collectively known as astrospheric space weather. Its characterization will help in understanding how an exoplanetary ecosystem interacts with its host star, as well as in the specification of the physical, chemical and biochemical conditions that can create favorable and/or detrimental conditions for planetary climate and habitability along with evolution of planetary internal dynamics over geological timescales. A key linkage of (astro) physical, chemical, and geological processes can only be understood in the framework of interdisciplinary studies with the incorporation of progress in heliophysics, astrophysics, planetary and Earth sciences. The assessment of the impacts of host stars on the climate and habitability of terrestrial (exo)planets will significantly expand the current definition of the habitable zone to the biogenic zone and provide new observational strategies for searching for signatures of life. The major goal of this paper is to describe and discuss the current status and recent progress in this interdisciplinary field and to provide a new roadmap for the future development of the emerging field of exoplanetary science and astrobiology.Comment: 206 pages, 24 figures, 1 table; Review paper. International Journal of Astrobiology (2019

Mantle redox state drives outgassing chemistry and atmospheric composition of rocky planets.

Funder: German Research Foundation (DFG) SFB-TRR 170 "Late Accretion onto Terrestrial Planets" (subprojects C5, C6) and projects Ts 17/2-1 and NO 1324/2-1Funder: Swiss National Foundation under grant PZ00P2 174028 and the National Center for Competence in Research PlanetSVolcanic degassing of planetary interiors has important implications for their corresponding atmospheres. The oxidation state of rocky interiors affects the volatile partitioning during mantle melting and subsequent volatile speciation near the surface. Here we show that the mantle redox state is central to the chemical composition of atmospheres while factors such as planetary mass, thermal state, and age mainly affect the degassing rate. We further demonstrate that mantle oxygen fugacity has an effect on atmospheric thickness and that volcanic degassing is most efficient for planets between 2 and 4 Earth masses. We show that outgassing of reduced systems is dominated by strongly reduced gases such as [Formula: see text], with only smaller fractions of moderately reduced/oxidised gases ([Formula: see text], [Formula: see text]). Overall, a reducing scenario leads to a lower atmospheric pressure at the surface and to a larger atmospheric thickness compared to an oxidised system. Atmosphere predictions based on interior redox scenarios can be compared to observations of atmospheres of rocky exoplanets, potentially broadening our knowledge on the diversity of exoplanetary redox states

From Re-Emergence to Hyperendemicity: The Natural History of the Dengue Epidemic in Brazil

The spread of dengue virus is a major public health problem. Though the burden of dengue has historically been concentrated in Southeast Asian countries, Brazil has become the country that reports the largest number of cases in the world. While prior to 2007 the disease affected mostly adults, during the 2007 epidemic the number of dengue hemorrhagic fever cases more than doubled, and over 53% of cases were in children under 15 years of age. In this paper, we propose that the conditions for the shift were being set gradually since the re-introduction of dengue in 1986 and that they represent the transition from re-emergence to hyperendemicity. Using data from an age stratified seroprevalence study conducted in Recife, we estimated the force of infection (a measure of transmission intensity) between 1986–2006 and used these estimates to simulate the accumulation of immunity since the re-emergence. As the length of time that dengue has circulated increases, adults have a lower probability of remaining susceptible to primary or secondary infection and thus, cases become on average younger. If in fact the shift represents the transition from re-emergence to hyperendemicity, similar shifts are likely to be observed in the rest of Brazil, the American continent and other regions where transmission emerges

Dengue Dynamics in Binh Thuan Province, Southern Vietnam: Periodicity, Synchronicity and Climate Variability

Dengue has become a major international public health problem due to increasing geographic distribution and a transition from epidemic transmission with long inter-epidemic intervals to endemic transmission with seasonal fluctuation. Seasonal and multi-annual cycles in dengue incidence vary over time and space. We performed wavelet analyses on time series of monthly notified dengue cases in Binh Thuan province, southern Vietnam, from January 1994 to June 2009. We observed a continuous annual mode of oscillation with a non-stationary 2–3-year multi-annual cycle. We used phase differences to describe the spatio-temporal patterns which suggest that the seasonal wave of infection was either synchronous with all districts or moving away from Phan Thiet district, while the multi-annual wave of infection was moving towards Phan Thiet district. We also found a strong non-stationary association between ENSO indices and climate variables with dengue incidence. We provided insight in dengue population transmission dynamics over the past 14.5 years. Further studies on an extensive time series dataset are needed to test the hypothesis that epidemics emanate from larger cities in southern Vietnam

Application of Fickian and non-Fickian diffusion models to study moisture diffusion in asphalt mastics

The objective of this study was to investigate certain aspects of asphalt mastic moisture diffusion characteristics in order to better understand the moisture damage phenomenon in asphalt mixtures. Moisture sorption experiments were conducted on four asphalt mastics using an environmental chamber capable of automatically controlling both relative humidity (85 %) and temperature (23 °C). The four mastics tested were identical in terms of bitumen type (40/60 pen), bitumen amount (25 % by of wt% total mix), mineral filler amount (25 % by wt%) and fine aggregate amount (50 % by wt%). The materials differed in terms of mineral filler type (granite or limestone) and fine aggregate type (granite or limestone). Preliminary data obtained during the early part of the study showed certain anomalous behavior of the materials including geometry (thickness)-dependent diffusion coefficient. It was therefore decided to investigate some aspects related to moisture diffusion in mastics by applying the Fickian and two non-Fickian (anomalous) diffusion models to the moisture sorption data. The two non-Fickian models included a two-phase Langmuir-type model and a two-parameter time-variable model. All three models predicted moisture diffusion in mastics extremely well (R 2 > 0.95). The observed variation of diffusion coefficient with thickness was attributed in part to microstructural changes (settlement of the denser fine aggregates near the bottom of the material) during the rather long-duration diffusion testing. This assertion was supported by X-ray computed tomography imaging of the mastic that showed significant accumulation of aggregate particles near the bottom of the sample with time. The results from the Langmuir-type model support a two-phase (free and bound) model for moisture absorbed by asphalt mastic and suggests about 80 % of absorbed water in the free phase remain bound within the mastic. The results also suggest that moisture diffusion in asphalt mastic may be time-dependent with diffusion decreasing by about four times during a typical diffusion test lasting up to 500 h. The study concludes that both geometry and time-dependent physical characteristics of mastic are important factors to consider with respect to moisture diffusion in asphalt mastics

Phylodynamics and movement of Phycodnaviruses among aquatic environments

Phycodnaviruses have a significant role in modulating the dynamics of phytoplankton, thereby influencing community structure and succession, nutrient cycles and potentially atmospheric composition because phytoplankton fix about half the carbon dioxide (CO2) on the planet, and some algae release dimethylsulphoniopropionate when lysed by viruses. Despite their ecological importance and widespread distribution, relatively little is known about the evolutionary history, phylogenetic relationships and phylodynamics of the Phycodnaviruses from freshwater environments. Herein we provide novel data on Phycodnaviruses from the largest river system on earth—the Amazon Basin—that were compared with samples from different aquatic systems from several places around the world. Based on phylogenetic inference using DNA polymerase (pol) sequences we show the presence of distinct populations of Phycodnaviridae. Preliminary coarse-grained phylodynamics and phylogeographic inferences revealed a complex dynamics characterized by long-term fluctuations in viral population sizes, with a remarkable worldwide reduction of the effective population around 400 thousand years before the present (KYBP), followed by a recovery near to the present time. Moreover, we present evidence for significant viral gene flow between freshwater environments, but crucially almost none between freshwater and marine environments

Temporal Asynchrony of Trophic Status Between Mainstream and Tributary Bay Within a Giant Dendritic Reservoir: The Role of Local-Scale Regulators

Limnologists have regarded temporal coherence (synchrony) as a powerful tool for identifying the relative importance of local-scale regulators and regional climatic drivers on lake ecosystems. Limnological studies on Asian reservoirs have emphasized that climate and hydrology under the influences of monsoon are dominant factors regulating seasonal patterns of lake trophic status; yet, little is known of synchrony or asynchrony of trophic status in the single reservoir ecosystem. Based on monthly monitoring data of chlorophyll a, transparency, nutrients, and nonvolatile suspended solids (NVSS) during 1-year period, the present study evaluated temporal coherence to test whether local-scale regulators disturb the seasonal dynamics of trophic state indices (TSI) in a giant dendritic reservoir, China (Three Gorges Reservoir, TGR). Reservoir-wide coherences for TSICHL, TSISD, and TSITP showed dramatic variations over spatial scale, indicating temporal asynchrony of trophic status. Following the concept of TSI differences, algal productivity in the mainstream of TGR and Xiangxi Bay except the upstream of the bay were always limited by nonalgal turbidity (TSICHL−TSISD <0) rather than nitrogen and phosphorus (TSICHL−TSITN <0 and TSICHL−TSITP <0). The coherence analysis for TSI differences showed that local processes of Xiangxi Bay were the main responsible for local asynchrony of nonalgal turbidity limitation levels. Regression analysis further proved that local temporal asynchrony for TSISD and nonalgal turbidity limitation levels were regulated by local dynamics of NVSS, rather than geographical distance. The implications of the present study are to emphasize that the results of trophic status obtained from a single environment (reservoir mainstream) cannot be extrapolated to other environments (tributary bay) in a way that would allow its use as a sentinel site

Decelerating Spread of West Nile Virus by Percolation in a Heterogeneous Urban Landscape

Vector-borne diseases are emerging and re-emerging in urban environments throughout the world, presenting an increasing challenge to human health and a major obstacle to development. Currently, more than half of the global population is concentrated in urban environments, which are highly heterogeneous in the extent, degree, and distribution of environmental modifications. Because the prevalence of vector-borne pathogens is so closely coupled to the ecologies of vector and host species, this heterogeneity has the potential to significantly alter the dynamical systems through which pathogens propagate, and also thereby affect the epidemiological patterns of disease at multiple spatial scales. One such pattern is the speed of spread. Whereas standard models hold that pathogens spread as waves with constant or increasing speed, we hypothesized that heterogeneity in urban environments would cause decelerating travelling waves in incipient epidemics. To test this hypothesis, we analysed data on the spread of West Nile virus (WNV) in New York City (NYC), the 1999 epicentre of the North American pandemic, during annual epizootics from 2000–2008. These data show evidence of deceleration in all years studied, consistent with our hypothesis. To further explain these patterns, we developed a spatial model for vector-borne disease transmission in a heterogeneous environment. An emergent property of this model is that deceleration occurs only in the vicinity of a critical point. Geostatistical analysis suggests that NYC may be on the edge of this criticality. Together, these analyses provide the first evidence for the endogenous generation of decelerating travelling waves in an emerging infectious disease. Since the reported deceleration results from the heterogeneity of the environment through which the pathogen percolates, our findings suggest that targeting control at key sites could efficiently prevent pathogen spread to remote susceptible areas or even halt epidemics

Forcing Versus Feedback: Epidemic Malaria and Monsoon Rains in Northwest India

Malaria epidemics in regions with seasonal windows of transmission can vary greatly in size from year to year. A central question has been whether these interannual cycles are driven by climate, are instead generated by the intrinsic dynamics of the disease, or result from the resonance of these two mechanisms. This corresponds to the more general inverse problem of identifying the respective roles of external forcings vs. internal feedbacks from time series for nonlinear and noisy systems. We propose here a quantitative approach to formally compare rival hypotheses on climate vs. disease dynamics, or external forcings vs. internal feedbacks, that combines dynamical models with recently developed, computational inference methods. The interannual patterns of epidemic malaria are investigated here for desert regions of northwest India, with extensive epidemiological records for Plasmodium falciparum malaria for the past two decades. We formulate a dynamical model of malaria transmission that explicitly incorporates rainfall, and we rely on recent advances on parameter estimation for nonlinear and stochastic dynamical systems based on sequential Monte Carlo methods. Results show a significant effect of rainfall in the inter-annual variability of epidemic malaria that involves a threshold in the disease response. The model exhibits high prediction skill for yearly cases in the malaria transmission season following the monsoonal rains. Consideration of a more complex model with clinical immunity demonstrates the robustness of the findings and suggests a role of infected individuals that lack clinical symptoms as a reservoir for transmission. Our results indicate that the nonlinear dynamics of the disease itself play a role at the seasonal, but not the interannual, time scales. They illustrate the feasibility of forecasting malaria epidemics in desert and semi-arid regions of India based on climate variability. This approach should be applicable to malaria in other locations, to other infectious diseases, and to other nonlinear systems under forcing