Compact High-Velocity Clouds at High Resolution

Six examples of the compact, isolated high-velocity clouds catalogued by Braun & Burton (1999) and identified with a dynamically cold ensemble of primitive objects falling towards the barycenter of the Local Group have been imaged with the Westerbork Synthesis Radio Telescope; an additional ten have been imaged with the Arecibo telescope. The imaging reveals a characteristic core/halo morphology: one or several cores of cool, relatively high-column-density material, are embedded in an extended halo of warmer, lower-density material. Several of the cores show kinematic gradients consistent with rotation; these CHVCs are evidently rotationally supported and dark-matter dominated. The imaging data allows several independent estimates of the distances to these objects, which lie in the range 0.3 to 1.0 Mpc. The CHVC properties resemble what might be expected from very dark dwarf irregular galaxies.Comment: 12 pages, 7 figures, to appear in "The Chemical Evolution of the Milky Way: Stars versus Clusters", eds. F. Matteuchi and F. Giovannelli, Kluwer Academic Publisher

Discovery of molecular hydrogen in a high-velocity cloud of the Galactic halo

We report the discovery of molecular hydrogen absorption in a Galactic high-velocity cloud (HVC) in the direction of the Large Magellanic Cloud. For the same HVC we derive an iron abundance which is half of the solar value. Thus, all evidence points to a Galactic origin for high-velocity cloud complex in front of the LMC.Comment: Published in Nature, this week; 14 pages, 3 figure

A methodology for the risk assessment of climate variability and change under uncertainty

Existing methods for the assessment of the potential impacts of climate change in productive activities and sectors are usually limited to point estimates that do not consider the inherent variability and uncertainty of climatic and socioeconomic variables. This is a major drawback given that only a limited and potentially misleading estimation of risk can be expected when ignoring such determinant factors. In this paper, a new methodology is introduced that is capable of integrating the agent's beliefs and expert judgment into the assessment of the potential impacts of climate change in a quantitative manner by means of an objective procedure. The goal is to produce tailor-made information to assist decision-making under uncertainty in a way that is consistent with the current state of knowledge and the available subjective "expert" information. Time-charts of the evolution of different risk measures, that can be relevant for assisting decision-making and planning, can be constructed using this new methodology. This methodology is illustrated with a case study of coffee production in Mexico. Time-dependent probabilistic scenarios for coffee production and income, conditional on the agent's beliefs and expert judgment, are developed for the average producer under uncertain future conditions. It is shown that variability in production and income, generated by introducing climate variability and uncertainty are important factors affecting decision-making and the assessment of economic viability that are frequently ignored. The concept of Value at Risk, commonly applied in financial risk management, is introduced as a means for estimating the maximum expected loss for a previously chosen confidence level. Results are tailor-made for agents that have incomplete information and different beliefs. In this case study, the costs of climate change for coffee production in Veracruz are estimated to have a present value representing from 3 to 14 times the current annual value of coffee production in the state. © 2011 The Author(s)

A rough set-based association rule approach implemented on exploring beverages product spectrum

[[abstract]]When items are classified according to whether they have more or less of a characteristic, the scale used is referred to as an ordinal scale. The main characteristic of the ordinal scale is that the categories have a logical or ordered relationship to each other. Thus, the ordinal scale data processing is very common in marketing, satisfaction and attitudinal research. This study proposes a new data mining method, using a rough set-based association rule, to analyze ordinal scale data, which has the ability to handle uncertainty in the data classification/sorting process. The induction of rough-set rules is presented as method of dealing with data uncertainty, while creating predictive if—then rules that generalize data values, for the beverage market in Taiwan. Empirical evaluation reveals that the proposed Rough Set Associational Rule (RSAR), combined with rough set theory, is superior to existing methods of data classification and can more effectively address the problems associated with ordinal scale data, for exploration of a beverage product spectrum.[[notice]]補正完畢[[incitationindex]]SCI[[booktype]]紙本[[booktype]]電子

Gas flows, star formation and galaxy evolution

In the first part of this article we show how observations of the chemical evolution of the Galaxy: G- and K-dwarf numbers as functions of metallicity, and abundances of the light elements, D, Li, Be and B, in both stars and the interstellar medium (ISM), lead to the conclusion that metal poor HI gas has been accreting to the Galactic disc during the whole of its lifetime, and is accreting today at a measurable rate, ~2 Msun per year across the full disc. Estimates of the local star formation rate (SFR) using methods based on stellar activity, support this picture. The best fits to all these data are for models where the accretion rate is constant, or slowly rising with epoch. We explain here how this conclusion, for a galaxy in a small bound group, is not in conflict with graphs such as the Madau plot, which show that the universal SFR has declined steadily from z=1 to the present day. We also show that a model in which disc galaxies in general evolve by accreting major clouds of low metallicity gas from their surroundings can explain many observations, notably that the SFR for whole galaxies tends to show obvious variability, and fractionally more for early than for late types, and yields lower dark to baryonic matter ratios for large disc galaxies than for dwarfs. In the second part of the article we use NGC 1530 as a template object, showing from Fabry-Perot observations of its Halpha emission how strong shear in this strongly barred galaxy acts to inhibit star formation, while compression acts to stimulate it.Comment: 20 pages, 10 figures, to be presented at the "Penetrating Bars through Masks of Cosmic Dust" conference in South Africa, proceedings published by Kluwer, Eds. D.L. Block, K.C. Freeman, I. Puerari, & R. Groes

Violations of betweenness and choice shifts in groups

In decision theory, the betweenness axiom postulates that a decision maker who chooses an alternative A over another alternative B must also choose any probability mixture of A and B over B itself and can never choose a probability mixture of A and B over A itself. The betweenness axiom is a weaker version of the independence axiom of expected utility theory. Numerous empirical studies documented systematic violations of the betweenness axiom in revealed individual choice under uncertainty. This paper shows that these systematic violations can be linked to another behavioral regularity\u2014choice shifts in a group decision making. Choice shifts are observed if an individual faces the same decision problem but makes a different choice when deciding alone and in a group

Accretion of low-metallicity gas by the Milky Way

Models of the chemical evolution of the Milky Way suggest that: the observed abundances of elements heavier than helium ('metals') require a continuous infall of gas with metallicity (metal abundance) about 0.1 times the solar value. An infall rate integrated over the entire disk of the Milky Way of similar to 1 solar mass per year can solve the 'G-dwarf problem'-the observational fact that the metallicities of most long-lived stars near the Sun lie in a relatively narrow range(1-3). This infall dilutes the enrichment arising from the production of heavy elements in stars, and thereby prevents the metallicity of the interstellar medium from increasing steadily with time. However, in other spiral galaxies, the low-metallicity gas needed to provide this infall has been observed only in associated dwarf galaxies(4) and in the extreme outer disk of the Milky Way(5,6). In the distant Universe, low-metallicity hydrogen clouds (known as 'damped Ly alpha absorbers') are sometimes seen near galaxies(7,8). Here we report a metallicity of 0.09 times solar for a massive cloud that is falling into the disk of the Milky Way. The mass now associated with this cloud represents an infall per unit area of about the theoretically expected rate, and similar to 0.1-0.2 times the amount required for the whole Galaxy