Exploring Interpretability for Predictive Process Analytics

Modern predictive analytics underpinned by machine learning techniques has become a key enabler to the automation of data-driven decision making. In the context of business process management, predictive analytics has been applied to making predictions about the future state of an ongoing business process instance, for example, when will the process instance complete and what will be the outcome upon completion. Machine learning models can be trained on event log data recording historical process execution to build the underlying predictive models. Multiple techniques have been proposed so far which encode the information available in an event log and construct input features required to train a predictive model. While accuracy has been a dominant criterion in the choice of various techniques, they are often applied as a black-box in building predictive models. In this paper, we derive explanations using interpretable machine learning techniques to compare and contrast the suitability of multiple predictive models of high accuracy. The explanations allow us to gain an understanding of the underlying reasons for a prediction and highlight scenarios where accuracy alone may not be sufficient in assessing the suitability of techniques used to encode event log data to features used by a predictive model. Findings from this study motivate the need and importance to incorporate interpretability in predictive process analytics.Comment: 15 pages, 7 figure

Antimigraine medication use and associated health care costs in employed patients

Migraine is under diagnosed and suboptimally treated in the majority of patients, and also associated with decreased productivity in employees. The objective of this retrospective study is to assess the antimigraine medication use and associated resource utilization in employed patients. Patients with primary diagnosis of migraine or receiving antimigraine prescription drugs were identified from an employer-sponsored health insurance plan in 2010. Medical utilization and health care costs were determined for the year of 2010. Generalized linear regression was applied to evaluate the association between health care costs and the use of antimigraine medications by controlling covariates. Of 465 patients meeting the study criteria, nearly 30% that had migraine diagnosis were prescribed antimigraine medications, and 20% that had migraine diagnosis were not prescribed antimigraine medications. The remaining 50% were prescribed antimigraine medications but did not have migraine diagnosis. Patients with antimigraine medication prescriptions showed lower frequency of emergency department visits than those without antimigraine medication prescriptions. Regression models indicated an increase in migraine-related health care costs by 86% but decreases in all-cause medical costs and total health care costs by 42 and 26%, respectively, in the antimigraine medication use group after adjusting for covariates. Employed patients experienced inadequate pharmacotherapy for migraine treatment. After controlling for covariates, antimigraine prescription drug use was associated with lower total medical utilization and health care costs. Further studies should investigate patient self-reported care and needs to manage headache and develop effective intervention to improve patient quality of life and productivity

CONSORT recommendations in abstracts of randomised, controlled trials on migraine and headache

A CONSORT statement on the content of abstracts of randomised, controlled trials (RCTs) was published in 2008. I therefore reviewed the abstracts from 2009 to 2010 published on RCTs in Cephalalgia, Headache and other (non-headache) journals. The following items were reviewed: number of patients, reporting of response either in percentages or absolute values, the use of p values, and effect size with its precision. The latter was recommended in the CONSORT statement. A total of 46 abstracts were reviewed and effect size with 95% confidence intervals was only reported in seven abstracts. The influence of the CONSORT statement on reporting in abstracts has so far only had a limited influence on the headache literature

European LeukemiaNet 2020 recommendations for treating chronic myeloid leukemia

The therapeutic landscape of chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) has profoundly changed over the past 7 years. Most patients with chronic phase (CP) now have a normal life expectancy. Another goal is achieving a stable deep molecular response (DMR) and discontinuing medication for treatment-free remission (TFR). The European LeukemiaNet convened an expert panel to critically evaluate and update the evidence to achieve these goals since its previous recommendations. First-line treatment is a tyrosine kinase inhibitor (TKI; imatinib brand or generic, dasatinib, nilotinib, and bosutinib are available first-line). Generic imatinib is the cost-effective initial treatment in CP. Various contraindications and side-effects of all TKIs should be considered. Patient risk status at diagnosis should be assessed with the new EUTOS long-term survival (ELTS)-score. Monitoring of response should be done by quantitative polymerase chain reaction whenever possible. A change of treatment is recommended when intolerance cannot be ameliorated or when molecular milestones are not reached. Greater than 10% BCR-ABL1 at 3 months indicates treatment failure when confirmed. Allogeneic transplantation continues to be a therapeutic option particularly for advanced phase CML. TKI treatment should be withheld during pregnancy. Treatment discontinuation may be considered in patients with durable DMR with the goal of achieving TFR

The impact of generational change and retirement on psychiatry to 2025

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Australia is currently experiencing widespread shortages of psychiatrists. The changing nature of the workforce and increasing demand mean that these shortages are unlikely to ease. This study aims to identify demographic change and retirement patterns of the Australian psychiatry workforce from 1995 to 2003, and the implications of those changes for future workforce planning.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Data from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW) Medical Labour Force Survey from 1995 to 2003 is used to examine ageing of the psychiatry workforce and attrition of psychiatrists aged 50 years and over. Future attrition from the workforce is projected to 2025.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Sixty two percent of psychiatrists practicing in the year 2000 are predicted to have retired by 2025. Most psychiatrists continue to work until late in life, with only 18 per cent retiring before age 65. The psychiatry workforce aged significantly between 1995 and 2003 (p < 0.001), with men older than women in both years. A reduction in hours worked by psychiatrists reflects both the increasing proportion of females and the older members of the profession reducing their hours in preparation for retirement.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The impact of ageing of the workforce may be more immediate for psychiatry than for some other health professions. With the growing proportion of females and their typically lower workforce participation, more than one younger psychiatrist will be required to replace each of the mostly male retirees.</p

An Empirical Strategy for Characterizing Bacterial Proteomes across Species in the Absence of Genomic Sequences

Global protein identification through current proteomics methods typically depends on the availability of sequenced genomes. In spite of increasingly high throughput sequencing technologies, this information is not available for every microorganism and rarely available for entire microbial communities. Nevertheless, the protein-level homology that exists between related bacteria makes it possible to extract biological information from the proteome of an organism or microbial community by using the genomic sequences of a near neighbor organism. Here, we demonstrate a trans-organism search strategy for determining the extent to which near-neighbor genome sequences can be applied to identify proteins in unsequenced environmental isolates. In proof of concept testing, we found that within a CLUSTAL W distance of 0.089, near-neighbor genomes successfully identified a high percentage of proteins within an organism. Application of this strategy to characterize environmental bacterial isolates lacking sequenced genomes, but having 16S rDNA sequence similarity to Shewanella resulted in the identification of 300–500 proteins in each strain. The majority of identified pathways mapped to core processes, as well as to processes unique to the Shewanellae, in particular to the presence of c-type cytochromes. Examples of core functional categories include energy metabolism, protein and nucleotide synthesis and cofactor biosynthesis, allowing classification of bacteria by observation of conserved processes. Additionally, within these core functionalities, we observed proteins involved in the alternative lactate utilization pathway, recently described in Shewanella

Limits on WWZ and WW\gamma couplings from p\bar{p}\to e\nu jj X events at \sqrt{s} = 1.8 TeV

We present limits on anomalous WWZ and WW-gamma couplings from a search for WW and WZ production in p-bar p collisions at sqrt(s)=1.8 TeV. We use p-bar p -> e-nu jjX events recorded with the D0 detector at the Fermilab Tevatron Collider during the 1992-1995 run. The data sample corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 96.0+-5.1 pb^(-1). Assuming identical WWZ and WW-gamma coupling parameters, the 95% CL limits on the CP-conserving couplings are -0.33<lambda<0.36 (Delta-kappa=0) and -0.43<Delta-kappa<0.59 (lambda=0), for a form factor scale Lambda = 2.0 TeV. Limits based on other assumptions are also presented.Comment: 11 pages, 2 figures, 2 table

Search for New Physics in e mu X Data at D0 Using Sleuth: A Quasi-Model-Independent Search Strategy for New Physics

We present a quasi-model-independent search for the physics responsible for electroweak symmetry breaking. We define final states to be studied, and construct a rule that identifies a set of relevant variables for any particular final state. A new algorithm ("Sleuth") searches for regions of excess in those variables and quantifies the significance of any detected excess. After demonstrating the sensitivity of the method, we apply it to the semi-inclusive channel e mu X collected in 108 pb^-1 of ppbar collisions at sqrt(s) = 1.8 TeV at the D0 experiment during 1992-1996 at the Fermilab Tevatron. We find no evidence of new high p_T physics in this sample.Comment: 23 pages, 12 figures. Submitted to Physical Review

Search For Heavy Pointlike Dirac Monopoles

We have searched for central production of a pair of photons with high transverse energies in $p\bar p$ collisions at $\sqrt{s} = 1.8$ TeV using $70 pb^{-1}$ of data collected with the D\O detector at the Fermilab Tevatron in 1994--1996. If they exist, virtual heavy pointlike Dirac monopoles could rescatter pairs of nearly real photons into this final state via a box diagram. We observe no excess of events above background, and set lower 95% C.L. limits of $610, 870, or 1580 GeV/c^2$ on the mass of a spin 0, 1/2, or 1 Dirac monopole.Comment: 12 pages, 4 figure

The Dijet Mass Spectrum and a Search for Quark Compositeness in bar{p}p Collisions at sqrt{s} = 1.8 TeV

Using the DZero detector at the 1.8 TeV pbarp Fermilab Tevatron collider, we have measured the inclusive dijet mass spectrum in the central pseudorapidity region |eta_jet| < 1.0 for dijet masses greater than 200 Gev/c^2. We have also measured the ratio of spectra sigma(|eta_jet| < 0.5)/sigma(0.5 < |eta_jet| < 1.0). The order alpha_s^3 QCD predictions are in good agreement with the data and we rule out models of quark compositeness with a contact interaction scale < 2.4 TeV at the 95% confidence level.Comment: 11 pages, 4 figures, 2 tables, submitted to Phys. Rev. Let