A Machine Learning Trainable Model to Assess the Accuracy of Probabilistic Record Linkage

Record linkage (RL) is the process of identifying and linking data that relates to the same physical entity across multiple heterogeneous data sources. Deterministic linkage methods rely on the presence of common uniquely identifying attributes across all sources while probabilistic approaches use non-unique attributes and calculates similarity indexes for pair wise comparisons. A key component of record linkage is accuracy assessment — the process of manually verifying and validating matched pairs to further refine linkage parameters and increase its overall effectiveness. This process however is time-consuming and impractical when applied to large administrative data sources where millions of records must be linked. Additionally, it is potentially biased as the gold standard used is often the reviewer’s intuition. In this paper, we present an approach for assessing and refining the accuracy of probabilistic linkage based on different supervised machine learning methods (decision trees, naïve Bayes, logistic regression, random forest, linear support vector machines and gradient boosted trees). We used data sets extracted from huge Brazilian socioeconomic and public health care data sources. These models were evaluated using receiver operating characteristic plots, sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive values collected from a 10-fold cross-validation method. Results show that logistic regression outperforms other classifiers and enables the creation of a generalized, very accurate model to validate linkage results

Non-invasive assessment of peripheral arterial disease: Automated ankle brachial index measurement and pulse volume analysis compared to duplex scan

Objectives: This cross-sectional study aimed to individually and cumulatively compare sensitivity and specificity of the (1) ankle brachial index and (2) pulse volume waveform analysis recorded by the same automated device, with the presence or absence of peripheral arterial disease being verified by ultrasound duplex scan. Methods: Patients (n=205) referred for lower limb arterial assessment underwent ankle brachial index measurement and pulse volume waveform recording using volume plethysmography, followed by ultrasound duplex scan. The presence of peripheral arterial disease was recorded if ankle brachial index 50% was evident with ultrasound duplex scan. Outcome measure was agreement between the measured ankle brachial index and interpretation of pulse volume waveform for peripheral arterial disease diagnosis, using ultrasound duplex scan as the reference standard. Results: Sensitivity of ankle brachial index was 79%, specificity 91% and overall accuracy 88%. Pulse volume waveform sensitivity was 97%, specificity 81% and overall accuracy 85%. The combined sensitivity of ankle brachial index and pulse volume waveform was 100%, specificity 76% and overall accuracy 85%. Conclusion: Combining these two diagnostic modalities within one device provided a highly accurate method of ruling out peripheral arterial disease, which could be utilised in primary care to safely reduce unnecessary secondary care referrals

The effects of laryngeal mask airway passage simulation training on the acquisition of undergraduate clinical skills: a randomised controlled trial

Background\ud Effective use of the laryngeal mask airway (LMA) requires learning proper insertion technique in normal patients undergoing routine surgical procedures. However, there is a move towards simulation training for learning practical clinical skills, such as LMA placement. The evidence linking different amounts of mannequin simulation training to the undergraduate clinical skill of LMA placement in real patients is limited. The purpose of this study was to compare the effectiveness in vivo of two LMA placement simulation courses of different durations. \ud \ud Methods\ud Medical students (n = 126) enrolled in a randomised controlled trial. Seventy-eight of these students completed the trial. The control group (n = 38) received brief mannequin training while the intervention group (n = 40) received additional more intensive mannequin training as part of which they repeated LMA insertion until they were proficient. The anaesthetists supervising LMA placements in real patients rated the participants' performance on assessment forms. Participants completed a self-assessment questionnaire. \ud \ud Results\ud Additional mannequin training was not associated with improved performance (37% of intervention participants received an overall placement rating of > 3/5 on their first patient compared to 48% of the control group, $X^2$ = 0.81, p = 0.37). The agreement between the participants and their instructors in terms of LMA placement success rates was poor to fair. Participants reported that mannequins were poor at mimicking reality. \ud \ud Conclusions\ud The results suggest that the value of extended mannequin simulation training in the case of LMA placement is limited. Educators considering simulation for the training of practical skills should reflect on the extent to which the in vitro simulation mimics the skill required and the degree of difficulty of the procedure. \ud \u

Inhibition of Expression in Escherichia coli of a Virulence Regulator MglB of Francisella tularensis Using External Guide Sequence Technology

External guide sequences (EGSs) have successfully been used to inhibit expression of target genes at the post-transcriptional level in both prokaryotes and eukaryotes. We previously reported that EGS accessible and cleavable sites in the target RNAs can rapidly be identified by screening random EGS (rEGS) libraries. Here the method of screening rEGS libraries and a partial RNase T1 digestion assay were used to identify sites accessible to EGSs in the mRNA of a global virulence regulator MglB from Francisella tularensis, a Gram-negative pathogenic bacterium. Specific EGSs were subsequently designed and their activities in terms of the cleavage of mglB mRNA by RNase P were tested in vitro and in vivo. EGS73, EGS148, and EGS155 in both stem and M1 EGS constructs induced mglB mRNA cleavage in vitro. Expression of stem EGS73 and EGS155 in Escherichia coli resulted in significant reduction of the mglB mRNA level coded for the F. tularensis mglB gene inserted in those cells

A risk profile for identifying community-dwelling elderly with a highrisk of recurrent falling: results of a 3-year prospective study

Introduction: The aim of the prospective study reported here was to develop a risk profile that can be used to identify community-dwelling elderly at a high risk of recurrent falling. Materials and methods: The study was designed as a 3-year prospective cohort study. A total of 1365 community-dwelling persons, aged 65 years and older, of the population-based Longitudinal Aging Study Amsterdam participated in the study. During an interview in 1995/1996, physical, cognitive, emotional and social aspects of functioning were assessed. A follow-up on the number of falls and fractures was conducted during a 3-year period using fall calendars that participants filled out weekly. Recurrent fallers were identified as those who fell at least twice within a 6-month period during the 3-year follow-up. Results: The incidence of recurrent falls at the 3-year follow-up point was 24.9% in women and 24.4% in men. Of the respondents, 5.5% reported a total of 87 fractures that resulted from a fall, including 20 hip fractures, 21 wrist fractures and seven humerus fractures. Recurrent fallers were more prone to have a fall-related fracture than those who were not defined as recurrent fallers (11.9% vs. 3.4%; OR: 3.8; 95% CI: 2.3-6.1). Backward logistic regression analysis identified the following predictors in the risk profile for recurrent falling: two or more previous falls, dizziness, functional limitations, weak grip strength, low body weight, fear of falling, the presence of dogs/cats in the household, a high educational level, drinking 18 or more alcoholic consumptions per week and two interaction terms (high educationx18 or more alcohol consumptions per week and two or more previous falls x fear of falling) (AUC=0.71). Discussion: At a cut-off point of 5 on the total risk score (range 0-30), the model predicted recurrent falling with a sensitivity of 59% and a specificity of 71%. At a cut-off point of 10, the sensitivity and specificity were 31% and 92%, respectively. A risk profile including nine predictors that can easily be assessed seems to be a useful tool for the identification of community-dwelling elderly with a high risk of recurrent falling. © International Osteoporosis Foundation and National Osteoporosis Foundation 2006

Social Determinants of Community Health Services Utilization among the Users in China: A 4-Year Cross-Sectional Study

Background To identify social factors determining the frequency of community health service (CHS) utilization among CHS users in China. Methods Nationwide cross-sectional surveys were conducted in 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2011. A total of 86,116 CHS visitors selected from 35 cities were interviewed. Descriptive analysis and multinomial logistic regression analysis were employed to analyze characteristics of CHS users, frequency of CHS utilization, and the socio-demographic and socio-economic factors influencing frequency of CHS utilization. Results Female and senior CHS clients were more likely to make 3–5 and ≥6 CHS visits (as opposed to 1–2 visits) than male and young clients, respectively. CHS clients with higher education were less frequent users than individuals with primary education or less in 2008 and 2009; in later surveys, CHS clients with higher education were the more frequent users. The association between frequent CHS visits and family income has changed significantly between 2008 and 2011. In 2011, income status did not have a discernible effect on the likelihood of making ≥6 CHS visits, and it only had a slight effect on making 3–5 CHS visits. Conclusion CHS may play an important role in providing primary health care to meet the demands of vulnerable populations in China. Over time, individuals with higher education are increasingly likely to make frequent CHS visits than individuals with primary school education or below. The gap in frequency of CHS utilization among different economic income groups decreased from 2008 to 2011

The Diabetes Manual trial protocol – a cluster randomized controlled trial of a self-management intervention for type 2 diabetes [ISRCTN06315411]

Background The Diabetes Manual is a type 2 diabetes self-management programme based upon the clinically effective 'Heart Manual'. The 12 week programme is a complex intervention theoretically underpinned by self-efficacy theory. It is a one to one intervention meeting United Kingdom requirements for structured diabetes-education and is delivered within routine primary care. Methods/design In a two-group cluster randomized controlled trial, GP practices are allocated by computer minimisation to an intervention group or a six-month deferred intervention group. We aim to recruit 250 participants from 50 practices across central England. Eligibility criteria are adults able to undertake the programme with type 2 diabetes, not taking insulin, with HbA1c over 8% (first 12 months) and following an agreed protocol change over 7% (months 13 to 18). Following randomisation, intervention nurses receive two-day training and delivered the Diabetes Manual programme to participants. Deferred intervention nurses receive the training following six-month follow-up. Primary outcome is HbA1c with total and HDL cholesterol; blood pressure, body mass index; self-efficacy and quality of life as additional outcomes. Primary analysis is between-group HbA1c differences at 6 months powered to give 80% power to detect a difference in HbA1c of 0.6%. A 12 month cohort analysis will assess maintenance of effect and assess relationship between self-efficacy and outcomes, and a qualitative study is running alongside. Discussion This trial incorporates educational and psychological diabetes interventions into a single programme and assesses both clinical and psychosocial outcomes. The trial will increase our understanding of intervention transferability between conditions, those diabetes related health behaviours that are more or less susceptible to change through efficacy enhancing mechanisms and how this impacts on clinical outcomes

European Project on Osteoarthritis (EPOSA): methodological challenges in harmonization of existing data from five European population-based cohorts on aging

BackgroundThe European Project on OSteoArthritis (EPOSA), here presented for the first time, is a collaborative study involving five European cohort studies on aging. This project focuses on the personal and societal burden and its determinants of osteoarthritis (OA). The aim of the current report is to describe the purpose of the project, the post harmonization of the cross-national data and methodological challenges related to the harmonization process MethodsThe study includes data from cohort studies in five European countries (Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain and the United Kingdom) on older community-dwelling persons aged ? 59 years. The study design and main characteristics of the five cohort studies are described. Post harmonization algorithms are developed by finding a "common denominator" to merge the datasets and weights are calculated to adjust for differences in age and sex distribution across the datasets. ResultsA harmonized database was developed, consisting of merged data from all participating countries. In total, 10107 persons are included in the harmonized dataset with a mean age of 72.8 years (SD 6.1). The female/male ratio is 53.3/46.7%. Some variables were difficult to harmonize due to differences in wording and categories, differences in classifications and absence of data in some countries. The post harmonization algorithms are described in detail in harmonization guidelines attached to this paper. ConclusionsThere was little evidence of agreement on the use of several core data collection instruments, in particular on the measurement of OA. The heterogeneity of OA definitions hampers comparing prevalence rates of OA, but other research questions can be investigated using high quality harmonized data. By publishing the harmonization guidelines, insight is given into (the interpretation of) all post harmonized data of the EPOSA study. <br/

Intervention planning and modification of the BUMP intervention: a digital intervention for the early detection of raised blood pressure in pregnancy

Background: Hypertensive disorders in pregnancy, particularly pre-eclampsia, pose a substantial health risk for both maternal and foetal outcomes. The BUMP (Blood Pressure Self-Monitoring in Pregnancy) interventions are being tested in a trial. They aim to facilitate the early detection of raised blood pressure through self-monitoring. This article outlines how the self-monitoring interventions in the BUMP trial were developed and modified using the person-based approach to promote engagement and adherence. Methods: Key behavioural challenges associated with blood pressure self-monitoring in pregnancy were identified through synthesising qualitative pilot data and existing evidence, which informed guiding principles for the development process. Social cognitive theory was identified as an appropriate theoretical framework. A testable logic model was developed to illustrate the hypothesised processes of change associated with the intervention. Iterative qualitative feedback from women and staff informed modifications to the participant materials. Results: The evidence synthesis suggested women face challenges integrating self-monitoring into their lives and that adherence is challenging at certain time points in pregnancy (for example, starting maternity leave). Intervention modification included strategies to address adherence but also focussed on modifying outcome expectancies, by providing messages explaining pre-eclampsia and outlining the potential benefits of self-monitoring. Conclusions: With an in-depth understanding of the target population, several methods and approaches to plan and develop interventions specifically relevant to pregnant women were successfully integrated, to address barriers to behaviour change while ensuring they are easy to engage with, persuasive and acceptable