Peer influence in network markets: a theoretical and empirical analysis

Network externalities spur the growth of networks and the adoption of network goods in two ways. First, they make it more attractive to join a network the larger its installed base. Second, they create incentives for network members to actively recruit new members. Despite indications that the latter "peer effect" can be more important for network growth than the installed-base effect, it has so far been largely ignored in the literature. We address this gap using game-theoretical models. When all early adopters can band together to exert peer influence-an assumption that fits, e.g., the case of firms supporting a technical standard-we find that the peer effect induces additional growth of the network by a factor. When, in contrast, individuals exert peer influence in small groups of size n, the increase in network size is by an additive constant-which, for small networks, can amount to a large relative increase. The difference between small, local, personal networks and large, global, anonymous networks arises endogenously from our analysis. Fundamentally, the first type of networks is "tie-reinforcing," the other, "tie-creating". We use survey data from users of the Internet services, Skype and eBay, to illustrate the main logic of our theoretical results. As predicted by the model, we find that the peer effect matters strongly for the network of Skype users-which effectively consists of numerous small sub-networks-but not for that of eBay users. Since many network goods give rise to small, local networks

Prediction of grip and key pinch strength in 978 healthy subjects

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Hand strength is an important independent surrogate parameter to assess outcome and risk of morbidity and mortality. This study aimed to determine the predictive power of cofactors and to predict population-based normative grip and pinch strength.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A representative population survey was used as the basis for prediction analyses (n = 978). Bivariate relationships between grip/pinch strengths of the dominate hand were explored by means of all relevant mathematical functions to maximize prediction. The resulting best functions were combined into a multivariate regression.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Polynoms (up to the third degree) were the best predictive functions. On the bivariate level, height was best correlated to grip (46.2% explained variance) and pinch strength (37.7% explained variance) in a linear relationship, followed by sex, age, weight, and occupational demand on the hand. Multivariate regression provided predicted values close to the empirical ones explaining 76.6% of the variance for grip strength and 67.7% for pinch strength.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The five easy-to-measure cofactors sex, age, body height, categorized occupational demand on the hand, and body weight provide a highly accurate prediction of normative grip and pinch strength.</p

Mechanisms and consequences of TGF-ß overexpression by podocytes in progressive podocyte disease

In patients with progressive podocyte disease, such as focal segmental glomerulosclerosis (FSGS) and membranous nephropathy, upregulation of transforming growth factor-ß (TGF-ß) is observed in podocytes. Mechanical pressure or biomechanical strain in podocytopathies may cause overexpression of TGF-ß and angiotensin II (Ang II). Oxidative stress induced by Ang II may activate the latent TGF-ß, which then activates Smads and Ras/extracellular signal-regulated kinase (ERK) signaling pathways in podocytes. Enhanced TGF-ß activity in podocytes may lead to thickening of the glomerular basement membrane (GBM) by overproduction of GBM proteins and impaired GBM degradation in podocyte disease. It may also lead to podocyte apoptosis and detachment from the GBM, and epithelial-mesenchymal transition (EMT) of podocytes, initiating the development of glomerulosclerosis. Furthermore, activated TGF-ß/Smad signaling by podocytes may induce connective tissue growth factor and vascular endothelial growth factor overexpression, which could act as a paracrine effector mechanism on mesangial cells to stimulate mesangial matrix synthesis. In proliferative podocytopathies, such as cellular or collapsing FSGS, TGF-ß-induced ERK activation may play a role in podocyte proliferation, possibly via TGF-ß-induced EMT of podocytes. Collectively, these data bring new mechanistic insights into our understanding of the TGF-ß overexpression by podocytes in progressive podocyte disease

Derivation of consistent hard rock (1000<Vs<3000 m/s) GMPEs from surface and down-hole recordings: Analysis of KiK-net data

A key component in seismic hazard assessment is the estimation of ground motion for hard rock sites, either for applications to installations built on this site category, or as an input motion for site response computation. Empirical ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) are the traditional basis for estimating ground motion while VS30 is the basis to account for site conditions. As current GMPEs are poorly constrained for VS30 larger than 1000 m/s, the presently used approach for estimating hazard on hard rock sites consists of “host-to-target” adjustment techniques based on VS30 and κ0 values. The present study investigates alternative methods on the basis of a KiK-net dataset corresponding to stiff and rocky sites with 500 < VS30 < 1350 m/s. The existence of sensor pairs (one at the surface and one in depth) and the availability of P- and S-wave velocity profiles allow deriving two “virtual” datasets associated to outcropping hard rock sites with VS in the range [1000, 3000] m/s with two independent corrections: 1/down-hole recordings modified from within motion to outcropping motion with a depth correction factor, 2/surface recordings deconvolved from their specific site response derived through 1D simulation. GMPEs with simple functional forms are then developed, including a VS30 site term. They lead to consistent and robust hard-rock motion estimates, which prove to be significantly lower than host-to-target adjustment predictions. The difference can reach a factor up to 3–4 beyond 5 Hz for very hard-rock, but decreases for decreasing frequency until vanishing below 2 Hz

Exercise and the Prevention of Oesophageal Cancer (EPOC) study protocol: a randomized controlled trial of exercise versus stretching in males with Barrett's oesophagus

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Chronic gastro-oesophageal reflux disease and excessive body fat are considered principal causes of Barrett's oesophagus (a metaplastic change in the cells lining the oesophagus) and its neoplastic progression, oesophageal adenocarcinoma. Metabolic disturbances including altered levels of obesity-related cytokines, chronic inflammation and insulin resistance have also been associated with oesophageal cancer development, especially in males. Physical activity may have the potential to abrogate metabolic disturbances in males with Barrett's oesophagus and elicit beneficial reductions in body fat and gastro-oesophageal reflux symptoms. Thus, exercise may be an effective intervention in reducing oesophageal adenocarcinoma risk. However, to date this hypothesis remains untested.</p> <p>The 'Exercise and the Prevention of Oesophageal Cancer Study' will determine whether 24 weeks of exercise training will lead to alterations in risk factors or biomarkers for oesophageal adenocarcinoma in males with Barrett's oesophagus. Our primary outcomes are serum concentrations of leptin, adiponectin, tumour necrosis factor-alpha, C-reactive protein and interleukin-6 as well as insulin resistance. Body composition, gastro-oesophageal reflux disease symptoms, cardiovascular fitness and muscular strength will also be assessed as secondary outcomes.</p> <p>Methods/Design</p> <p>A randomized controlled trial of 80 overweight or obese, inactive males with Barrett's oesophagus will be conducted in Brisbane, Australia. Participants will be randomized to an intervention arm (60 minutes of moderate-intensity aerobic and resistance training, five days per week) or a control arm (45 minutes of stretching, five days per week) for 24 weeks. Primary and secondary endpoints will be measured at baseline (week 0), midpoint (week 12) and at the end of the intervention (week 24).</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>Due to the increasing incidence and very high mortality associated with oesophageal adenocarcinoma, interventions effective in preventing the progression of Barrett's oesophagus are urgently needed. We propose that exercise may be successful in reducing oesophageal adenocarcinoma risk. This primary prevention trial will also provide information on whether the protective association between physical activity and cancer is causal.</p> <p>Trial Registration</p> <p>ACTRN12609000401257</p

Control of style-of-faulting on spatial pattern of earthquake-triggered landslides

Predictive mapping of susceptibility to earthquake-triggered landslides (ETLs) commonly uses distance to fault as spatial predictor, regardless of style-of-faulting. Here, we examined the hypothesis that the spatial pattern of ETLs is influenced by style-of-faulting based on distance distribution analysis and Fry analysis. The Yingxiu–Beichuan fault (YBF) in China and a huge number of landslides that ruptured and occurred, respectively, during the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake permitted this study because the style-of-faulting along the YBF varied from its southern to northern parts (i.e. mainly thrust-slip in the southern part, oblique-slip in the central part and mainly strike-slip in the northern part). On the YBF hanging-wall, ETLs at 4.4–4.7 and 10.3–11.5 km from the YBF are likely associated with strike- and thrust-slips, respectively. On the southern and central parts of the hanging-wall, ETLs at 7.5–8 km from the YBF are likely associated with oblique-slips. These findings indicate that the spatial pattern of ETLs is influenced by style-of-faulting. Based on knowledge about the style-of-faulting and by using evidential belief functions to create a predictor map based on proximity to faults, we obtained higher landslide prediction accuracy than by using unclassified faults. When distance from unclassified parts of the YBF is used as predictor, the prediction accuracy is 80%; when distance from parts of the YBF, classified according to style-of-faulting, is used as predictor, the prediction accuracy is 93%. Therefore, mapping and classification of faults and proper spatial representation of fault control on occurrence of ETLs are important in predictive mapping of susceptibility to ETLs