Predicting consumer biomass, size-structure, production, catch potential, responses to fishing and associated uncertainties in the world's marine ecosystems

Existing estimates of fish and consumer biomass in the world’s oceans are disparate. This creates uncertainty about the roles of fish and other consumers in biogeochemical cycles and ecosystem processes, the extent of human and environmental impacts and fishery potential. We develop and use a size-based macroecological model to assess the effects of parameter uncertainty on predicted consumer biomass, production and distribution. Resulting uncertainty is large (e.g. median global biomass 4.9 billion tonnes for consumers weighing 1 g to 1000 kg; 50% uncertainty intervals of 2 to 10.4 billion tonnes; 90% uncertainty intervals of 0.3 to 26.1 billion tonnes) and driven primarily by uncertainty in trophic transfer efficiency and its relationship with predator-prey body mass ratios. Even the upper uncertainty intervals for global predictions of consumer biomass demonstrate the remarkable scarcity of marine consumers, with less than one part in 30 million by volume of the global oceans comprising tissue of macroscopic animals. Thus the apparently high densities of marine life seen in surface and coastal waters and frequently visited abundance hotspots will likely give many in society a false impression of the abundance of marine animals. Unexploited baseline biomass predictions from the simple macroecological model were used to calibrate a more complex size- and trait-based model to estimate fisheries yield and impacts. Yields are highly dependent on baseline biomass and fisheries selectivity. Predicted global sustainable fisheries yield increases ≈4 fold when smaller individuals (< 20 cm from species of maximum mass < 1kg) are targeted in all oceans, but the predicted yields would rarely be accessible in practice and this fishing strategy leads to the collapse of larger species if fishing mortality rates on different size classes cannot be decoupled. Our analyses show that models with minimal parameter demands that are based on a few established ecological principles can support equitable analysis and comparison of diverse ecosystems. The analyses provide insights into the effects of parameter uncertainty on global biomass and production estimates, which have yet to be achieved with complex models, and will therefore help to highlight priorities for future research and data collection. However, the focus on simple model structures and global processes means that non-phytoplankton primary production and several groups, structures and processes of ecological and conservation interest are not represented. Consequently, our simple models become increasingly less useful than more complex alternatives when addressing questions about food web structure and function, biodiversity, resilience and human impacts at smaller scales and for areas closer to coasts

2015 ACVIM Small Animal Consensus Statement on Seizure Management in Dogs

This report represents a scientific and working clinical consensus statement on seizure management in dogs based on current literature and clinical expertise. The goal was to establish guidelines for a predetermined, concise, and logical sequential approach to chronic seizure management starting with seizure identification and diagnosis (not included in this report), reviewing decision‐making, treatment strategies, focusing on issues related to chronic antiepileptic drug treatment response and monitoring, and guidelines to enhance patient response and quality of life. Ultimately, we hope to provide a foundation for ongoing and future clinical epilepsy research in veterinary medicine

People of the British Isles: preliminary analysis of genotypes and surnames in a UK control population

There is a great deal of interest in fine scale population structure in the UK, both as a signature of historical immigration events and because of the effect population structure may have on disease association studies. Although population structure appears to have a minor impact on the current generation of genome-wide association studies, it is likely to play a significant part in the next generation of studies designed to search for rare variants. A powerful way of detecting such structure is to control and document carefully the provenance of the samples involved. Here we describe the collection of a cohort of rural UK samples (The People of the British Isles), aimed at providing a well-characterised UK control population that can be used as a resource by the research community as well as providing fine scale genetic information on the British population. So far, some 4,000 samples have been collected, the majority of which fit the criteria of coming from a rural area and having all four grandparents from approximately the same area. Analysis of the first 3,865 samples that have been geocoded indicates that 75% have a mean distance between grandparental places of birth of 37.3km, and that about 70% of grandparental places of birth can be classed as rural. Preliminary genotyping of 1,057 samples demonstrates the value of these samples for investigating fine scale population structure within the UK, and shows how this can be enhanced by the use of surnames

Environmental differences between sites control the diet and nutrition of the carnivorous plant Drosera rotundifolia

Background and aims: Carnivorous plants are sensitive to small changes in resource availability, but few previous studies have examined how differences in nutrient and prey availability affect investment in and the benefit of carnivory. We studied the impact of site-level differences in resource availability on ecophysiological traits of carnivory for Drosera rotundifolia L. Methods: We measured prey availability, investment in carnivory (leaf stickiness), prey capture and diet of plants growing in two bogs with differences in N deposition and plant available N: Cors Fochno (0.62 g m−2 yr.−1, 353 μg l−1), Whixall Moss (1.37 g m−2 yr.−1, 1505 μg l−1). The total N amount per plant and the contributions of prey/root N to the plants’ N budget were calculated using a single isotope natural abundance method. Results: Plants at Whixall Moss invested less in carnivory, were less likely to capture prey, and were less reliant on prey-derived N (25.5% compared with 49.4%). Actual prey capture did not differ between sites. Diet composition differed – Cors Fochno plants captured 62% greater proportions of Diptera. Conclusions: Our results show site-level differences in plant diet and nutrition consistent with differences in resource availability. Similarity in actual prey capture may be explained by differences in leaf stickiness and prey abundance

Recovery of a temperate reef assemblage in a marine protected area following the exclusion of towed demersal fishing.

Marine Protected Areas MPA have been widely used over the last 2 decades to address human impacts on marine habitats within an ecosystem management context. Few studies have quantified recovery of temperate rocky reef communities following the cessation of scallop dredging or demersal trawling. This is critical information for the future management of these habitats to contribute towards conservation and fisheries targets. The Lyme Bay MPA, in south west UK, has excluded towed demersal fishing gear from 206 km(2) of sensitive reef habitat using a Statutory Instrument since July 2008. To assess benthic recovery in this MPA we used a flying video array to survey macro epi-benthos annually from 2008 to 2011. 4 treatments (the New Closure, previously voluntarily Closed Controls and Near or Far Open to fishing Controls) were sampled to test a recovery hypothesis that was defined as 'the New Closure becoming more similar to the Closed Controls and less similar to the Open Controls'. Following the cessation of towed demersal fishing, within three years positive responses were observed for species richness, total abundance, assemblage composition and seven of 13 indicator taxa. Definitive evidence of recovery was noted for species richness and three of the indicator taxa (Pentapora fascialis, Phallusia mammillata and Pecten maximus). While it is hoped that MPAs, which exclude anthropogenic disturbance, will allow functional restoration of goods and services provided by benthic communities, it is an unknown for temperate reef systems. Establishing the likely timescales for restoration is key to future marine management. We demonstrate the early stages of successful recruitment and link these to the potential wider ecosystem benefits including those to commercial fisheries

Transformations structurelles et essor du métal

The role of multiattribute utility theory is first placed in the overall context of decision analysis. Then an approach that has proven useful in adapting the theory to be a practical tool is illustrated. Several cases where multiattribute utility has been used are briefly discussed. These include both operational and strategic problems involving, for example, siting of large-scale facilities (airports, power plants), medical treatment, the structuring corporate objectives, environmental management, and personal investment strategy

Accounting fraud, business failure and creative auditing: A microanalysis of the strange case of the Sunbeam Corporation

This article closely examines the Sunbeam Corporation’s path to failure and explores the reasons for its singularity. From the analysis of US fraud cases included in the UCLA-LoPucki Bankruptcy Research Database, this corporate case appears as an outlier. For Sunbeam, the time-lapse between fraud disclosure and its final bankruptcy is the longest of the entire sample; it is unique because of its length. This article uses a historical microanalysis to evaluate different hypotheses about the Sunbeam Corporation’s path to failure. The relationships between acquisitions and fraud, ‘scapegoat dynamics’ and ‘creative auditing’ are identified as the most relevant issues to be examined against a changing institutional context. The resulting reconstruction of the events provides unexpected insights and recommendations for future research on auditing and accounting fraud

Diagnostic reliability of magnetic resonance imaging for central nervous system syndromes in systemic lupus erythematosus: a prospective cohort study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Previous studies of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) as a diagnostic tool for central nervous system (CNS) syndromes in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) contained several limitations such as study design, number of enrolled patients, and definition of CNS syndromes. We overcame these problems and statistically evaluated the diagnostic values of abnormal MRI signals and their chronological changes in CNS syndromes of SLE.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We prospectively studied 191 patients with SLE, comparing those with (n = 57) and without (n = 134) CNS syndrome. CNS syndromes were characterized using the American College of Rheumatology case definitions.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Any abnormal MRI signals were more frequently observed in subjects in the CNS group (n = 25) than in the non-CNS group (n = 32) [relative risk (RR), 1.7; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.1-2.7; <it>p </it>= 0.016] and the positive and negative predictive values for the diagnosis of CNS syndrome were 42% and 76%, respectively. Large abnormal MRI signals (ø ≥ 10 mm) were seen only in the CNS group (n = 7; RR, 3.7; CI, 2.9-4.7; <it>p </it>= 0.0002), whereas small abnormal MRI signals (ø < 10 mm) were seen in both groups with no statistical difference. Large signals always paralleled clinical outcome (<it>p </it>= 0.029), whereas small signals did not (<it>p </it>= 1.000).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Abnormal MRI signals, which showed statistical associations with CNS syndrome, had insufficient diagnostic values. A large MRI signal was, however, useful as a diagnostic and surrogate marker for CNS syndrome of SLE, although it was less common.</p