Negative responses of highland pines to anthropogenic activities in inland Spain: a palaeoecological perspective

Palaeoecological evidence indicates that highland pines were dominant in extensive areas of the mountains of Central and Northern Iberia during the first half of the Holocene. However, following several millennia of anthropogenic pressure, their natural ranges are now severely reduced. Although pines have been frequently viewed as first-stage successional species responding positively to human disturbance, some recent palaeobotanical work has proposed fire disturbance and human deforestation as the main drivers of this vegetation turnover. To assess the strength of the evidence for this hypothesis and to identify other possible explanations for this scenario, we review the available information on past vegetation change in the mountains of northern inland Iberia. We have chosen data from several sites that offer good chronological control, including palynological records with microscopic charcoal data and sites with plant macro- and megafossil occurrence. We conclude that although the available long-term data are still fragmentary and that new methods are needed for a better understanding of the ecological history of Iberia, fire events and human activities (probably modulated by climate) have triggered the pine demise at different locations and different temporal scales. In addition, all palaeoxylological, palynological and charcoal results obtained so far are fully compatible with a rapid human-induced ecological change that could have caused a range contraction of highland pines in western Iberia

The Evolution of Compact Binary Star Systems

We review the formation and evolution of compact binary stars consisting of white dwarfs (WDs), neutron stars (NSs), and black holes (BHs). Binary NSs and BHs are thought to be the primary astrophysical sources of gravitational waves (GWs) within the frequency band of ground-based detectors, while compact binaries of WDs are important sources of GWs at lower frequencies to be covered by space interferometers (LISA). Major uncertainties in the current understanding of properties of NSs and BHs most relevant to the GW studies are discussed, including the treatment of the natal kicks which compact stellar remnants acquire during the core collapse of massive stars and the common envelope phase of binary evolution. We discuss the coalescence rates of binary NSs and BHs and prospects for their detections, the formation and evolution of binary WDs and their observational manifestations. Special attention is given to AM CVn-stars -- compact binaries in which the Roche lobe is filled by another WD or a low-mass partially degenerate helium-star, as these stars are thought to be the best LISA verification binary GW sources.Comment: 105 pages, 18 figure

Development of a Prediction Model for COVID-19 Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome in Patients With Rheumatic Diseases: Results From the Global Rheumatology Alliance Registry

OBJECTIVE: Some patients with rheumatic diseases might be at higher risk for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). We aimed to develop a prediction model for COVID-19 ARDS in this population and to create a simple risk score calculator for use in clinical settings. METHODS: Data were derived from the COVID-19 Global Rheumatology Alliance Registry from March 24, 2020, to May 12, 2021. Seven machine learning classifiers were trained on ARDS outcomes using 83 variables obtained at COVID-19 diagnosis. Predictive performance was assessed in a US test set and was validated in patients from four countries with independent registries using area under the curve (AUC), accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity. A simple risk score calculator was developed using a regression model incorporating the most influential predictors from the best performing classifier. RESULTS: The study included 8633 patients from 74 countries, of whom 523 (6%) had ARDS. Gradient boosting had the highest mean AUC (0.78; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.67-0.88) and was considered the top performing classifier. Ten predictors were identified as key risk factors and were included in a regression model. The regression model that predicted ARDS with 71% (95% CI: 61%-83%) sensitivity in the test set, and with sensitivities ranging from 61% to 80% in countries with independent registries, was used to develop the risk score calculator. CONCLUSION: We were able to predict ARDS with good sensitivity using information readily available at COVID-19 diagnosis. The proposed risk score calculator has the potential to guide risk stratification for treatments, such as monoclonal antibodies, that have potential to reduce COVID-19 disease progression

Melatonin protects rats from radiotherapy-induced small intestine toxicity

Radiotherapy-induced gut toxicity is among the most prevalent dose-limiting toxicities following radiotherapy. Prevention of radiation enteropathy requires protection of the small intestine. However, despite the prevalence and burden of this pathology, there are currently no effective treatments for radiotherapy-induced gut toxicity, and this pathology remains unclear. The present study aimed to investigate the changes induced in the rat small intestine after external irradiation of the tongue, and to explore the potential radio-protective effects of melatonin gel. Male Wistar rats were subjected to irradiation of their tongues with an X-Ray YXLON Y.Tu 320-D03 irradiator, receiving a dose of 7.5 Gy/day for 5 days. For 21 days post-irradiation, rats were treated with 45 mg/day melatonin gel or vehicle, by local application into their mouths. Our results showed that mitochondrial oxidative stress, bioenergetic impairment, and subsequent NLRP3 inflammasome activation were involved in the development of radiotherapy-induced gut toxicity. Oral treatment with melatonin gel had a protective effect in the small intestine, which was associated with mitochondrial protection and, consequently, with a reduced inflammatory response, blunting the NF-κB/NLRP3 inflammasome signaling activation. Thus, rats treated with melatonin gel showed reduced intestinal apoptosis, relieving mucosal dysfunction and facilitating intestinal mucosa recovery. Our findings suggest that oral treatment with melatonin gel may be a potential preventive therapy for radiotherapy-induced gut toxicity in cancer patients.This study was partially supported by grant no. SAF2009-14037 from the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitivity (MINECO), GREIB.PT_2010_04 from the CEIBiotic Program of the University of Granada, Spain, and CTS-101 from the Consejería de Innovación, Ciencia y Empresa, Junta de Andalucía, Spain

Worldwide comparison of survival from childhood leukaemia for 1995–2009, by subtype, age, and sex (CONCORD-2): a population-based study of individual data for 89 828 children from 198 registries in 53 countries

Background Global inequalities in access to health care are reflected in differences in cancer survival. The CONCORD programme was designed to assess worldwide differences and trends in population-based cancer survival. In this population-based study, we aimed to estimate survival inequalities globally for several subtypes of childhood leukaemia. Methods Cancer registries participating in CONCORD were asked to submit tumour registrations for all children aged 0-14 years who were diagnosed with leukaemia between Jan 1, 1995, and Dec 31, 2009, and followed up until Dec 31, 2009. Haematological malignancies were defined by morphology codes in the International Classification of Diseases for Oncology, third revision. We excluded data from registries from which the data were judged to be less reliable, or included only lymphomas, and data from countries in which data for fewer than ten children were available for analysis. We also excluded records because of a missing date of birth, diagnosis, or last known vital status. We estimated 5-year net survival (ie, the probability of surviving at least 5 years after diagnosis, after controlling for deaths from other causes [background mortality]) for children by calendar period of diagnosis (1995-99, 2000-04, and 2005-09), sex, and age at diagnosis (< 1, 1-4, 5-9, and 10-14 years, inclusive) using appropriate life tables. We estimated age-standardised net survival for international comparison of survival trends for precursor-cell acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) and acute myeloid leukaemia (AML). Findings We analysed data from 89 828 children from 198 registries in 53 countries. During 1995-99, 5-year agestandardised net survival for all lymphoid leukaemias combined ranged from 10.6% (95% CI 3.1-18.2) in the Chinese registries to 86.8% (81.6-92.0) in Austria. International differences in 5-year survival for childhood leukaemia were still large as recently as 2005-09, when age-standardised survival for lymphoid leukaemias ranged from 52.4% (95% CI 42.8-61.9) in Cali, Colombia, to 91.6% (89.5-93.6) in the German registries, and for AML ranged from 33.3% (18.9-47.7) in Bulgaria to 78.2% (72.0-84.3) in German registries. Survival from precursor-cell ALL was very close to that of all lymphoid leukaemias combined, with similar variation. In most countries, survival from AML improved more than survival from ALL between 2000-04 and 2005-09. Survival for each type of leukaemia varied markedly with age: survival was highest for children aged 1-4 and 5-9 years, and lowest for infants (younger than 1 year). There was no systematic difference in survival between boys and girls. Interpretation Global inequalities in survival from childhood leukaemia have narrowed with time but remain very wide for both ALL and AML. These results provide useful information for health policy makers on the effectiveness of health-care systems and for cancer policy makers to reduce inequalities in childhood survival