Scenario analysis can guide aquaculture planning to meet sustainable future production goals

Marine aquaculture holds great promise for meeting increasing demand for healthy protein that is sustainably produced, but reaching necessary production levels will be challenging. The ecosystem approach to aquaculture is a framework for sustainable aquaculture development that prioritizes multiple-stakeholder participation and spatial planning. These types of approaches have been increasingly used to help guide sustainable, persistent, and equitable aquaculture planning, but most countries have difficulties in setting or meeting longer-term development goals. Scenario analysis (SA) for future planning uses similar approaches and can complement holistic methods, such as the ecosystem approach to aquaculture framework, by providing a temporal analogue to the spatially robust design. Here we define the SA approach to planning in aquaculture, outline how SA can benefit aquaculture planning, and review how this tool is already being used. We track the use of planning tools in the 20 International Council for the Exploration of the Sea member nations, with particular attention given to Norway’s development goals to 2050. We conclude that employing a combination of an ecosystem framework with scenario analyses may help identify the scale of development aquaculture goals over time, aid in evaluating the feasibility of the desired outcomes, and highlight potential social-ecological conflicts and trade-offs that may otherwise be overlooked.Versión del editor2,27

Sleep phase and gastro-oesophageal reflux in infants at possible risk of SIDS.

The association between gastro-oesophageal reflux and sleep state in 24 infants with confirmed or suspected gastro-oesophageal reflux was studied by monitoring both the pH in the lower oesophagus and polygraphic tracings made during sleep at night. Gastro-oesophageal reflux during the night was confirmed in 20 infants. Three hundred and sixteen precipitous drops of more than one unit of pH were recorded during the studies, 186 during periods of wakefulness. Of 130 drops in pH during sleep, 62 (48%) began during active sleep and 62 during indeterminate sleep. Of the latter, 56 (90%) were associated with brief gross body movements. Only five of the drops in pH (4%) began during quiet sleep. Gastro-oesophageal reflux stopped during active sleep on 56 occasions (43%), in indeterminate sleep in 62 (47%), and in quiet sleep in 12 (9%). Episodes of gastro-oesophageal reflux starting or ending in quiet sleep were uncommon. The occurrence of gastro-oesophageal reflux during active sleep may partly explain why reflux during sleep is a risk factor for pulmonary disease

Floristics and biogeography of vegetation in seasonally dry tropical regions

To provide an inter-continental overview of the floristics and biogeography of drought-adapted tropical vegetation formations, we compiled a dataset of inventory plots in South America (n=93), Africa (n=84), and Asia (n=92) from savannas (subject to fire), seasonally dry tropical forests (not generally subject to fire), and moist forests (no fire). We analysed floristic similarity across vegetation formations within and between continents. Our dataset strongly suggests that different formations tend to be strongly clustered floristically by continent, and that among continents, superficially similar vegetation formations (e.g. savannas) are floristically highly dissimilar. Neotropical moist forest, savanna and seasonally dry tropical forest are floristically distinct, but elsewhere there is no clear floristic division of savanna and seasonally dry tropical forest, though moist and dry formations are separate. We suggest that because of their propensity to burn, many formations termed “dry forest” in Africa and Asia are best considered as savannas. The floristic differentiation of similar vegetation formations from different continents suggests that cross-continental generalisations of the ecology, biology and conservation of savannas and seasonally dry tropical forests may be difficult