Complex Random Energy Model: Zeros and Fluctuations

The partition function of the random energy model at inverse temperature $\beta$ is a sum of random exponentials $Z_N(\beta)=\sum_{k=1}^N \exp(\beta \sqrt{n} X_k)$, where $X_1,X_2,...$ are independent real standard normal random variables (= random energies), and $n=\log N$. We study the large $N$ limit of the partition function viewed as an analytic function of the complex variable $\beta$. We identify the asymptotic structure of complex zeros of the partition function confirming and extending predictions made in the theoretical physics literature. We prove limit theorems for the random partition function at complex $\beta$, both on the logarithmic scale and on the level of limiting distributions. Our results cover also the case of the sums of independent identically distributed random exponentials with any given correlations between the real and imaginary parts of the random exponent.Comment: 31 pages, 1 figur

Risk factors for hepatitis C virus infection among blood donors in southern Brazil: a case-control study

BACKGROUND: In Brazil, it is estimated that between 2.5 and 4.9% of the general population present anti-hepatitis C virus (HCV) antibodies, which corresponds to as many as 3.9 to 7.6 million chronic carriers. Chronic liver disease is associated with HCV infection in 20% to 58% of the Brazilian patients. The objective of this case-control study was to investigate the risk factors for presence of anti-HCV antibody in blood donors in southern Brazil. METHODS: One hundred and seventy eight blood donors with two positive ELISA results for anti-HCV were cases, and 356 controls tested negative. A standardized questionnaire was used to collect data concerning demographic and socioeconomic aspects, history of previous hepatitis infection, social and sexual behaviors, and number of donations. Variables were grouped into sets of hierarchical categories. Cases and controls were compared using logistic regression, odds ratios, and 95% confidence intervals. The statistical significance of the associations was assessed through likelihood ratio tests based on a P value < 0.05. RESULTS: The prevalence of anti-HCV among blood donors was 1.1%. Most of the donors were white and males. In the multivariate analysis, independent predictors of anti-HCV positivity were: intravenous drug use, blood transfusion >10 years earlier, having had two to four sexually transmitted diseases, incarceration, tattooing, sex with a hepatitis B or C virus carrier or with intravenous drug users. CONCLUSION: Intravenous drug use, blood transfusion, and tattooing were the main risk factors for anti-HCV positivity among blood donors from southern Brazil, but sexual HCV transmission should also be considered

Syphilis at the Crossroad of Phylogenetics and Paleopathology

The origin of syphilis is still controversial. Different research avenues explore its fascinating history. Here we employed a new integrative approach, where paleopathology and molecular analyses are combined. As an exercise to test the validity of this approach we examined different hypotheses on the origin of syphilis and other human diseases caused by treponemes (treponematoses). Initially, we constructed a worldwide map containing all accessible reports on palaeopathological evidences of treponematoses before Columbus's return to Europe. Then, we selected the oldest ones to calibrate the time of the most recent common ancestor of Treponema pallidum subsp. pallidum, T. pallidum subsp. endemicum and T. pallidum subsp. pertenue in phylogenetic analyses with 21 genetic regions of different T. pallidum strains previously reported. Finally, we estimated the treponemes' evolutionary rate to test three scenarios: A) if treponematoses accompanied human evolution since Homo erectus; B) if venereal syphilis arose very recently from less virulent strains caught in the New World about 500 years ago, and C) if it emerged in the Americas between 16,500 and 5,000 years ago. Two of the resulting evolutionary rates were unlikely and do not explain the existent osseous evidence. Thus, treponematoses, as we know them today, did not emerge with H. erectus, nor did venereal syphilis appear only five centuries ago. However, considering 16,500 years before present (yBP) as the time of the first colonization of the Americas, and approximately 5,000 yBP as the oldest probable evidence of venereal syphilis in the world, we could not entirely reject hypothesis C. We confirm that syphilis seems to have emerged in this time span, since the resulting evolutionary rate is compatible with those observed in other bacteria. In contrast, if the claims of precolumbian venereal syphilis outside the Americas are taken into account, the place of origin remains unsolved. Finally, the endeavor of joining paleopathology and phylogenetics proved to be a fruitful and promising approach for the study of infectious diseases

Primary biliary cirrhosis

Primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) is an immune-mediated chronic cholestatic liver disease with a slowly progressive course. Without treatment, most patients eventually develop fibrosis and cirrhosis of the liver and may need liver transplantation in the late stage of disease. PBC primarily affects women (female preponderance 9–10:1) with a prevalence of up to 1 in 1,000 women over 40 years of age. Common symptoms of the disease are fatigue and pruritus, but most patients are asymptomatic at first presentation. The diagnosis is based on sustained elevation of serum markers of cholestasis, i.e., alkaline phosphatase and gamma-glutamyl transferase, and the presence of serum antimitochondrial antibodies directed against the E2 subunit of the pyruvate dehydrogenase complex. Histologically, PBC is characterized by florid bile duct lesions with damage to biliary epithelial cells, an often dense portal inflammatory infiltrate and progressive loss of small intrahepatic bile ducts. Although the insight into pathogenetic aspects of PBC has grown enormously during the recent decade and numerous genetic, environmental, and infectious factors have been disclosed which may contribute to the development of PBC, the precise pathogenesis remains enigmatic. Ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) is currently the only FDA-approved medical treatment for PBC. When administered at adequate doses of 13–15 mg/kg/day, up to two out of three patients with PBC may have a normal life expectancy without additional therapeutic measures. The mode of action of UDCA is still under discussion, but stimulation of impaired hepatocellular and cholangiocellular secretion, detoxification of bile, and antiapoptotic effects may represent key mechanisms. One out of three patients does not adequately respond to UDCA therapy and may need additional medical therapy and/or liver transplantation. This review summarizes current knowledge on the clinical, diagnostic, pathogenetic, and therapeutic aspects of PBC

Opportunity for verbalization does not improve visual change detection performance:A state trace analysis

Evidence suggests that there is a tendency to verbally recode visually-presented information, and that in some cases verbal recoding can boost memory performance. According to multi-component models of working memory, memory performance is increased because task-relevant information is simultaneously maintained in two codes. The possibility of dual encoding is problematic if the goal is to measure capacity for visual information exclusively. To counteract this possibility, articulatory suppression is frequently used with visual change detection tasks specifically to prevent verbalization of visual stimuli. But is this precaution always necessary? There is little reason to believe that concurrent articulation affects performance in typical visual change detection tasks, suggesting that verbal recoding might not be likely to occur in this paradigm, and if not, precautionary articulatory suppression would not always be necessary. We present evidence confirming that articulatory suppression has no discernible effect on performance in a typical visual change-detection task in which abstract patterns are briefly presented. A comprehensive analysis using both descriptive statistics and Bayesian state-trace analysis revealed no evidence for any complex relationship between articulatory suppression and performance that would be consistent with a verbal recoding explanation. Instead, the evidence favors the simpler explanation that verbal strategies were either not deployed in the task or, if they were, were not effective in improving performance, and thus have no influence on visual working memory as measured during visual change detection. We conclude that in visual change detection experiments in which abstract visual stimuli are briefly presented, pre-cautionary articulatory suppression is unnecessary

Clinical symptoms, signs and tests for identification of impending and current water-loss dehydration in older people (Review)

BackgroundThere is evidence that water-loss dehydration is common in older people and associated with many causes of morbidity and mortality.However, it is unclear what clinical symptoms, signs and tests may be used to identify early dehydration in older people, so that support can be mobilised to improve hydration before health and well-being are compromised.ObjectivesTo determine the diagnostic accuracy of state (one time), minimally invasive clinical symptoms, signs and tests to be used as screeningtests for detecting water-loss dehydration in older people by systematically reviewing studies that have measured a reference standard and at least one index test in people aged 65 years and over. Water-loss dehydration was defined primarily as including everyone with either impending or current water-loss dehydration (including all those with serum osmolality ≥ 295 mOsm/kg as being dehydrated).Search methodsStructured search strategies were developed for MEDLINE (OvidSP), EMBASE (OvidSP), CINAHL, LILACS, DARE and HTAdatabases (The Cochrane Library), and the International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (ICTRP). Reference lists of included studiesand identified relevant reviews were checked. Authors of included studies were contacted for details of further studies.Selection criteriaTitles and abstracts were scanned and all potentially relevant studies obtained in full text. Inclusion of full text studies was assessed independently in duplicate, and disagreements resolved by a third author. We wrote to authors of all studies that appeared to have collected data on at least one reference standard and at least one index test, and in at least 10 people aged ≥ 65 years, even where no comparative analysis has been published, requesting original dataset so we could create 2 x 2 tables.Data collection and analysis.Diagnostic accuracy of each test was assessed against the best available reference standard for water-loss dehydration (serum or plasma osmolality cut-off≥295mOsm/kg, serumosmolarity or weight change) within each study. For each index test study data were presented in forest plots of sensitivity and specificity. The primary target condition was water-loss dehydration (including either impending or current water-loss dehydration). Secondary target conditions were intended as current (> 300 mOsm/kg) and impending (295 to 300 mOsm/kg) water-loss dehydration, but restricted to current dehydration in the final review.We conducted bivariate random-effects meta-analyses (Stata/IC, StataCorp) for index tests where there were at least four studies and study datasets could be pooled to construct sensitivity and specificity summary estimates. We assigned the same approach for index tests with continuous outcome data for each of three pre-specified cut-off points investigated.Pre-set minimum sensitivity of a useful test was 60%, minimum specificity 75%. As pre-specifying three cut-offs for each continuoustest may have led to missing a cut-off with useful sensitivity and specificity, we conducted post-hoc exploratory analyses to createreceiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves where there appeared some possibility of a useful cut-off missed by the original three.These analyses enabled assessment of which tests may be worth assessing in further research. A further exploratory analysis assessed the value of combining the best two index tests where each had some individual predictive ability.Main resultsThere were few published studies of the diagnostic accuracy of state (one time), minimally invasive clinical symptoms, signs or tests tobe used as screening tests for detecting water-loss dehydration in older people. Therefore, to complete this review we sought, analysed and included raw datasets that included a reference standard and an index test in people aged ≥ 65 years.We included three studies with published diagnostic accuracy data and a further 21 studies provided datasets that we analysed. Weassessed 67 tests (at three cut-offs for each continuous outcome) for diagnostic accuracy of water-loss dehydration (primary targetcondition) and of current dehydration (secondary target condition).Only three tests showed any ability to diagnose water-loss dehydration (including both impending and current water-loss dehydration) as stand-alone tests: expressing fatigue (sensitivity 0.71 (95% CI 0.29 to 0.96), specificity 0.75 (95% CI 0.63 to 0.85), in one study with 71 participants, but two additional studies had lower sensitivity); missing drinks between meals (sensitivity 1.00 (95% CI 0.59 to 1.00), specificity 0.77 (95% CI 0.64 to 0.86), in one study with 71 participants) and BIA resistance at 50 kHz (sensitivities 1.00 (95% CI 0.48 to 1.00) and 0.71 (95% CI 0.44 to 0.90) and specificities of 1.00 (95% CI 0.69 to 1.00) and 0.80 (95% CI 0.28 to 0.99) in 15 and 22 people respectively for two studies, but with sensitivities of 0.54 (95% CI 0.25 to 0.81) and 0.69 (95% CI 0.56 to 0.79) and specificities of 0.50 (95% CI 0.16 to 0.84) and 0.19 (95% CI 0.17 to 0.21) in 21 and 1947 people respectively in two other studies). In post-hoc ROC plots drinks intake, urine osmolality and axillial moisture also showed limited diagnostic accuracy. No test was consistently useful in more than one study.Combining two tests so that an individual both missed some drinks between meals and expressed fatigue was sensitive at 0.71 (95%CI 0.29 to 0.96) and specific at 0.92 (95% CI 0.83 to 0.97).There was sufficient evidence to suggest that several stand-alone tests often used to assess dehydration in older people (including fluid intake, urine specific gravity, urine colour, urine volume, heart rate, dry mouth, feeling thirsty and BIA assessment of intracellular water or extracellular water) are not useful, and should not be relied on individually as ways of assessing presence or absence of dehydration in older people.No tests were found consistently useful in diagnosing current water-loss dehydration.Authors’ conclusionsThere is limited evidence of the diagnostic utility of any individual clinical symptom, sign or test or combination of tests to indicatewater-loss dehydration in older people. Individual tests should not be used in this population to indicate dehydration; they miss a highproportion of people with dehydration, and wrongly label those who are adequately hydrated.Promising tests identified by this review need to be further assessed, as do new methods in development. Combining several tests may improve diagnostic accuracy