The most dangerous hospital or the most dangerous equation?

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Hospital mortality rates are one of the most frequently selected indicators for measuring the performance of NHS Trusts. A recent article in a national newspaper named the hospital with the highest or lowest mortality in the 2005/6 financial year; a report by the organization Dr Foster Intelligence provided information with regard to the performance of all NHS Trusts in England.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Basic statistical theory and computer simulations were used to explore the relationship between the variations in the performance of NHS Trusts and the sizes of the Trusts. Data of hospital standardised mortality ratio (HSMR) of 152 English NHS Trusts for 2005/6 were re-analysed.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A close examination of the information reveals a pattern which is consistent with a statistical phenomenon, discovered by the French mathematician de Moivre nearly 300 years ago, described in every introductory statistics textbook: namely that variation in performance indicators is expected to be greater in small Trusts and smaller in large Trusts. From a statistical viewpoint, the number of deaths in a hospital is not in proportion to the size of the hospital, but is proportional to the square root of its size. Therefore, it is not surprising to note that small hospitals are more likely to occur at the top and the bottom of league tables, whilst mortality rates are independent of hospital sizes.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This statistical phenomenon needs to be taken into account in the comparison of hospital Trusts performance, especially with regard to policy decisions.</p

Altered perivascular fibroblast activity precedes ALS disease onset

Apart from well-defined factors in neuronal cells1, only a few reports consider that the variability of sporadic amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) progression can depend on less-defined contributions from glia2,3 and blood vessels4. In this study we use an expression-weighted cell-type enrichment method to infer cell activity in spinal cord samples from patients with sporadic ALS and mouse models of this disease. Here we report that patients with sporadic ALS present cell activity patterns consistent with two mouse models in which enrichments of vascular cell genes preceded microglial response. Notably, during the presymptomatic stage, perivascular fibroblast cells showed the strongest gene enrichments, and their marker proteins SPP1 and COL6A1 accumulated in enlarged perivascular spaces in patients with sporadic ALS. Moreover, in plasma of 574 patients with ALS from four independent cohorts, increased levels of SPP1 at disease diagnosis repeatedly predicted shorter survival with stronger effect than the established risk factors of bulbar onset or neurofilament levels in cerebrospinal fluid. We propose that the activity of the recently discovered perivascular fibroblast can predict survival of patients with ALS and provide a new conceptual framework to re-evaluate definitions of ALS etiology

Unravelling the effects of age, period and cohort on metabolic syndrome components in a Taiwanese population using partial least squares regression

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>We investigate whether the changing environment caused by rapid economic growth yielded differential effects for successive Taiwanese generations on 8 components of metabolic syndrome (MetS): body mass index (BMI), systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), fasting plasma glucose (FPG), triglycerides (TG), high-density lipoprotein (HDL), Low-density lipoproteins (LDL) and uric acid (UA).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>To assess the impact of age, birth year and year of examination on MetS components, we used partial least squares regression to analyze data collected by Mei-Jaw clinics in Taiwan in years 1996 and 2006. Confounders, such as the number of years in formal education, alcohol intake, smoking history status, and betel-nut chewing were adjusted for.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>As the age of individuals increased, the values of components generally increased except for UA. Men born after 1970 had lower FPG, lower BMI, lower DBP, lower TG, Lower LDL and greater HDL; women born after 1970 had lower BMI, lower DBP, lower TG, Lower LDL and greater HDL and UA. There is a similar pattern between the trend in levels of metabolic syndrome components against birth year of birth and economic growth in Taiwan.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>We found cohort effects in some MetS components, suggesting associations between the changing environment and health outcomes in later life. This ecological association is worthy of further investigation.</p

A New Approach to Age-Period-Cohort Analysis Using Partial Least Squares Regression: The Trend in Blood Pressure in the Glasgow Alumni Cohort

Due to a problem of identification, how to estimate the distinct effects of age, time period and cohort has been a controversial issue in the analysis of trends in health outcomes in epidemiology. In this study, we propose a novel approach, partial least squares (PLS) analysis, to separate the effects of age, period, and cohort. Our example for illustration is taken from the Glasgow Alumni cohort. A total of 15,322 students (11,755 men and 3,567 women) received medical screening at the Glasgow University between 1948 and 1968. The aim is to investigate the secular trends in blood pressure over 1925 and 1950 while taking into account the year of examination and age at examination. We excluded students born before 1925 or aged over 25 years at examination and those with missing values in confounders from the analyses, resulting in 12,546 and 12,516 students for analysis of systolic and diastolic blood pressure, respectively. PLS analysis shows that both systolic and diastolic blood pressure increased with students' age, and students born later had on average lower blood pressure (SBP: −0.17 mmHg/per year [95% confidence intervals: −0.19 to −0.15] for men and −0.25 [−0.28 to −0.22] for women; DBP: −0.14 [−0.15 to −0.13] for men; −0.09 [−0.11 to −0.07] for women). PLS also shows a decreasing trend in blood pressure over the examination period. As identification is not a problem for PLS, it provides a flexible modelling strategy for age-period-cohort analysis. More emphasis is then required to clarify the substantive and conceptual issues surrounding the definitions and interpretations of age, period and cohort effects

Adjustment for time-invariant and time-varying confounders in ‘unexplained residuals’ models for longitudinal data within a causal framework and associated challenges

‘Unexplained residuals’ models have been used within lifecourse epidemiology to model an exposure measured longitudinally at several time points in relation to a distal outcome. It has been claimed that these models have several advantages, including: the ability to estimate multiple total causal effects in a single model, and additional insight into the effect on the outcome of greater-than-expected increases in the exposure compared to traditional regression methods. We evaluate these properties and prove mathematically how adjustment for confounding variables must be made within this modelling framework. Importantly, we explicitly place unexplained residual models in a causal framework using directed acyclic graphs. This allows for theoretical justification of appropriate confounder adjustment and provides a framework for extending our results to more complex scenarios than those examined in this paper. We also discuss several interpretational issues relating to unexplained residual models within a causal framework. We argue that unexplained residual models offer no additional insights compared to traditional regression methods, and, in fact, are more challenging to implement; moreover, they artificially reduce estimated standard errors. Consequently, we conclude that unexplained residual models, if used, must be implemented with great care

Extracellular histone H1 is neurotoxic and drives a pro-inflammatory response in microglia

In neurodegenerative conditions and following brain trauma it is not understood why neurons die while astrocytes and microglia survive and adopt pro-inflammatory phenotypes. We show here that the damaged adult brain releases diffusible factors that can kill cortical neurons and we have identified histone H1 as a major extracellular candidate that causes neurotoxicity and activation of the innate immune system. Extracellular core histones H2A, H2B H3 and H4 were not neurotoxic. Innate immunity in the central nervous system is mediated through microglial cells and we show here for the first time that histone H1 promotes their survival, up-regulates MHC class II antigen expression and is a powerful microglial chemoattractant. We propose that when the central nervous system is degenerating, histone H1 drives a positive feedback loop that drives further degeneration and activation of immune defences which can themselves be damaging. We suggest that histone H1 acts as an antimicrobial peptide and kills neurons through mitochondrial damage and apoptosis. © 2013 Gilthorpe JD et al

Intrathecal treatment trial of rituximab in progressive MS: An open-label phase 1b study

OBJECTIVES: To perform a phase 1b assessment of the safety and feasibility of intrathecally delivered rituximab as a treatment for progressive multiple sclerosis (PMS) and to evaluate the effect of treatment on disability and CSF biomarkers during a 1-year follow-up period. METHODS: Three doses of rituximab (25 mg with a 1-week interval) were administered in 23 patients with PMS via a ventricular catheter inserted into the right frontal horn and connected to a subcutaneous Ommaya reservoir. Follow-ups were performed at 1, 3, 6, 9, and 12 months. RESULTS: Mild to moderate vertigo and nausea were common but temporary adverse events associated with intrathecal rituximab infusion, which was otherwise well tolerated. The only severe adverse event was a case of low-virulent bacterial meningitis that was treated effectively. Of 7 clinical assessments, only 1 showed statistically significant improvement 1 year after treatment. No treatment effect was observed during the follow-up period among 6 CSF biomarkers. CONCLUSIONS: Intrathecal administration of rituximab was well tolerated. However, it may involve a risk for injection-related infections. The lack of a control group precludes conclusions being drawn regarding treatment efficacy. CLINICALTRIALSGOV IDENTIFIER: NCT01719159. CLASSIFICATION OF EVIDENCE: This study provides Class IV evidence that intrathecal rituximab treatment is well tolerated and feasible in PMS but involves a risk of severe infections