Underwriting Apophenia and Cryptids: Are Cycles Statistical Figments of our Imagination?

This paper re-examines the evidence in favour of the existence of underwriting cycles in property and casualty insurance and their economical significance. Using a meta-analysis of published papers in the area of insurance economics, we show that the evidence supporting the existence of underwriting cycles is misleading. There is, in fact, little evidence in favour of insurance cycles with a linear autoregressive character. This means that any cyclicality in firm profitability in the property and casualty insurance industry is not predictable in a classical econometric framework. It follows that pricing in the property and casualty insurance industry is not incompatible with that of a competitive market

Measurement-based quantum control of mechanical motion

Controlling a quantum system based on the observation of its dynamics is inevitably complicated by the backaction of the measurement process. Efficient measurements, however, maximize the amount of information gained per disturbance incurred. Real-time feedback then enables both canceling the measurement's backaction and controlling the evolution of the quantum state. While such measurement-based quantum control has been demonstrated in the clean settings of cavity and circuit quantum electrodynamics, its application to motional degrees of freedom has remained elusive. Here we show measurement-based quantum control of the motion of a millimetre-sized membrane resonator. An optomechanical transducer resolves the zero-point motion of the soft-clamped resonator in a fraction of its millisecond coherence time, with an overall measurement efficiency close to unity. We use this position record to feedback-cool a resonator mode to its quantum ground state (residual thermal occupation n = 0.29 +- 0.03), 9 dB below the quantum backaction limit of sideband cooling, and six orders of magnitude below the equilibrium occupation of its thermal environment. This realizes a long-standing goal in the field, and adds position and momentum to the degrees of freedom amenable to measurement-based quantum control, with potential applications in quantum information processing and gravitational wave detectors.Comment: New version with corrected detection efficiency as determined with a NIST-calibrated photodiode, added references and revised structure. Main conclusions are identical. 41 pages, 18 figure

Continuous-wave room-temperature diamond maser

The maser, older sibling of the laser, has been confined to relative obscurity due to its reliance on cryogenic refrigeration and high-vacuum systems. Despite this it has found application in deep-space communications and radio astronomy due to its unparalleled performance as a low-noise amplifier and oscillator. The recent demonstration of a room-temperature solid- state maser exploiting photo-excited triplet states in organic pentacene molecules paves the way for a new class of maser that could find applications in medicine, security and sensing, taking advantage of its sensitivity and low noise. However, to date, only pulsed operation has been observed in this system. Furthermore, organic maser molecules have poor thermal and mechanical properties, and their triplet sub-level decay rates make continuous emission challenging: alternative materials are therefore required. Therefore, inorganic materials containing spin-defects such as diamond and silicon carbide have been proposed. Here we report a continuous-wave (CW) room-temperature maser oscillator using optically pumped charged nitrogen-vacancy (NV) defect centres in diamond. This demonstration unlocks the potential of room-temperature solid-state masers for use in a new generation of microwave devices.Comment: 7 pages, 4 figure

Cost-effectiveness of public-health policy options in the presence of pretreatment NNRTI drug resistance in sub-Saharan Africa: a modelling study

BACKGROUND: There is concern over increasing prevalence of non-nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI) resistance in people initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) in low-income and middle-income countries. We assessed the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of alternative public health responses in countries in sub-Saharan Africa where the prevalence of pretreatment drug resistance to NNRTIs is high. METHODS: The HIV Synthesis Model is an individual-based simulation model of sexual HIV transmission, progression, and the effect of ART in adults, which is based on extensive published data sources and considers specific drugs and resistance mutations. We used this model to generate multiple setting scenarios mimicking those in sub-Saharan Africa and considered the prevalence of pretreatment NNRTI drug resistance in 2017. We then compared effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of alternative policy options. We took a 20 year time horizon, used a cost effectiveness threshold of US$500 per DALY averted, and discounted DALYs and costs at 3% per year. FINDINGS: A transition to use of a dolutegravir as a first-line regimen in all new ART initiators is the option predicted to produce the most health benefits, resulting in a reduction of about 1 death per year per 100 people on ART over the next 20 years in a situation in which more than 10% of ART initiators have NNRTI resistance. The negative effect on population health of postponing the transition to dolutegravir increases substantially with higher prevalence of HIV drug resistance to NNRTI in ART initiators. Because of the reduced risk of resistance acquisition with dolutegravir-based regimens and reduced use of expensive second-line boosted protease inhibitor regimens, this policy option is also predicted to lead to a reduction of overall programme cost. INTERPRETATION: A future transition from first-line regimens containing efavirenz to regimens containing dolutegravir formulations in adult ART initiators is predicted to be effective and cost-effective in low-income settings in sub-Saharan Africa at any prevalence of pre-ART NNRTI resistance. The urgency of the transition will depend largely on the country-specific prevalence of NNRTI resistance. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, World Health Organization

Measurement of the inclusive and dijet cross-sections of b-jets in pp collisions at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV with the ATLAS detector

The inclusive and dijet production cross-sections have been measured for jets containing b-hadrons (b-jets) in proton-proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of sqrt(s) = 7 TeV, using the ATLAS detector at the LHC. The measurements use data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 34 pb^-1. The b-jets are identified using either a lifetime-based method, where secondary decay vertices of b-hadrons in jets are reconstructed using information from the tracking detectors, or a muon-based method where the presence of a muon is used to identify semileptonic decays of b-hadrons inside jets. The inclusive b-jet cross-section is measured as a function of transverse momentum in the range 20 < pT < 400 GeV and rapidity in the range |y| < 2.1. The bbbar-dijet cross-section is measured as a function of the dijet invariant mass in the range 110 < m_jj < 760 GeV, the azimuthal angle difference between the two jets and the angular variable chi in two dijet mass regions. The results are compared with next-to-leading-order QCD predictions. Good agreement is observed between the measured cross-sections and the predictions obtained using POWHEG + Pythia. MC@NLO + Herwig shows good agreement with the measured bbbar-dijet cross-section. However, it does not reproduce the measured inclusive cross-section well, particularly for central b-jets with large transverse momenta.Comment: 10 pages plus author list (21 pages total), 8 figures, 1 table, final version published in European Physical Journal

Observation of associated near-side and away-side long-range correlations in √sNN=5.02 TeV proton-lead collisions with the ATLAS detector

Two-particle correlations in relative azimuthal angle (Δϕ) and pseudorapidity (Δη) are measured in √sNN=5.02  TeV p+Pb collisions using the ATLAS detector at the LHC. The measurements are performed using approximately 1  μb-1 of data as a function of transverse momentum (pT) and the transverse energy (ΣETPb) summed over 3.1<η<4.9 in the direction of the Pb beam. The correlation function, constructed from charged particles, exhibits a long-range (2<|Δη|<5) “near-side” (Δϕ∼0) correlation that grows rapidly with increasing ΣETPb. A long-range “away-side” (Δϕ∼π) correlation, obtained by subtracting the expected contributions from recoiling dijets and other sources estimated using events with small ΣETPb, is found to match the near-side correlation in magnitude, shape (in Δη and Δϕ) and ΣETPb dependence. The resultant Δϕ correlation is approximately symmetric about π/2, and is consistent with a dominant cos⁡2Δϕ modulation for all ΣETPb ranges and particle pT

Search for direct pair production of the top squark in all-hadronic final states in proton-proton collisions at s√=8 TeV with the ATLAS detector

The results of a search for direct pair production of the scalar partner to the top quark using an integrated luminosity of 20.1fb−1 of proton–proton collision data at √s = 8 TeV recorded with the ATLAS detector at the LHC are reported. The top squark is assumed to decay via t˜→tχ˜01 or t˜→ bχ˜±1 →bW(∗)χ˜01 , where χ˜01 (χ˜±1 ) denotes the lightest neutralino (chargino) in supersymmetric models. The search targets a fully-hadronic final state in events with four or more jets and large missing transverse momentum. No significant excess over the Standard Model background prediction is observed, and exclusion limits are reported in terms of the top squark and neutralino masses and as a function of the branching fraction of t˜ → tχ˜01 . For a branching fraction of 100%, top squark masses in the range 270–645 GeV are excluded for χ˜01 masses below 30 GeV. For a branching fraction of 50% to either t˜ → tχ˜01 or t˜ → bχ˜±1 , and assuming the χ˜±1 mass to be twice the χ˜01 mass, top squark masses in the range 250–550 GeV are excluded for χ˜01 masses below 60 GeV

Rule-based modelling provides an extendable framework for comparing candidate mechanisms underpinning clathrin polymerisation

Abstract Polymerisation of clathrin is a key process that underlies clathrin-mediated endocytosis. Clathrin-coated vesicles are responsible for cell internalization of external substances required for normal homeostasis and life –sustaining activity. There are several hypotheses describing formation of closed clathrin structures. According to one of the proposed mechanisms cage formation may start from a flat lattice buildup on the cellular membrane, which is later transformed into a curved structure. Creation of the curved surface requires rearrangement of the lattice, induced by additional molecular mechanisms. Different potential mechanisms require a modeling framework that can be easily modified to compare between them. We created an extendable rule-based model that describes polymerisation of clathrin molecules and various scenarios of cage formation. Using Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) we obtained parameter sets describing clathrin pentagon closure and the emergence/production and closure of large-size clathrin cages/vesicles. We were able to demonstrate that the model can reproduce budding of the clathrin cage from an initial flat array

Histone Deacetylase Inhibitor Romidepsin Induces HIV Expression in CD4 T Cells from Patients on Suppressive Antiretroviral Therapy at Concentrations Achieved by Clinical Dosing

Persistent latent reservoir of replication-competent proviruses in memory CD4 T cells is a major obstacle to curing HIV infection. Pharmacological activation of HIV expression in latently infected cells is being explored as one of the strategies to deplete the latent HIV reservoir. In this study, we characterized the ability of romidepsin (RMD), a histone deacetylase inhibitor approved for the treatment of T-cell lymphomas, to activate the expression of latent HIV. In an in vitro T-cell model of HIV latency, RMD was the most potent inducer of HIV (EC50 = 4.5 nM) compared with vorinostat (VOR; EC50 = 3,950 nM) and other histone deacetylase (HDAC) inhibitors in clinical development including panobinostat (PNB; EC50 = 10 nM). The HIV induction potencies of RMD, VOR, and PNB paralleled their inhibitory activities against multiple human HDAC isoenzymes. In both resting and memory CD4 T cells isolated from HIV-infected patients on suppressive combination antiretroviral therapy (cART), a 4-hour exposure to 40 nM RMD induced a mean 6-fold increase in intracellular HIV RNA levels, whereas a 24-hour treatment with 1 μM VOR resulted in 2- to 3-fold increases. RMD-induced intracellular HIV RNA expression persisted for 48 hours and correlated with sustained inhibition of cell-associated HDAC activity. By comparison, the induction of HIV RNA by VOR and PNB was transient and diminished after 24 hours. RMD also increased levels of extracellular HIV RNA and virions from both memory and resting CD4 T-cell cultures. The activation of HIV expression was observed at RMD concentrations below the drug plasma levels achieved by doses used in patients treated for T-cell lymphomas. In conclusion, RMD induces HIV expression ex vivo at concentrations that can be achieved clinically, indicating that the drug may reactivate latent HIV in patients on suppressive cART

Duffy antigen receptor for chemokines mediates chemokine endocytosis through a macropinocytosis-like process in endothelial cells

Background: The Duffy antigen receptor for chemokines (DARC) shows high affinity binding to multiple inflammatory CC and CXC chemokines and is expressed by erythrocytes and endothelial cells. Recent evidence suggests that endothelial DARC facilitates chemokine transcytosis to promote neutrophil recruitment. However, the mechanism of chemokine endocytosis by DARC remains unclear. Methodology/Principal Findings: We investigated the role of several endocytic pathways in DARC-mediated ligand internalization. Here we report that, although DARC co-localizes with caveolin-1 in endothelial cells, caveolin-1 is dispensable for DARC-mediated 125I-CXCL1 endocytosis as knockdown of caveolin-1 failed to inhibit ligand internalization. 125I-CXCL1 endocytosis by DARC was also independent of clathrin and flotillin-1 but required cholesterol and was, in part, inhibited by silencing Dynamin II expression. 125I-CXCL1 endocytosis was inhibited by amiloride, cytochalasin D, and the PKC inhibitor Gö6976 whereas Platelet Derived Growth Factor (PDGF) enhanced ligand internalization through DARC. The majority of DARC-ligand interactions occurred on the endothelial surface, with DARC identified along plasma membrane extensions with the appearance of ruffles, supporting the concept that DARC provides a high affinity scaffolding function for surface retention of chemokines on endothelial cells. Conclusions/Significance: These results show DARC-mediated chemokine endocytosis occurs through a macropinocytosis-like process in endothelial cells and caveolin-1 is dispensable for CXCL1 internalization. © 2011 Zhao et al