Underwriting Apophenia and Cryptids: Are Cycles Statistical Figments of our Imagination?

This paper re-examines the evidence in favour of the existence of underwriting cycles in property and casualty insurance and their economical significance. Using a meta-analysis of published papers in the area of insurance economics, we show that the evidence supporting the existence of underwriting cycles is misleading. There is, in fact, little evidence in favour of insurance cycles with a linear autoregressive character. This means that any cyclicality in firm profitability in the property and casualty insurance industry is not predictable in a classical econometric framework. It follows that pricing in the property and casualty insurance industry is not incompatible with that of a competitive market

Continuous-wave room-temperature diamond maser

The maser, older sibling of the laser, has been confined to relative obscurity due to its reliance on cryogenic refrigeration and high-vacuum systems. Despite this it has found application in deep-space communications and radio astronomy due to its unparalleled performance as a low-noise amplifier and oscillator. The recent demonstration of a room-temperature solid- state maser exploiting photo-excited triplet states in organic pentacene molecules paves the way for a new class of maser that could find applications in medicine, security and sensing, taking advantage of its sensitivity and low noise. However, to date, only pulsed operation has been observed in this system. Furthermore, organic maser molecules have poor thermal and mechanical properties, and their triplet sub-level decay rates make continuous emission challenging: alternative materials are therefore required. Therefore, inorganic materials containing spin-defects such as diamond and silicon carbide have been proposed. Here we report a continuous-wave (CW) room-temperature maser oscillator using optically pumped charged nitrogen-vacancy (NV) defect centres in diamond. This demonstration unlocks the potential of room-temperature solid-state masers for use in a new generation of microwave devices.Comment: 7 pages, 4 figure

Effects of a Caffeine-Containing Energy Drink on Simulated Soccer Performance

[Background] To investigate the effects of a caffeine-containing energy drink on soccer performance during a simulated game. A second purpose was to assess the post-exercise urine caffeine concentration derived from the energy drink intake. [Methodology/Principal Findings] Nineteen semiprofessional soccer players ingested 630±52 mL of a commercially available energy drink (sugar-free Red Bull®) to provide 3 mg of caffeine per kg of body mass, or a decaffeinated control drink (0 mg/kg). After sixty minutes they performed a 15-s maximal jump test, a repeated sprint test (7×30 m; 30 s of active recovery) and played a simulated soccer game. Individual running distance and speed during the game were measured using global positioning satellite (GPS) devices. In comparison to the control drink, the ingestion of the energy drink increased mean jump height in the jump test (34.7±4.7 v 35.8±5.5 cm; P<0.05), mean running speed during the sprint test (25.6±2.1 v 26.3±1.8 km · h−1; P<0.05) and total distance covered at a speed higher than 13 km · h−1 during the game (1205±289 v 1436±326 m; P<0.05). In addition, the energy drink increased the number of sprints during the whole game (30±10 v 24±8; P<0.05). Post-exercise urine caffeine concentration was higher after the energy drink than after the control drink (4.1±1.0 v 0.1±0.1 µg · mL−1; P<0.05). [Conclusions/significance] A caffeine-containing energy drink in a dose equivalent to 3 mg/kg increased the ability to repeatedly sprint and the distance covered at high intensity during a simulated soccer game. In addition, the caffeinated energy drink increased jump height which may represent a meaningful improvement for headers or when players are competing for a ball

Mapping Oil and Gas Development Potential in the US Intermountain West and Estimating Impacts to Species

Many studies have quantified the indirect effect of hydrocarbon-based economies on climate change and biodiversity, concluding that a significant proportion of species will be threatened with extinction. However, few studies have measured the direct effect of new energy production infrastructure on species persistence. in the western US and translate the build-out scenarios into estimated impacts on sage-grouse. We project that future oil and gas development will cause a 7–19 percent decline from 2007 sage-grouse lek population counts and impact 3.7 million ha of sagebrush shrublands and 1.1 million ha of grasslands in the study area.Maps of where oil and gas development is anticipated in the US Intermountain West can be used by decision-makers intent on minimizing impacts to sage-grouse. This analysis also provides a general framework for using predictive models and build-out scenarios to anticipate impacts to species. These predictive models and build-out scenarios allow tradeoffs to be considered between species conservation and energy development prior to implementation

The spatial context of clinic-reported sexually transmitted infection in Hong Kong

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The incidence and prevalence of sexually transmitted infection (STI) in China has been on the rise in the past decade. Delineation of epidemiologic pattern is often hampered by its uneven distribution. Spatial distribution is often a neglected aspect of STI research, the description of which may enhance epidemiologic surveillance and inform service development.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Over a one month-period, all first time attendees of 6 public STI clinics in Hong Kong were interviewed before clinical consultation using a standard questionnaire to assess their demographic, clinical and behavioural characteristics. A GIS (geographic information system)-based approach was adopted with mapping performed. The cases attending the clinics in different locations were profiled. A comparison was made between neighbourhood cases (patients living near a clinic) and distant cases (those farther off), by calculating the odds ratio for demographic, behavioural and geographic characteristics.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Of the 1142 STI patients evaluated, the residence locations of 1029 (90.1%) could be geocoded, of which 95.6% were ethnic Chinese and 63.4% male. Geographically only about a quarter lived in the same district as the clinic. STI patients aged 55 or above were more likely to be living in the vicinity of the clinic, located in the same or adjacent tertiary planning unit (a small geographic unit below district level). A majority of patients came from locations a few kilometers from the clinic, the distance of which varies between clinics. Overall, more syphilis cases were reported in patients residing in the same or adjacent tertiary planning unit, while distant cases tended to give a higher risk of inconsistent condom use. There were otherwise no significant clinical and epidemiologic differences between neighbourhood and distant STI cases.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>There was no specific relationship between STI and the residence location of patients as regards their clinical and epidemiologic characteristics in the territory of Hong Kong. Older STI patients were however more inclined to attend the nearby STI clinics. Most patients have travelled a variable distance to access the STI service. The relationship between STI clinic cases and distance could be a complex issue intertwined between psychosocial characteristics and STI service coverage.</p

Effect of a Community Popular Opinion Leader HIV/STI Intervention on Stigma in Urban, Coastal Peru

Evaluating interventions that reduce HIV stigma may help to craft effective stigma-reduction programs. This study evaluates the effects of a community popular opinion leader HIV/STI intervention on stigma in urban, coastal Peru. Mixed effects modeling was used to analyze data on 3,049 participants from the Peru site of the NIHM collaborative trial. Analyses looked at differences between the comparison and intervention groups on a stigma index from baseline to 12- and 24-month follow-up. Sub-analyses were conducted on heterosexual-identified men (esquineros), homosexual-identified men (homosexuales), and socially marginalized women (movidas). Compared to participants in the comparison group, intervention participants reported lower levels of stigma at 12- and 24-month follow-up. Similar results were found within esquineros and homosexuales. No significant differences were found within movidas. Findings suggest that interventions designed to normalize HIV prevention behaviors and HIV communication can reduce HIV-related stigma and change community norms

The Cyclophilin-Binding Agent Sanglifehrin A Is a Dendritic Cell Chemokine and Migration Inhibitor

Sanglifehrin A (SFA) is a cyclophilin-binding immunosuppressant but the immunobiology of action is poorly understood. We and others have reported that SFA inhibits IL-12 production and antigen uptake in dendritic cells (DC) and exhibits lower activity against lymphocytes. Here we show that SFA suppresses DC chemokine production and migration. Gene expression analysis and subsequent protein level confirmation revealed that SFA suppressed CCL5, CCL17, CCL19, CXCL9 and CXCL10 expression in human monocyte-derived DC (moDC). A systems biology analysis, Onto Express, confirmed that SFA interferes with chemokine-chemokine receptor gene expression with the highest impact. Direct comparison with the related agent cyclosporine A (CsA) and dexamethasone indicated that SFA uniquely suppresses moDC chemokine expression. Competitive experiments with a 100-fold molar excess of CsA and with N-Methyl-Val-4-cyclosporin, representing a nonimmunosuppressive derivative of CsA indicated chemokine suppression through a cyclophilin-A independent pathway. Functional assays confirmed reduced migration of CD4+ Tcells and moDCs to supernatant of SFA-exposed moDCs. Vice versa, SFA-exposed moDC exhibited reduced migration against CCL19. Moreover, SFA suppressed expression of the ectoenzyme CD38 that was reported to regulate DC migration and cytokine production. These results identify SFA as a DC chemokine and migration inhibitor and provide novel insight into the immunobiology of SFA

Iron Incorporation and Post-Malaria Anaemia

BACKGROUND: Iron supplementation is employed to treat post-malarial anaemia in environments where iron deficiency is common. Malaria induces an intense inflammatory reaction that stalls reticulo-endothelial macrophagal iron recycling from haemolysed red blood cells and inhibits oral iron absorption, but the magnitude and duration of these effects are unclear. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We examined the red blood cell incorporation of oral administered stable isotopes of iron and compared incorporation between age matched 18 to 36 months old children with either anaemia post-malaria (n = 37) or presumed iron deficiency anaemia alone (n = 36). All children were supplemented for 30 days with 2 mg/kg elemental iron as liquid iron sulphate and administered (57)Fe and (58)Fe on days 1 and 15 of supplementation respectively. (57)Fe and(58)Fe incorporation were significantly reduced (8% vs. 28%: p<0.001 and 14% vs. 26%: p = 0.045) in the malaria vs. non-malaria groups. There was a significantly greater haemoglobin response in the malaria group at both day 15 (p = 0.001) and 30 (p<0.000) with a regression analysis estimated greater change in haemoglobin of 7.2 g/l (s.e. 2.0) and 10.1 g/l (s.e. 2.5) respectively. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: Post-malaria anaemia is associated with a better haemoglobin recovery despite a significant depressant effect on oral iron incorporation which may indicate that early erythropoetic iron need is met by iron recycling rather than oral iron. Supplemental iron administration is of questionable utility within 2 weeks of clinical malaria in children with mild or moderate anaemia

Identifying and Prioritizing Greater Sage-Grouse Nesting and Brood-Rearing Habitat for Conservation in Human-Modified Landscapes

BACKGROUND: Balancing animal conservation and human use of the landscape is an ongoing scientific and practical challenge throughout the world. We investigated reproductive success in female greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) relative to seasonal patterns of resource selection, with the larger goal of developing a spatially-explicit framework for managing human activity and sage-grouse conservation at the landscape level. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We integrated field-observation, Global Positioning Systems telemetry, and statistical modeling to quantify the spatial pattern of occurrence and risk during nesting and brood-rearing. We linked occurrence and risk models to provide spatially-explicit indices of habitat-performance relationships. As part of the analysis, we offer novel biological information on resource selection during egg-laying, incubation, and night. The spatial pattern of occurrence during all reproductive phases was driven largely by selection or avoidance of terrain features and vegetation, with little variation explained by anthropogenic features. Specifically, sage-grouse consistently avoided rough terrain, selected for moderate shrub cover at the patch level (within 90 m(2)), and selected for mesic habitat in mid and late brood-rearing phases. In contrast, risk of nest and brood failure was structured by proximity to anthropogenic features including natural gas wells and human-created mesic areas, as well as vegetation features such as shrub cover. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Risk in this and perhaps other human-modified landscapes is a top-down (i.e., human-mediated) process that would most effectively be minimized by developing a better understanding of specific mechanisms (e.g., predator subsidization) driving observed patterns, and using habitat-performance indices such as those developed herein for spatially-explicit guidance of conservation intervention. Working under the hypothesis that industrial activity structures risk by enhancing predator abundance or effectiveness, we offer specific recommendations for maintaining high-performance habitat and reducing low-performance habitat, particularly relative to the nesting phase, by managing key high-risk anthropogenic features such as industrial infrastructure and water developments