Estimating uncertainty in ecosystem budget calculations

© The Authors, 2010. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial License. The definitive version was published in Ecosystems 13 (2010): 239-248, doi:10.1007/s10021-010-9315-8.Ecosystem nutrient budgets often report values for pools and fluxes without any indication of uncertainty, which makes it difficult to evaluate the significance of findings or make comparisons across systems. We present an example, implemented in Excel, of a Monte Carlo approach to estimating error in calculating the N content of vegetation at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in New Hampshire. The total N content of trees was estimated at 847 kg ha−1 with an uncertainty of 8%, expressed as the standard deviation divided by the mean (the coefficient of variation). The individual sources of uncertainty were as follows: uncertainty in allometric equations (5%), uncertainty in tissue N concentrations (3%), uncertainty due to plot variability (6%, based on a sample of 15 plots of 0.05 ha), and uncertainty due to tree diameter measurement error (0.02%). In addition to allowing estimation of uncertainty in budget estimates, this approach can be used to assess which measurements should be improved to reduce uncertainty in the calculated values. This exercise was possible because the uncertainty in the parameters and equations that we used was made available by previous researchers. It is important to provide the error statistics with regression results if they are to be used in later calculations; archiving the data makes resampling analyses possible for future researchers. When conducted using a Monte Carlo framework, the analysis of uncertainty in complex calculations does not have to be difficult and should be standard practice when constructing ecosystem budgets

Determination of the average lifetime of b-baryons

The average lifetime of b-baryons has been studied using 3 × 106 hadronic Z0 decays collected by the DEL-PHI detector at LEP. Three methods have been used, based on the measurement of different observables: the proper decay time distribution of 206 vertices reconstructed with a Λ, a lepton and an oppositely charged pion; the impact parameter distribution of 441 muons with high transverse momentum accompanied by a Λ in the same jet; and the proper decay time distribution of 125 Λc-lepton decay vertices with the Λc exclusively reconstructed through its pKπ, pK0 and Λ3π decay modes. The combined result is: τ(b-baryon) = (1.254-0.109+0.121(stat) ±0.04(syst)-0.05+0.03(syst)) ps where the first systematic error is due to experimental uncertainties and the second to the uncertainties in the modelling of the b-baryon production and semi-leptonic decay. Including the measurement recently published by DELPHI based on a sample of proton-muon vertices, the average b-baryon lifetime is : τ(b-baryon) = (1.255-0.102+0.115(stat) ±0.05) ps. © Springer-Verlag 1996

Updated precision measurement of the average lifetime of B hadrons

The measurement of the average lifetime of B hadrons using inclusively reconstructed secondary vertices has been updated using both an improved processing of previous data and additional statistics from new data. This has reduced the statistical and systematic uncertainties and gives tau(B) = 1.582+/-0.011 (stat.)+/-0.027 (syst.) ps. Combining this result with the previous result based on charged particle impact parameter distributions yields tau(B) = 1.575+/-0.010 (stat.)+/-0.026 (syst.) ps